Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

10/1 Hernando still the answer to $10million question...

The polytrack was riding on the fast side at Lingfield on Saturday, but that should not take away from a superb performance by Gitano Hernando in the 10f Winter Derby Trial, or Dubai World Cup trial in the case of Marco Botti's colt.

Switched off toward the back of the pack by Kieren Fallon, he made a race-ending move entering the straight and the race was over before it had really began.

Although he was expected to win, even at 90% full fitness, anybody seeing the race could not fail to be impressed with the way the horse quickened. The fact that he won very cosily with his ears pricked in a very very quick time only heightens my enthusiasm for his trip to Dubai at the end of March.

I mentioned in Saturdays blog that the figure of 119 for his win at Wolverhampton was the highest speed rating I had given a horse on a synthetic surface - scratch that!

The fast improving son of Hernando earned a figure of 122 on Saturday, by far the highest figure of this All-Weather season. If he was only 90% fit as Botti claimed, I for one cannot wait to see this horse racing at 100%, and at a best priced 10/1 with most firms, I have gone in again, as that represents real value.

It is worth noting that although the Tapeta surface at Meydan seems to provide no bias to turf or synthetic specialists, of the 44 races run on the surface this carnival, there had been 65 All-Weather race wins from 120 starts (54%) between the winning horses, as opposed to only 59 Turf wins from 227 starts (26%) and 22 wins from 95 starts on a Dirt surface (23%).

This highlights that horses with proven All-Weather form hold a slight edge over other horses, something which is obviously in Gitano Hernandos favour (4 from 4 on synthetics).

The same cannot be said for some of the other names at the head of the market. French raider and last years Prince of Wales stakes winner, Vision D'etat has no 'off-turf' experience, Breeders Cup Classic runner-up Gio Ponti, has 1 win and 1 place to his name from 3 pro-ride starts. This may be slightly insignificant however, as Pro-Ride is the synthetic surface that is most similar to running on turf, as shown by the number of European turf horses winning in the two previous Breeders Cups held on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Of the other horses towards the head of the market, Japanese superstar Espoir City has only Dirt experience to his name. Although that is top class Group 1 form, can he be relied upon to transfer that form to the synthetics?

Henry Cecils raider Twice Over has been the subject of strong praise for his recent workouts prior to heading out to Dubai. His Breeders Cup Classic placing behind Gio Ponti, along with his Champion Stakes win is certainly some of the strongest form on offer, however, he too has had only the 1 try over a 'turf-like' synthethic and was also the subject of rave reviews from gallops watchers throughout last season, subsequently disappointing at the highest level on a number of occasions.

Last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao, as he always seems to be, may be the forgotten horse in the race. The Brazilian bred 7 year old proved his liking for the Tapeta surface when successful in Round 1 of this years Maktoum Challenge and has proved himself a Group 1 horse in the past, most notably when pipping Presvis a head in the Singapore Airlines International in May of last year. Lightly raced since then, connections have had the World Cup in mind for some time and this adaptable horse is sure to be cherry ripe for the occasion.

Unless something creeps out of the woodwork from across the pond (rumours are rife that John Shireffs Breeders Cup Ladies Classic heroine Life is Sweet may be joining the party in Dubai, although again all of her wins have come on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride) then Gitano Hernando must have a huge chance of scooping the pot.

Recommendation:
Gitano Hernando to win Dubai World Cup @ 10/1

The Dust Settles in the Desert...

The first meeting, and the first 10% of the Dubai Carnival is over.

The opening meeting of the $2billion dollar Meydan course was no let-down and produced some excellent equine performances.

All reports of the new Tapeta surface were positive, and the track seemed to ride fairly evenly throughout the night, with winners coming from various pace angles and box positions 13, 1, 5, 11, 7, 11, 5.
If anything, the course seemed to suit those stalking or coming from off the pace, although a definite conclusion cannot be made after only one meeting.

Performances worthy of a second look include the Jeremy Noseda trained Leahurst's (11/8) win in the last race on the card, a 90-105 handicap over 7f. Stalking the pace, he was quickly pushed to the front under Ryan Moore and put the race to bed entering the straight to win going away.

However, perhaps the most impressive win of the night came from the Luca Cumani trained Drunken Sailor (5/1) who was value for more than his 2 1/4 length win over the ex-Cumani inmate Monte Alto. Given a great stalking ride from Kieren Fallon, the big gelding stormed to the front at the top of the straight and is definitely one to keep on the right side of during the carnival. He seemed to enjoy the Tapeta, and as he goes well on the Turf he has plenty of options.

Mike De Kock started the 2010 Carnival as though he meant business with two quick-fire winners courtesy of Raihana (11/4) and Lizards Desire (9/4), both ridden by uber-cool Frenchman Christophe Soumillon and both equally impressive. Lizards Desire got a perfect split on the rail, but he was always holding the challengers at the finish, lead by stablemate King Of Rome.

The first leg of the Maktoum Challenge (often seen as a trial for the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night, but has also been used as a stepping stone to the World Cup itself) went to last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao (12/1). Sitting just off the pace, the Pascal Bary trained Brazilian wore down the pace setting favourite-Godolphins Midshipman-in the final furlong, and held off the fast finishing Forgotten Voice (Noseda/Moore) for a 1/2 length victory. He will now be aimed at the World Cup in a bid to go one better than last year. Kieren Fallon partnered the multiple winning Saudi Arabian based Consul General. Unfancied in the market, the 25/1 shot looked a likely winner entering the straight, however a 3 month lay-off seemed to take its toll in the closing stages and he finished a tired 3rd, he will strip fitter for this run next time out and is worth a second look.

Elsewhere on the card, Godolphin registered a sole opening night win despite having short priced favourites in 4 of the 7 races. Whispering Gallery (6/4) dictated from the gate to record a comfortable victory in the 10f handicap, with the ultra reliable Halicarnussus holding on for 2nd.

Ted Durcan cajoled John Bests Sir Gerry (25/1) along at the back of the field in the only sprint on the card (6f). As the field entered the straight he quickly gathered momentum and flew down the outside in the closing stages to get up by 1/2 length. He could have been 'well-in' on his handicap debut.

All-in-all a fantastic opening night at a fantastic new venue and although the Dubai economy may well be feeling the pinch, the Carnival seems as though it will be as extravagant and as glamorous as ever this year. The next 90% should be well worth keeping an eye on.

Hollywood_G

Note:
Shadows Lengthen landed the six-timer at Southwell on Tuesday in grand style. A starting price of 11/4 was terrific value and he could go in again if his adept trainer can find him another opportunity.
A wide draw may have cost Imprimis Tagula in the 6 furlong sprint and he could do no more than fill the runner-up berth behind his better drawn rival Tourist. He could be worth chancing if he turns out again in the 'Super 7' qualifier at Lingfield on Saturday if hes not hindered by another wide box position.

Meydan Calling....

This Thursday (28th) sees the start of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, and the opening of Meydan, the new $billion racecourse in Dubai.

Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.

Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/

Tapeta is currently in use at two racetracks in the US, Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Golden Gate Fields in California.

Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.

In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.

Golden Gate fields is a little different, as there is no chute for the races run over a mile, the oval is around 8 furlongs in circumference, and the run-in is a little shorter than at Meydan, however, it gives us some information at which to start.

After some tedious calculations that I wont go into, using some information provided by the guys at http://www.speedfigures.com/ I have come up with the following standard times for the Tapeta surface at Meydan, that can be used as a guide until there have been a significant amount of races to enable more accurate calculations to be performed.

Tapeta Surface:

Distance (fur)  Std Time (Secs)

5                       56.0

5.5                    62.5
6                       69.6
7                       82.0
8                       95.0
9                     108.0
9.5                  114.5
10                   121.2
11                   135.0
12                   148.0

It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.

Hollywood_G