Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

Gitano robbery on route to World Cup Glory...

Unfortunately there haven been no blog updates for a while for a number of reasons - the dayjob and wedding planning being the two main culprits, along with a part-time diploma.

Something had to give - and m'lady ensured it was not the Wedding that was relegated to the backburner!

In any case, the all-weather racing has been pretty much dour stuff lately, with a number of Hollywood A-Listers turned over in recent weeks. We have had some marginal successes however, none more so than Godolphin's Global City continuing his upward curve out in Dubai, where there have been some very useful performances from British trained horses.
Most notably, from a speed figure perspective - Jeremy Noseda's Leahurst, who is well worth keeping an eye on out there in the last few Carnival meetings.

Tomorrows racing at Lingfield is much better fare, with my big fancy for the $10million Dubai World Cup having his prep-race in the 10f Winter Derby trial.

Gitano Hernando is very good value at 14/1 for the March 27th 10f feature, given his fantastic record on all-weather surfaces, none more so than when breaking the Wolverhampton course record last September, earning a huge figure of 119 - the highest I have ever given any horse on a synthetic surface.

Shipping out to America did not hold any fears a few weeks later as he produced a massive 18/1 shock when beating a number of fancied runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Owners Team Valor then had the option of running over the same course and distance in the Breeders Cup classic in November, but decided against it as they felt it would come too soon for the young colt.

The Dubai showpiece is no mean afterthought, especially seeing that regular jockey Kieren Fallon has given up his ride on Luca Cumanis Presvis, who was being aimed at the World Cup also.
That is a tip in itself, as Kieren is as good a judge of a racehorse as anybody and has flown back to England from Dubai for this weekends racing. I would be surprised if the main reason for this wasn't the ride on Marco Bottis fast improving son of Hernando, a horse Kieren clearly has a lot of time for.

He won't be 100% wound up for tomorrows race, as Botti has always stated the main aim is the World Cup itself. However, I will still be very surprised if he does not run out quite an easy winner, and if that does happen, the 14/1 currently on offer will be long gone.

The race prior to the Winter Derby trial is another Class 1 affair, this time over the one turn 6 furlong course.
Flying filly, and course specalist Jaconet will surely take all of the beating over her favoured course and distance. She is definitely one of the fastest horses out of the gate in the UK, and although she won't be allowed an uncontested lead with Bel Cantor drawn in Box 1 I still think she'll blast away and put them all to the sword from a difficult draw in 7. She is a proven Class 1 performer, and Arganil along with a number of others have questions to answer after some below par performances recently.

An interesting runner in the race is Jim Bests Mullionmileanhour, who has not been seen in public since a 3rd place finish in the 2008 Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. A horse Best has always had high hopes for he could be the main danger to the selection, although it will be some performance after a 620 day lay-off.

Recommendations:
Back Jaconet @ 2/1 +
Back Jaconet / Gitano Hernando double if Jaconet is 2/1+
Back Gitano Hernando to win the Dubai World Cup prior to tomorrows race (14/1 @ VCBet and Betfred)

Good Luck all
Hollywood_G

Meydan Calling....

This Thursday (28th) sees the start of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, and the opening of Meydan, the new $billion racecourse in Dubai.

Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.

Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/

Tapeta is currently in use at two racetracks in the US, Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Golden Gate Fields in California.

Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.

In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.

Golden Gate fields is a little different, as there is no chute for the races run over a mile, the oval is around 8 furlongs in circumference, and the run-in is a little shorter than at Meydan, however, it gives us some information at which to start.

After some tedious calculations that I wont go into, using some information provided by the guys at http://www.speedfigures.com/ I have come up with the following standard times for the Tapeta surface at Meydan, that can be used as a guide until there have been a significant amount of races to enable more accurate calculations to be performed.

Tapeta Surface:

Distance (fur)  Std Time (Secs)

5                       56.0

5.5                    62.5
6                       69.6
7                       82.0
8                       95.0
9                     108.0
9.5                  114.5
10                   121.2
11                   135.0
12                   148.0

It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.

Hollywood_G

Big Freeze puts All-Weather Centre Stage....

Happy New Year all, I have been unable to update the blog over the festive period as I nipped across the pond for a 'vacation' on the arctic East Coast of America.

Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.

However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?

Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.

Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.

Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.

Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.

Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.

There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.

Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.

The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:

Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl

Good Luck all

Hollywood_G

Stick with 'Seek The Fair Land' to swell the Xmas coffers....

After a decent performance by Spinning to finish 3rd today (SP of 14/1), another Hollywood A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' goes at Kempton tomorrow in the 4.05 Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs.


Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.


A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.


Hollywood_G

Spinning to turn things around....

Yesterday wasnt a great day for the blog with both Sky Crusader and Mister New York failing to make the frame. I'm not a sore loser, and both horses were not good enough on the day, but I was not impressed with the rides given to both horses by jockeys Steve Drowne & George Baker respectively.

In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.

In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.

Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.

Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.

Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.

Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.

Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.

Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ

The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 2]

[cog 2] Class Pars and Going allowances.

Pars.

As discussed in the previous blog, we now know how to calculate a RAW speed figure dependent on the time taken for the winner to win a given race.

However, this figure is not the one we award the horse. Before we assign a figure for the race we need to calculate how big a part the racing surface played in the time of the race.

The way we do this is to ‘estimate’ how fast each race should have been run. This is similar in a way to assigning a ‘Par’ to a Golf course, the par being the amount of shots it should take to complete the 9 or 18 holes.

It is fairly easy to assume that Group Class horses, i.e. the best horses in the World, will run a lot faster than horses competing for a Class 7 event at Wolverhampton on a Friday night.

But how much faster?

In his excellent book, Mordin On Time (available via Aesculus Press) Nick Mordin details how over the years he has calculated that a race for older (3year old +) Listed Class animals will be run approximately 3.6 seconds slower than the standard time for every mile of the race.

For example: the previous blog states that the standard time for 1 mile (1760yds) at Kempton is 95 seconds.

A listed class race therefore is estimated to be take 98.6 seconds to complete.
(95 seconds + 3.6 seconds for every mile) = 98.6 seconds.

A similar calculation is performed for a race over 2 miles. The standard time for 2 miles at Kempton is 201.2 seconds. Therefore the estimate for a listed class race is (201.2 + (3.6 x 2 miles)) 208.4 seconds.

Using the formula detailed previously to work out a RAW speed figure awards the above two performances a rating of 112 and 114 respectively.

Nick also states that races confined to 2 year olds, 3 year olds or Filly/Mare only races will be run slower than the 3.6 seconds per mile.

The following table details the estimated seconds per mile slower each race should be run for all class of races in the UK.

Note: The prediction for a class 1 race over 6 furlongs is worked out as follows:

6 furlongs = 0.75 of a mile. Therefore 3.6*0.75 = 2.7.
A Class 1 race over 6 furlongs is estimated at 2.7 seconds above standard.

A RAW speed calculation much like the previous section can be performed using the above table to indicate a figure for any race.

Performing the calculation using the standard time for every racecourse in the UK, gives a PAR time figure for every distance at any course for any type of race.

These ensuing figures averaged out, result in the following PAR figures.

Following a few years of using the figures I estimate that Group Class races (above Class 1 listed) are run a few points quicker for each Group Class, i.e. Group 3s are generally quicker than Class 1, Group 2s quicker than Group 3 etc.

Therefore, an updated PAR comparison table looks like the one below:

Going Allowances.

We can now estimate using the table above what Speed Figure each race run in the UK should achieve based on the horses that are running in it.

For example, yesterday (Saturday 28th Nov 2009) the 2.15 “Jacksbridge Handicap” at Lingfield Park was a Class 2, 10f race for older horses (3 YO+).

According to the table above, the Par figure for a race of this nature is 101. For the winner to achieve a figure of 101, the race should be won in 127.3 seconds.

However, the winner ‘Bound By Honour’ won the race in a time of 125.27 seconds, earning a RAW speed figure of 118, some 17 points above the Par time.

This +17 points may indicate that Bound By Honour is a Group 3 horse in a Class 2 race, or it may be due to the racing surface speeding up the horse enabling a quicker time to be attained.

The way in which this argument is settled is to compare the estimated PAR times and the achieved RAW times for the rest of the days results at the same course, as follows.

The above table shows that the surface at Lingfield yesterday was very fast and speeding up horses by an average of 36 points each race.
The going allowance is therefore said to be +36.

The original RAW figure for Bound By Honours performance was 118, however this is now adjusted by subtracting the Going Allowance of 36, resulting in final speed figure of 82, some 19 points below the Par of 101 - hardly the group 3-class performance it looked originally. In actual fact the PAR table shows this performance to be more akin to an average class 5 event.

Obviously other important factors such as pace etc may have played a part in the fairly poor time, (Pace will be explored in another blog) but from my calculations there was no real pace bias yesterday at Lingfield, all of the races were won by horses up with the pace throughout. I would be wary of the future worth of the form of this race.

It can be seen from the comparison table that the best performance of the day was in Race No.2 - a Class 5 event for 2 year olds over 6 furlongs.
This race was awarded a speed figure of 83, some 13 points above the PAR of 70. The winner ‘Tenacestream’ performed well on his debut to earn a figure that would put him around Class 3 level in his age group.

He could be worth watching when turned out again, as he should improve for his first run.

This concludes the basic mechanics behind the calculation of speed figures.

The calculations shown can be performed for every race worldwide, as long as you have an accurate set of standard times and Par Times from which to work with.

There are other aspects that could influence the figures; such as the pace of a race or changes in weather conditions part way through a meeting. These variables may lead to minor adjustments, and will be explored in later blogs.