Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

10/1 Hernando still the answer to $10million question...

The polytrack was riding on the fast side at Lingfield on Saturday, but that should not take away from a superb performance by Gitano Hernando in the 10f Winter Derby Trial, or Dubai World Cup trial in the case of Marco Botti's colt.

Switched off toward the back of the pack by Kieren Fallon, he made a race-ending move entering the straight and the race was over before it had really began.

Although he was expected to win, even at 90% full fitness, anybody seeing the race could not fail to be impressed with the way the horse quickened. The fact that he won very cosily with his ears pricked in a very very quick time only heightens my enthusiasm for his trip to Dubai at the end of March.

I mentioned in Saturdays blog that the figure of 119 for his win at Wolverhampton was the highest speed rating I had given a horse on a synthetic surface - scratch that!

The fast improving son of Hernando earned a figure of 122 on Saturday, by far the highest figure of this All-Weather season. If he was only 90% fit as Botti claimed, I for one cannot wait to see this horse racing at 100%, and at a best priced 10/1 with most firms, I have gone in again, as that represents real value.

It is worth noting that although the Tapeta surface at Meydan seems to provide no bias to turf or synthetic specialists, of the 44 races run on the surface this carnival, there had been 65 All-Weather race wins from 120 starts (54%) between the winning horses, as opposed to only 59 Turf wins from 227 starts (26%) and 22 wins from 95 starts on a Dirt surface (23%).

This highlights that horses with proven All-Weather form hold a slight edge over other horses, something which is obviously in Gitano Hernandos favour (4 from 4 on synthetics).

The same cannot be said for some of the other names at the head of the market. French raider and last years Prince of Wales stakes winner, Vision D'etat has no 'off-turf' experience, Breeders Cup Classic runner-up Gio Ponti, has 1 win and 1 place to his name from 3 pro-ride starts. This may be slightly insignificant however, as Pro-Ride is the synthetic surface that is most similar to running on turf, as shown by the number of European turf horses winning in the two previous Breeders Cups held on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Of the other horses towards the head of the market, Japanese superstar Espoir City has only Dirt experience to his name. Although that is top class Group 1 form, can he be relied upon to transfer that form to the synthetics?

Henry Cecils raider Twice Over has been the subject of strong praise for his recent workouts prior to heading out to Dubai. His Breeders Cup Classic placing behind Gio Ponti, along with his Champion Stakes win is certainly some of the strongest form on offer, however, he too has had only the 1 try over a 'turf-like' synthethic and was also the subject of rave reviews from gallops watchers throughout last season, subsequently disappointing at the highest level on a number of occasions.

Last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao, as he always seems to be, may be the forgotten horse in the race. The Brazilian bred 7 year old proved his liking for the Tapeta surface when successful in Round 1 of this years Maktoum Challenge and has proved himself a Group 1 horse in the past, most notably when pipping Presvis a head in the Singapore Airlines International in May of last year. Lightly raced since then, connections have had the World Cup in mind for some time and this adaptable horse is sure to be cherry ripe for the occasion.

Unless something creeps out of the woodwork from across the pond (rumours are rife that John Shireffs Breeders Cup Ladies Classic heroine Life is Sweet may be joining the party in Dubai, although again all of her wins have come on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride) then Gitano Hernando must have a huge chance of scooping the pot.

Recommendation:
Gitano Hernando to win Dubai World Cup @ 10/1

Fair Land Seeking Redemption.....

Not a fantastic day for the blog on Saturday as Imprimis Tagula was a shade disappointing in the Super 7 race at Lingfield, attempting to force the pace throughout he faded badly in the final furlong to finish 6th.


A perfect split up the rail opened up for Elna Bright and he managed to hold on from the fast finishing Atlantic Story, who is one to follow on the Polytrack this winter.

The Scoop6 was won by 5 lucky punters, of which I was not one! Although the majority of the horses ran satisfactorily, achieving 5 placed finishes from the 6 selections.

I know its very short notice but tonight’s 6.45 Handicap at Kempton is a chance for A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' to make up for a slightly below-par performance in his last race, where he was beaten a short head in a tactical nightmare.

Being drawn in Box 1 could be soon as some to be a negative, but the stats don't back this up and the outside two stalls at Kempton have a decent record. There is not a natural pacesetter in tonight’s race with the majority of the field hold-up performers, but this should enable young William Carson to manoeuvre the gelding into a decent stalking position behind the other likely pacesetters Bravo Echo and Simple Rhythm.

Two interesting horses for the forecast are Vintage, who looked to need the race last time out at Kempton after a 207 day lay-off and Bravo Echo, who ran against a distinct pace bias in his first appearance for new connections after a 3 month break. Both horses should come on for their respective runs, and may play a part in the finish.

Recommendations:
Back Seek The Fair Land to win @ (a slightly alarming drifting) 9/4 with Bet365
Back Vintage EW @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (small Stakes)
Seek The Fair Land / Vintage / Bravo Echo (Reverse Forecasts)

Good Luck all,

Hollywood_G

Big Freeze puts All-Weather Centre Stage....

Happy New Year all, I have been unable to update the blog over the festive period as I nipped across the pond for a 'vacation' on the arctic East Coast of America.

Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.

However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?

Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.

Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.

Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.

Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.

Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.

There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.

Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.

The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:

Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl

Good Luck all

Hollywood_G

Stick with 'Seek The Fair Land' to swell the Xmas coffers....

After a decent performance by Spinning to finish 3rd today (SP of 14/1), another Hollywood A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' goes at Kempton tomorrow in the 4.05 Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs.


Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.


A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.


Hollywood_G

The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 3]

Weight (w)  = Mass (m)  x Acceleration (g - gravity)

Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!

The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.

Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)

How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.

For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.

As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.

It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!

However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....

The difficult first post...

I have been toying with the idea of a blog for a while now, probably about two years late I suppose but hey...

The purpose of my blog is to share my various musings regarding All Weather Horse Racing in the UK and possibly during the 'big' meetings where the UK is represented (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup etc) I will venture- unfortunately, hypothetically-to foreign climes and explore the goings on outside of these shores.

So: "Why All weather racing? surely some of the lowest standard of horse racing in the UK right?"
Well, I suppose in prize money terms then yes, but its not all about the money is it? ....is it?....

A few years ago I started to compile Speed Figures for all Flat races run in the UK. The aim of which was to use as another piece of useful information to aid the solution of the huge handicapping puzzle.
The figures are created using a composite of methods adopted by the 'experts', the UKs very own Nick Mordin (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Nick%20Mordin)
and Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Andrew%20Beyer).

I will delve into the mechanics of the production of these Figures in a later blog, for now it is sufficient for me to tell you that these figures seem to be more reliable, more successful and more profitable for races run on the All-Weather Tracks in the UK - Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Wolverhampton & Southwell. (Great Leighs was not around long enough to get a proper grasp of the figures).

Obviously, following more success for the figures at these courses I began to take more of an interest in the All-Weather side of racing, and that is where the idea of this blog came from, an opportunity to share my knowledge, thoughts and quite possibly the many rants at certain jockeys, along with the figures I produce and the opportunity to share some winning wagers.

I aim to update the blog on a weekly basis - other commitments permitting - with a write-up of what I, along with my speed figures, believe to be the single All-Weather 'performance of the week', along with any other related information which I feel may be beneficial.

I've now rambled on for far too long, so I will sign off and concentrate on my first 'performance of the week' blog, thanks for reading and may all of your bets be winning ones...

Hollywood_G