Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

Escape the British mediocrity with red-hot Desert action....

Racing fans wishing to escape the mediocrity of the British National Hunt season prior to the Cheltenham Festival are in for a treat of sublime proportions on Thursday evening as the Dubai Carnival at Meydan overflows with top-class action.

The highlight of a mouthwatering card is the second leg of the G3 Al Maktoum Challenge at 1810 (GMT), a contest that sees the eagerly-awaited Tapeta debut of Mike De Kock's World Cup contender Bold Silvano (SAf). Not seen in public since his victory in the GI Durban July at Greyville in his South African homeland 187 days ago, he is apparently working well in the Desert with his trainer reporting on his website that, "Bold Silvano is where we want him to be, well on target and still impressive. He makes the move to the all weather and he's short of his best, I'd say 85% ready-but we're expecting a big run."

The son of Silvano (Ger) was honoured as Horse of the Year after defeating stable-mate Irish Flame (SAf) at Greyville, a performance that prompted jockey Anthony Delpech to hail him superior to Vengeance of Rain (Nz), the winner of the 2007 G1 Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba.

Destined to go to post a short-priced favourite, there is no shortage of challengers ready to dent his lofty reputation if De Kock's stable star does not turn up with his A-Game in tow.

I was overly keen on Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando (GB) for last year's World Cup (see previous post: here) but he was never really in the race under Kieren Fallon despite finishing less than 2 lengths adrift of Gloria De Campeao (Brz). Botti has taken a different tact with Team Valor's charge this year, shipping him to Dubai early in order to better acclimatise the colt for a tilt at the £10 million prize.

Reportedly cherry ripe for this reappearance, a further change in tactic from Botti and Valor comes in the form of Hong Kong-based big-race jockey Weichong Marwing, who partnered Asiatic Boy (Arg) to victory in the UAE Derby in 2007. South African-born Marwing will partner the five-year-old for the first time in Thursday's 9.5 furlong event.

Other notable contenders for the G2 event include last year's shock 40/1 G1 Dubai Duty Free victor Al Shemali (GB). Formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute and third in the 2007 Dante won by Authorized (Ire), the chestnut swapped Freemason Lodge for Godolphin at the end of his Classic season and after a disappointing time in the Royal Blue for Saeed bin Suroor, was transferred into the care of UAE based Mubarak bin Shafya, before heading to Ali Rashid Al Raihe prior to last year's carnival. The seven-year-old returns to the scene of his finest hour some 263 days after a spirited third to Lizard's Desire (SAf) and Gloria De Campeao (Brz) in the G1 Singapore International at Kranji in May.

There may be no horses of the calibre of Workforce (GB) in the line-up, but in Interaction (Arg) we have the 2009 Argentine Horse of the Year, and winner of that year's International Grand Prix Carlos Pellegrini - the South American equivalent to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - for former trainer, Buenos Aires based Alfredo Gaitan Dassie.

He was subsequently sent to the tutelage of French maestro Pascal Bary, for whom he has so far managed only one appearance - disappointing in a bog-like Longchamp listed event in September. Unperturbed by that performance, Bary is confident the horse can redeem himself on better ground, and although unproven on a synthetic surface and possibly needing his first run, he should not be discounted from the reckoning.

After landing his 100th Carnival winner last week, Saeed bin Suroor will be hoping for more of the same at this weeks double header and last months comfortable course and distance Handicap victor Spring of Fame (USA) (speed figure 87) is his sole representative here. The ex-Mikael Magnusson five-year-old needs to improve on that, based strictly on the figures, but that is not outside the realms of possibility and as is the case with the majority of the field, he cannot be easily dismissed.

Verdict:
With a distinct lack of pace in the race, there is always the chance of an upset and it is a race to watch with an eye on the future, rather than a meaningful betting proposition. For those inclined to play, it could pay to take a chance on the fitness angle with My Indy (Arg), Spring of Fame and Trois Rois (Fr) all holding a fitness advantage.

I was very keen on Gitano Hernando for last year's event and with a more measured preparation this time around, he has to be in the shake-up come the last Saturday in March. I've had a little nibble in the World Cup ante-post market at 10/1, in the hope that an impressive performance causes his odds to tumble.

Thursday selections (sorry for the unimaginativeness of some)
Race 2 - Roayh (USA)
Race 3 - Mahbooba (Aus)
Race 4 - Telluride (GB)
Race 5 - Alo Pura (GB) - if absent Our Giant (Aus)
Race 6 - Colonial (Ire)
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando (GB)

Good Luck
Hollywood_G

New Pin-Up Girl....Filly in Focus

Raihana (Aus)

(27Aug06 b f)

Elusive Quality (USA) - Esubooh (Aus)

Trainer: Mike De Kock

Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

Breeder: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

Image courtesy: racingweb.co.za

Every horse racing enthusiast will have a different reason for first prying under the stable door into the realm of the Sport of kings; Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum is no exception.

The first cousin of the current ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Khalifa was more at home in the Purebred Arabian sphere, training and riding his horses for marathon distances in the region of 120km through the Middle Eastern desert. Events so taxing they render UK endurance races such as the Cheltenham Gold Cup or even the Grand National void in comparison.

Things changed in 1996 when Sheikh Hamdan – brother to Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid – in an attempt to kindle his cousin’s enthusiasm for the sport that he and his brother, along with their late brother Maktoum bin Rashid, were so in love with from a young age, provided his cousin with four thoroughbred racehorses as a gift.

The quartet were to race in Dubai, and Map of Stars (USA), a son of American superstar stallion Danzig (USA), provided Sheikh Khalifa with his first winner from his very first runner.

From thereon in, the Sheikh has enjoyed success around the World and his enthusiasm for the sport as would be expected, has never waned.

He switched his attention from Dubai to the Southern Hemisphere and in 2000 made the significant acquisition of Sir Clive (NZ), who was purchased in New Zealand prior to his runner-up performance in the New Zealand Derby, and who also filled the same berth in the following years Australian Derby.

During the time of his Oceania successes, Sheikh Mohammed’s Dubai Racing Carnival was increasing in stature and popularity, and Sheikh Khalifa made the decision to expand his “Al Adiyaat” operation, returning to his homeland in 2006 to team up with South African champion trainer Mike De Kock.

It was following on from De Kock’s recommendation that he purchased Candy Critic (Arg), a daughter of Candy Stripes (USA), who had finished second in the 2006 South African Fillies Classic, and she promptly landed the South African Oaks on her first start for new connections.

Rumour has it that De Kock then travelled to South America under instruction of Sheikh Mohammed to purchase the Argentine champion, Husson (Arg).

Instead, the South African returned with a horse that had finished second to Husson in the G1 Gran Premio Gran Criterium at San isidro, Asiatic Boy (Arg).

This was to prove an inspired move, as Asiatic Boy became a flag bearer for the operation at the 2007 Dubai Carnival landing four straight victories, among them the UAE 2000 Guineas and on World Cup night, the UAE Derby by some 11 ½-lengths.

Image courtesy: Wikipedia.org

After a solid, but slightly unremarkable venture to England, where he finished a two-length fourth in the G1 Sussex S. to Ramonti (Fr) and down the field in the G1 Juddmonte International won by Authorized, Asiatic Boy returned to the Middle East with his target the World Cup itself.

Unfortunately for Sheikh Khalifa, Steve Asmussen also had his eye on Dubai’s biggest prize for his stable star Curlin (USA), and the American hero duly obliged, inflicting a 7 3/4-length defeat on his South American-bred challenger.

Asiatic Boy returned to Dubai the following year with ideas of grandeur and the World Cup again the target. After landing Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge in his World Cup warm-up, he was sent off the 2-1 favourite for the last ever race to be run on the Nad Al Sheba dirt, but was never in the race and finished a long way behind the eventual winner and another American raider in the form of Eoin Harty’s ex-Clive Brittain trained Well Armed (USA). 

Sheikh Khalifa’s Yellow & Blue colours have – prior to 10/11 – been carried to victory on an impressive 29 occasions in the past five Dubai seasons, and Lizards Desire (SAf) only narrowly failed to end the quest for that elusive victory in the World’s richest race when narrowly beaten in a three way photograph for the $10million prize at Meydan in March of last year.

This years big World Cup hope appears to be the Durban July winner Bold Silvano (SAf), of whom De Kock told the Racing Post;

“...We are really looking forward to campaigning him in Dubai, when we'll certainly try him on the Tapeta - he's really pleased us working on the surface. We'll aim him at the Dubai World Cup and probably take in at least two legs of the Maktoum Challenge. He's exciting us...”

However, De Kock is also targeting the World’s richest event for two more of his stable stars; Musir (Aus), who was very impressive landing both the UAE 2000 Guineas and UAE Derby in 2010, and the filly who finished runner-up to her stable mate in the latter contest Raihana (Aus).

Raihana, by Elusive Quality (USA) is the first foal of the Sunday Silence (USA) mare Esubooh (Aus), purchased by Sheikh Khalifa as a yearling at the 2003 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale for $350,000.

The mare did not race but hails from an imposing bloodline being out of the Danehill (USA) mare Felicitation (Aus), herself a daughter of champion Emancipation (Aus).

With a WerkNick™ rating of A+ using the Elusive Quality – Sunday Silence cross. (view eNick), the combination is also responsible for another UAE Oaks winner in the form of Godolphin’s 2009 victor Devotee (USA) - another daughter of Elusive Quality, out of the Sunday Silence mare Danuta (USA).

Bred in Australia, Raihana was retained by Sheikh Khalifa and was sent to De Kock to begin her career in South Africa. Finishing runner-up in a 2yo Scottsville maiden on debut, she soon opened her account with a facile victory on her second go at Clairwood in July 2009.

Off the track following that success due to sore shins, she reappeared at last years Carnival, where she opened her Tapeta account with an impressive performance in the 1000 Guineas trial at the opening Meydan meeting.

Sent off the Even money favourite for the 1000 Guineas itself next time out, she could finish only fourth behind Godolphin’s shock 50-1 winner Siyaadah (GB).

Prior to the 2010 Carnival, Mike De Kock showed the regard in which he held the filly when speaking of the ten-furlong UAE Derby as a possible target for Raihana, and the four-year-old proved she had the stamina for the trip with an authoritative victory in the UAE Oaks a fortnight after her defeat in the Guineas.

However, seemingly only second in the Derby pecking order on World Cup night, the bay was ridden by Kevin Shea with Christophe Soumillon preferring her more fancied stable companion. The Belgian proved his judgement was beyond question as Musir passed his rival in the final furlong to lead home a 1-2 for the “Al Adiyaat” team.

Following the Carnival, Sheikh Khalifa arranged for the pair to return to Australia into the care of trainer David Payne, who was to prepare them both for an assault on the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley the following October.

Unfortunately for the Sheikh, things did not go according to plan and Musir has not been since in action since his Derby victory, while Raihana failed to fire in a listed Warwick Farm Handicap before disappointing in a G2 at Rosehill.

Now back under the tutelage of De Kock, she is due to reappear under top-weight back on the turf in a 95+ mile handicap on 27^th January, with her trainer reporting that; “...she looks very well indeed and the World Cup looks a feasible target, so well she is going. She’s really matured and is a cracking looking filly now...”.

She may only be third in line for the World Cup behind her more flashy stablemates, but she proved she was no also-ran in last years Derby, and if she puts up an impressive performance on seasonal debut, Sheikh Khalifa may just have another live outsider to challenge for that prize he so desperately desires.

Gavin Dobson, Jan 2011.