No joy yesterday as Seek The Fair Land was totally undone by the lack of pace in the race at Kempton. Sent off at 8/11 he was many punters idea of a good thing but it wasnt to be and he finished runner-up behind L'Hirondelle. The race earned a speed figure of only 74, which is 12 points below the Class Par, and highlights the lack of pace present in the race.
Incidentally there has been a distinct bias towards hold up performers at Kempton over the last few days, the two meetings earning pace figures of only 28 & 26 respectively. This indicates a significant advantage to hold up horses, and may be worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of meetings there - although it may be down in part to the wintery weather we have been enduring recently.
A late addition to the Hollywood A-List is 'Kingsgate Castle', who finished 2nd in yesterdays 4.35 at Kempton. Denied a run up the straight behind a wall of horses, Gay Kelleways colt finished strongly once seeing daylight and would have gone very close given a clear run. He earned an impressive speed figure when winning over C&D on December 16th and should be worth keeping an eye on in Class 5/6 contests.
No All-Weather racing, or any racing at all, until Boxing Day when Kauto Star is the main attraction in the King George VI Chase, bidding to win the race for the fourth year running.
However I will be busy attempting to unearth a more suitable betting proposition on Wolverhamptons polytrack, the same afternoon.
Merry Christmas to all.
Best Wishes
Hollywood_G
Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Sunday, 20 December 2009
Stick with 'Seek The Fair Land' to swell the Xmas coffers....
After a decent performance by Spinning to finish 3rd today (SP of 14/1), another Hollywood A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' goes at Kempton tomorrow in the 4.05 Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs.
Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.
A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.
Hollywood_G
Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.
A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.
Hollywood_G
Spinning to turn things around....
Yesterday wasnt a great day for the blog with both Sky Crusader and Mister New York failing to make the frame. I'm not a sore loser, and both horses were not good enough on the day, but I was not impressed with the rides given to both horses by jockeys Steve Drowne & George Baker respectively.
In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.
In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.
Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.
Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.
Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.
Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.
Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.
Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ
In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.
In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.
Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.
Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.
Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.
Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.
Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.
Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ
Saturday, 19 December 2009
Quebec Stakes preview...
After all the National Hunt abandonments, all-weather racing takes centre stage on Terrestrial TV this afternoon with racing from Lingfield Park.
The highlight of which is the Quebec Stakes over 10f due off at 2.40.
The favourite for the race is Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger, a winner over Course and Distance exactly 4 weeks ago. He earned a speed figure of 103 for that race, beating the well regarded Presvis into second on his only polytrack start. Although one thing of note is Presvis was not cherry ripe on that occasion, using the race merely as a stepping stone to the Hong Kong Cup, in which he finished 3rd.
Tranquil Tiger also appears to be best when fresh, and the four week break may just not be enough.
The Irish raider Settigano is interesting after his win on the Dundalk polytrack last month, however he has never won over a distance this far, and this son of Sadlers Wells may just be found out in the final furlong if the pace is a strong one.
Making that pace will surely be the Richard Hannon trained Plum Pudding, who may also be taken on by Suits Me. With those two likely to cut each others throats up front, the race could be set up for a deep closer.
Wille Muir's Saphiras Fire fits into this category, she has been running admirably in defeat recently, earning a big speed figure of 107 when 3rd to Les Fazzani at Kempton on her latest start over 12 furlong.
However, the horse I like in the race is French raider Sky Crusader. Available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes this horse began life in the UK with Roger Ingram before shipping to Europe to become something of an All-Weather specialist in Germany under Christian Von Der Recke and more recently in France under the guidance of Marcus Nigge. He ran well on his most recent visit to the UK finishing 4th behind Kirklees in a Group 3 at Kempton in September, earning a speed figure of 101. He has since recorded a fairly easy listed victory at Deauville and is clearly in good heart. I anticipate him sitting off the pace towards the rear of the field while the front runners go at it, and taking aim in the straight - incidentally 39% of races at Lingfield since 1st November have been won by runners coming from well off the pace, this statistic bodes well for Sky Crusader, and he is the reccommendation @ 9/1 Each-Way (2 places).
Elsewhere on the card, Mister New York is the clear speed figure pick in the last race. This race has a Class Par of 86, with Mister New York bettering that figure in 2 of his last 3 starts. The pace angle of this race is less clear cut however, with the majority of the field employing hold-up tactics and only Lyras Daemon a confirmed pace setter. With so many horses held up, there could be traffic problems entering the straight and Mister New York could be trapped on the rail from Box.2, however if a split appears he should have the speed to get through it. He is an each way proposition at a general 4/1.
Hollywood_G
The highlight of which is the Quebec Stakes over 10f due off at 2.40.
The favourite for the race is Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger, a winner over Course and Distance exactly 4 weeks ago. He earned a speed figure of 103 for that race, beating the well regarded Presvis into second on his only polytrack start. Although one thing of note is Presvis was not cherry ripe on that occasion, using the race merely as a stepping stone to the Hong Kong Cup, in which he finished 3rd.
Tranquil Tiger also appears to be best when fresh, and the four week break may just not be enough.
The Irish raider Settigano is interesting after his win on the Dundalk polytrack last month, however he has never won over a distance this far, and this son of Sadlers Wells may just be found out in the final furlong if the pace is a strong one.
Making that pace will surely be the Richard Hannon trained Plum Pudding, who may also be taken on by Suits Me. With those two likely to cut each others throats up front, the race could be set up for a deep closer.
Wille Muir's Saphiras Fire fits into this category, she has been running admirably in defeat recently, earning a big speed figure of 107 when 3rd to Les Fazzani at Kempton on her latest start over 12 furlong.
However, the horse I like in the race is French raider Sky Crusader. Available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes this horse began life in the UK with Roger Ingram before shipping to Europe to become something of an All-Weather specialist in Germany under Christian Von Der Recke and more recently in France under the guidance of Marcus Nigge. He ran well on his most recent visit to the UK finishing 4th behind Kirklees in a Group 3 at Kempton in September, earning a speed figure of 101. He has since recorded a fairly easy listed victory at Deauville and is clearly in good heart. I anticipate him sitting off the pace towards the rear of the field while the front runners go at it, and taking aim in the straight - incidentally 39% of races at Lingfield since 1st November have been won by runners coming from well off the pace, this statistic bodes well for Sky Crusader, and he is the reccommendation @ 9/1 Each-Way (2 places).
Elsewhere on the card, Mister New York is the clear speed figure pick in the last race. This race has a Class Par of 86, with Mister New York bettering that figure in 2 of his last 3 starts. The pace angle of this race is less clear cut however, with the majority of the field employing hold-up tactics and only Lyras Daemon a confirmed pace setter. With so many horses held up, there could be traffic problems entering the straight and Mister New York could be trapped on the rail from Box.2, however if a split appears he should have the speed to get through it. He is an each way proposition at a general 4/1.
Hollywood_G
Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Aeroplane to take flight @ Kempton...
Inheritor did the blog proud on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton.
The race panned out pretty much exactly as expected, although the horse I did think would make the running Laafet, missed the kick completely.
However Tom Eaves managed to stalk the pace and get a decent rail position to hit the front just after the home bend and hold on from the fast finishing CanCanStar.
This week is quite an important week for all-weather racing in the UK, with two listed contests taking place. Saturday see's Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger bidding to follow up his recent win in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield, and tonight sees Irish Raider 'Dohasa' bidding to retain Kemptons Sunbury Stakes for Ireland, after Duff's win in the race last year.
Tonights race has an intriguing look to it, with a few horses in with a shout.
The Contenders:
Obviously 'Dohasa' is the form pick after finishing runner-up in three Group races in Ireland. He is proven on the polytrack as proved by his win at Dundalk, where he earned a big speed figure, winning fairly readily.
He is an admirably consistent horse, and it will be no surprise to see him performing with credit out in Dubai in the coming months, as he has done the last two years.
'Aeroplane' was once touted by trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam as a potential superstar. He has lost his way rather over the years but showed he still had potential by hacking up in two claiming races on the Polytrack. These were obviously intended as confidence boosters but he acheived decent speed figures without fully asserting himself. These wins along with a change in yard to David Evans could work the oracle. He is drawn wide but is generally held-up off the pace anyway, so this shouldnt be too much of an inconvenience.
'Black Dahlia' slammed her rivals by 6 lengths over C&D last time out. Improving to a speed figure around Class 2 level, and again was probably value for a little higher figure. I can't see her being good enough to win, but she is clearly thriving at the minute and could run into a place.
As the lone speed in the race 'Dunelight' is very interesting.
He is arguably the classiest of this bunch, and has been campaigned in Group Races throughout his career, finishing only 2 3/4 lengths behind Paco Boy in the 2008 running of the Lennox at Goodwood. His only racecourse appearance since then was last month on this course, where he bounced out in front and didnt quite get home over the mile. He should strip fitter for that and now back to 7 furlongs should not be allowed too much rope in front, as although Kempton does not generally favour speed horses, he could just hold on in front. The draw has not been kind to him, but he should be able to cross over and gain the lead from Box.11.
Kieren Fallon rides 'Ceremonial Jade' for the bang-in-form Marco Botti yard. He couldnt live with the blistering Jaconet last time out, but neither could the rest of the field. That was his first run for 6 months and he did run well in this race last year. His speed figures are up there with the best tonight.
All in all its a tricky race. Given the likely pace scenario with Dunelight forcing a strong pace, and plenty of these stalking, it could be set up for a horse coming from off the pace. Ceremonial Jade will be held up, but the horse I like at a very fair price is 'AEROPLANE'. His two recent runs look to have done him the world of good and if his jockey doesnt have him too far back and give him too much to do, he could put up a decent fight to the finish. I would actually prefer to see Jamie Spencer back up top tonight, as Aeroplane is the sort of hold up performer he excels with.
Currently a 14/1 shot with various firms, he is the bet tonight, although I may also play some combination forecasts with the above mentioned horses.
Hollywood_G
The race panned out pretty much exactly as expected, although the horse I did think would make the running Laafet, missed the kick completely.
However Tom Eaves managed to stalk the pace and get a decent rail position to hit the front just after the home bend and hold on from the fast finishing CanCanStar.
This week is quite an important week for all-weather racing in the UK, with two listed contests taking place. Saturday see's Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger bidding to follow up his recent win in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield, and tonight sees Irish Raider 'Dohasa' bidding to retain Kemptons Sunbury Stakes for Ireland, after Duff's win in the race last year.
Tonights race has an intriguing look to it, with a few horses in with a shout.
The Contenders:
Obviously 'Dohasa' is the form pick after finishing runner-up in three Group races in Ireland. He is proven on the polytrack as proved by his win at Dundalk, where he earned a big speed figure, winning fairly readily.
He is an admirably consistent horse, and it will be no surprise to see him performing with credit out in Dubai in the coming months, as he has done the last two years.
'Aeroplane' was once touted by trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam as a potential superstar. He has lost his way rather over the years but showed he still had potential by hacking up in two claiming races on the Polytrack. These were obviously intended as confidence boosters but he acheived decent speed figures without fully asserting himself. These wins along with a change in yard to David Evans could work the oracle. He is drawn wide but is generally held-up off the pace anyway, so this shouldnt be too much of an inconvenience.
'Black Dahlia' slammed her rivals by 6 lengths over C&D last time out. Improving to a speed figure around Class 2 level, and again was probably value for a little higher figure. I can't see her being good enough to win, but she is clearly thriving at the minute and could run into a place.
As the lone speed in the race 'Dunelight' is very interesting.
He is arguably the classiest of this bunch, and has been campaigned in Group Races throughout his career, finishing only 2 3/4 lengths behind Paco Boy in the 2008 running of the Lennox at Goodwood. His only racecourse appearance since then was last month on this course, where he bounced out in front and didnt quite get home over the mile. He should strip fitter for that and now back to 7 furlongs should not be allowed too much rope in front, as although Kempton does not generally favour speed horses, he could just hold on in front. The draw has not been kind to him, but he should be able to cross over and gain the lead from Box.11.
Kieren Fallon rides 'Ceremonial Jade' for the bang-in-form Marco Botti yard. He couldnt live with the blistering Jaconet last time out, but neither could the rest of the field. That was his first run for 6 months and he did run well in this race last year. His speed figures are up there with the best tonight.
All in all its a tricky race. Given the likely pace scenario with Dunelight forcing a strong pace, and plenty of these stalking, it could be set up for a horse coming from off the pace. Ceremonial Jade will be held up, but the horse I like at a very fair price is 'AEROPLANE'. His two recent runs look to have done him the world of good and if his jockey doesnt have him too far back and give him too much to do, he could put up a decent fight to the finish. I would actually prefer to see Jamie Spencer back up top tonight, as Aeroplane is the sort of hold up performer he excels with.
Currently a 14/1 shot with various firms, he is the bet tonight, although I may also play some combination forecasts with the above mentioned horses.
Hollywood_G
Saturday, 12 December 2009
Shadows Lengthening winning run....
Shadows Lengthen recorded his five-timer yesterday -and his third Southwell win in 6 days - but he had to dig deeper than previous runs to hold off the persistent Stormy Summer by a neck.
Somewhat amazingly, and maybe as a precautionary measure, he was entered again today in Southwells 1.10, but has now been withdrawn.
Surely, Mick Easterby will now give him a Christmas break before stepping him up in Class in the New Year?
My one fancy today is 'Inheritor' in Wolverhamptons 8.50. Brian Smarts gelding ran well here over 7 furlongs to earn a speed figure of 100, just going down by 3/4 of a length to Caprio.
However, the track was favouring the hold-up horses that day, earning a Pace figure of only 36, and Inheritor was close-up to the pace throughout.
Todays race is a drop in class and a step-up in trip to 8 1/2 furlongs, if Laafet goes off in front as expected, Tom Eaves should be able to drop Inheritor in from Box4 before striking late.
At 3/1 at numerous bookies he is worth a bet to hold of the in-form Just Bond and Justcallmehandsome.
Hollywood_G
Somewhat amazingly, and maybe as a precautionary measure, he was entered again today in Southwells 1.10, but has now been withdrawn.
Surely, Mick Easterby will now give him a Christmas break before stepping him up in Class in the New Year?
My one fancy today is 'Inheritor' in Wolverhamptons 8.50. Brian Smarts gelding ran well here over 7 furlongs to earn a speed figure of 100, just going down by 3/4 of a length to Caprio.
However, the track was favouring the hold-up horses that day, earning a Pace figure of only 36, and Inheritor was close-up to the pace throughout.
Todays race is a drop in class and a step-up in trip to 8 1/2 furlongs, if Laafet goes off in front as expected, Tom Eaves should be able to drop Inheritor in from Box4 before striking late.
At 3/1 at numerous bookies he is worth a bet to hold of the in-form Just Bond and Justcallmehandsome.
Hollywood_G
Thursday, 10 December 2009
Shadows Lenghten ready for a five-timer....
Hollywood A-Lister 'Shadows Lengthen' bids for his third Southwell win in a week in the last race tomorrow.
He recorded his best speed figure of 99 when winning on Tuesday, and the Mick Easterby 3-year-old will surely be too good in this Class 6 apprentice handicap, even allowing for a 12lb penalty.
He wasnt stopping at the end of his recent races, and the step up in distance to 12 furlongs should not hold any fears for this front running Dansili bay.
He will surely go off at prohibitive odds - Racing Post forecast is 1/2 - and I will be watching rather than playing, prefering to wait for the chance of better value when he inevitably steps up in class in the New Year.
Hollywood_G
He recorded his best speed figure of 99 when winning on Tuesday, and the Mick Easterby 3-year-old will surely be too good in this Class 6 apprentice handicap, even allowing for a 12lb penalty.
He wasnt stopping at the end of his recent races, and the step up in distance to 12 furlongs should not hold any fears for this front running Dansili bay.
He will surely go off at prohibitive odds - Racing Post forecast is 1/2 - and I will be watching rather than playing, prefering to wait for the chance of better value when he inevitably steps up in class in the New Year.
Hollywood_G
Wednesday, 9 December 2009
Southwell Snaps...
Just a quick post to add a few pictures taken on Saturday at Southwell, and to add that Shadows Lengthen followed up Saturdays victory with a facile success yesterday - as a 30/100 shot should.
Although I did manage a little 8/11 about 20 minutes before the off, which it turns out was a very fair price.
Saturdays Eyecatchers:
Although I did manage a little 8/11 about 20 minutes before the off, which it turns out was a very fair price.
Saturdays Eyecatchers:
Brigadoon & Fallon.
Tried over the straight 5f but looked to need at least 6f, worth another try.
Lovely looking colt, ran green throughout but when the penny finally dropped ran on to win well and record a decent debut speed rating of 77.
Dynamic Idol.
Imposing Dynaformer Colt, pick of the paddock.
Ran on well to finish 4th behind Doctor Zhivago on debut and worth a place in the notebook.
Lucky Punt.
Quickly turning into a course specialist and recorded an easy success.
He earned that drink...
Shadows Lengthen.
Made all to bag his hat-trick in a canter.
Followed up under 6lb penalty in a similar fashion yesterday.
Tuesday, 8 December 2009
Sun, sand & 100/1 shocks!
Luckily the forecast rain in Nottinghamshire did not rear its ugly head on Saturday and I managed to attend the pre-midday starting Southwell meeting.
Jackie Kiely: my selection in the first race was all the rage in the market, however he was not alone as there had been quite a lot of (obviously) smart money in the morning for Merrion Tiger who hacked up by an eased down 7 lengths. Greg Fairley even afforded himself a cheeky glance over the shoulder at the 1/2 furlong pole, but there was no danger from the one paced Jackie Kiely and Altos Reales who were battling for minor honours only.
A closer finish in the ensuing 2-year-old sprint over the straight 5 as Point to Prove improved on his Wolverhampton run to pip my selection Lucky Mellor in the final 50 yards. However, on closer inspection, the form is to be treated with caution as the time was the slowest of the day and over a second slower than the Class 6 juvenile sprint that followed.
R Woodys's speed figures in his previous two races were 22 and 1. Hardly inspiring reading and even the most optimistic punter could not have seen any promise in his 9 length defeat at Wolverhampton some 79 days earlier.
However, all was not as it seemed and only the trained eye would have noticed R Woody was somewhat lighter in the nether regions than his last racecourse appearance. Still described as a colt in the official racecard the gelding operation obviously worked the oracle as he blasted home @ 100/1 to silence a stunned crowd, most of whom held a ticket bearing the name of the well backed favourite Brigadoon, who disappointed under one K. Fallon, to me, he looked all the world like he needed at least one extra furlong.
I was looking forward to the next race and two debutants with hot pedigrees.
Pick of the paddock was the imposing ‘Dynamic Idol’ a huge Dynaformer colt, and apparently, according to course commentator Graham Goode – the apple of his trainers eye.
Dynamic Idol was well-backed into favouritism ahead of the other well-bred colt - Doctor Zhivago, and it was the Mark Johnston trained grey that came out on top in the final furlong to win impressively, despite running green throughout.
Dynamic Idol is worth another chance however, as he was bustled along early, and had to be jostled around the home bend, he finished a staying on 4th and looks as though he’d learn from the experience, the two are definitely worthy of a place in the notebook.
The next race was a Class 2 sprint over 6 furlongs: the race of the day.
My selection: course specialist Ingleby Arch was supported, though not to the tune of the favourite Felday, who duly obliged under a strong ride from Steve Drowne, getting on top in the final furlong to beat Ingleby Arch by a half-length, with a further half-length back to Indian Skipper, the three pulling well clear of the rest.
After five races I’d not managed a winner, but the placepot ticket was still alive and my nap of the day was coming up.
Lucky Punt had speed figures far in excess of the rest of the field and with only Luberon rated a danger; he was a confident banker selection in the last leg of the placepot. In great form with 4 course wins from his last 6, Lucky Punt was well fancied by the punters on course and my hope for 15/8 was highly unlikely to come to fruition as the biggest price on offer in the village was a measly 11/8 - and that didn’t last long.
As the chestnut stormed clear on the turn for home, the 11/8 looked like great value and so it proved as Fergus Sweeney eased him down to record a comfortable 5 length win, value for almost double that.
So, the placepot was won, but with plenty of fancied runners making the frame, paid only a measly £31.
Any return is better than nothing and there was still time for a decent bet on the in-form Shadows Lengthen in the 11-furlong handicap.
The Mick Easterby runner proved his well being with the easiest win of the day, making all to win in a canter-much to the appreciation of the crowd who were still braving the dipping temperatures. He certainly is in rude health at the minute, and is worth following for odd-on backers in this afternoon’s 1.30 contest over the same course and distance.
His adjusted speed figure for Saturday’s race (94) is more than good enough for him to be competitive in Class 4 events, and today sees him trying to make it four-in-a-row, in a class 6 handicap, where a 6lb penalty is unlikely to hinder his chances.
I succumbed to the elements and made my exit prior to the last race, in which Saute was a ready winner after tracking the pace throughout.
All in all - an informative day: with Doctor Zhivago, Lucky Punt and Shadows Lengthen all taking the eye. I will follow the three over the winter, along with Dynamic Idol and I am hopeful of a few bold shows.
It will also be interesting to see where R Woody turns up next, and whether he can replicate his much improved performance.
There was a pronounced pace bias in existence on the day, with all races won by a horse making, or laying close up to the pace. I awarded the meeting a Pace figure of 71, which indicates a significant bias to prominent racers.
Southwell Speed Figures (5/12/09)
Going allowance +16
Race PAR Adjusted
1 75 68 (-7)
2 73 56 (-17)
3 63 75 (+12)
4 70 77 (+7)
5 101 93 (-8)
6 94 95 (+1)
7 83 94 (+11)
8 75 85 (+10)
Jackie Kiely: my selection in the first race was all the rage in the market, however he was not alone as there had been quite a lot of (obviously) smart money in the morning for Merrion Tiger who hacked up by an eased down 7 lengths. Greg Fairley even afforded himself a cheeky glance over the shoulder at the 1/2 furlong pole, but there was no danger from the one paced Jackie Kiely and Altos Reales who were battling for minor honours only.
A closer finish in the ensuing 2-year-old sprint over the straight 5 as Point to Prove improved on his Wolverhampton run to pip my selection Lucky Mellor in the final 50 yards. However, on closer inspection, the form is to be treated with caution as the time was the slowest of the day and over a second slower than the Class 6 juvenile sprint that followed.
R Woodys's speed figures in his previous two races were 22 and 1. Hardly inspiring reading and even the most optimistic punter could not have seen any promise in his 9 length defeat at Wolverhampton some 79 days earlier.
However, all was not as it seemed and only the trained eye would have noticed R Woody was somewhat lighter in the nether regions than his last racecourse appearance. Still described as a colt in the official racecard the gelding operation obviously worked the oracle as he blasted home @ 100/1 to silence a stunned crowd, most of whom held a ticket bearing the name of the well backed favourite Brigadoon, who disappointed under one K. Fallon, to me, he looked all the world like he needed at least one extra furlong.
I was looking forward to the next race and two debutants with hot pedigrees.
Pick of the paddock was the imposing ‘Dynamic Idol’ a huge Dynaformer colt, and apparently, according to course commentator Graham Goode – the apple of his trainers eye.
Dynamic Idol was well-backed into favouritism ahead of the other well-bred colt - Doctor Zhivago, and it was the Mark Johnston trained grey that came out on top in the final furlong to win impressively, despite running green throughout.
Dynamic Idol is worth another chance however, as he was bustled along early, and had to be jostled around the home bend, he finished a staying on 4th and looks as though he’d learn from the experience, the two are definitely worthy of a place in the notebook.
The next race was a Class 2 sprint over 6 furlongs: the race of the day.
My selection: course specialist Ingleby Arch was supported, though not to the tune of the favourite Felday, who duly obliged under a strong ride from Steve Drowne, getting on top in the final furlong to beat Ingleby Arch by a half-length, with a further half-length back to Indian Skipper, the three pulling well clear of the rest.
After five races I’d not managed a winner, but the placepot ticket was still alive and my nap of the day was coming up.
Lucky Punt had speed figures far in excess of the rest of the field and with only Luberon rated a danger; he was a confident banker selection in the last leg of the placepot. In great form with 4 course wins from his last 6, Lucky Punt was well fancied by the punters on course and my hope for 15/8 was highly unlikely to come to fruition as the biggest price on offer in the village was a measly 11/8 - and that didn’t last long.
As the chestnut stormed clear on the turn for home, the 11/8 looked like great value and so it proved as Fergus Sweeney eased him down to record a comfortable 5 length win, value for almost double that.
So, the placepot was won, but with plenty of fancied runners making the frame, paid only a measly £31.
Any return is better than nothing and there was still time for a decent bet on the in-form Shadows Lengthen in the 11-furlong handicap.
The Mick Easterby runner proved his well being with the easiest win of the day, making all to win in a canter-much to the appreciation of the crowd who were still braving the dipping temperatures. He certainly is in rude health at the minute, and is worth following for odd-on backers in this afternoon’s 1.30 contest over the same course and distance.
His adjusted speed figure for Saturday’s race (94) is more than good enough for him to be competitive in Class 4 events, and today sees him trying to make it four-in-a-row, in a class 6 handicap, where a 6lb penalty is unlikely to hinder his chances.
I succumbed to the elements and made my exit prior to the last race, in which Saute was a ready winner after tracking the pace throughout.
All in all - an informative day: with Doctor Zhivago, Lucky Punt and Shadows Lengthen all taking the eye. I will follow the three over the winter, along with Dynamic Idol and I am hopeful of a few bold shows.
It will also be interesting to see where R Woody turns up next, and whether he can replicate his much improved performance.
There was a pronounced pace bias in existence on the day, with all races won by a horse making, or laying close up to the pace. I awarded the meeting a Pace figure of 71, which indicates a significant bias to prominent racers.
Southwell Speed Figures (5/12/09)
Going allowance +16
Race PAR Adjusted
1 75 68 (-7)
2 73 56 (-17)
3 63 75 (+12)
4 70 77 (+7)
5 101 93 (-8)
6 94 95 (+1)
7 83 94 (+11)
8 75 85 (+10)
Friday, 4 December 2009
Early Weekend Thoughts....
Southwell - Saturday 5th December
I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.
First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.
We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.
The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.
The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.
Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.
The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.
The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.
A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).
11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.
Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.
Hollywood_G
I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.
First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.
We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.
The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.
The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.
Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.
The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.
The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.
A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).
11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.
Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.
Hollywood_G
Thursday, 3 December 2009
The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 3]
Weight (w) = Mass (m) x Acceleration (g - gravity)
Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!
The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.
Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)
How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.
For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.
As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.
It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!
However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....
Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!
The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.
Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)
How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.
For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.
As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.
It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!
However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....
Sunday, 29 November 2009
The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 2]
[cog 2] Class Pars and Going allowances.
Pars.
As discussed in the previous blog, we now know how to calculate a RAW speed figure dependent on the time taken for the winner to win a given race.
However, this figure is not the one we award the horse. Before we assign a figure for the race we need to calculate how big a part the racing surface played in the time of the race.
The way we do this is to ‘estimate’ how fast each race should have been run. This is similar in a way to assigning a ‘Par’ to a Golf course, the par being the amount of shots it should take to complete the 9 or 18 holes.
It is fairly easy to assume that Group Class horses, i.e. the best horses in the World, will run a lot faster than horses competing for a Class 7 event at Wolverhampton on a Friday night.
But how much faster?
In his excellent book, Mordin On Time (available via Aesculus Press) Nick Mordin details how over the years he has calculated that a race for older (3year old +) Listed Class animals will be run approximately 3.6 seconds slower than the standard time for every mile of the race.
For example: the previous blog states that the standard time for 1 mile (1760yds) at Kempton is 95 seconds.
A listed class race therefore is estimated to be take 98.6 seconds to complete.
(95 seconds + 3.6 seconds for every mile) = 98.6 seconds.
A similar calculation is performed for a race over 2 miles. The standard time for 2 miles at Kempton is 201.2 seconds. Therefore the estimate for a listed class race is (201.2 + (3.6 x 2 miles)) 208.4 seconds.
Using the formula detailed previously to work out a RAW speed figure awards the above two performances a rating of 112 and 114 respectively.
Nick also states that races confined to 2 year olds, 3 year olds or Filly/Mare only races will be run slower than the 3.6 seconds per mile.
The following table details the estimated seconds per mile slower each race should be run for all class of races in the UK.
Pars.
As discussed in the previous blog, we now know how to calculate a RAW speed figure dependent on the time taken for the winner to win a given race.
However, this figure is not the one we award the horse. Before we assign a figure for the race we need to calculate how big a part the racing surface played in the time of the race.
The way we do this is to ‘estimate’ how fast each race should have been run. This is similar in a way to assigning a ‘Par’ to a Golf course, the par being the amount of shots it should take to complete the 9 or 18 holes.
It is fairly easy to assume that Group Class horses, i.e. the best horses in the World, will run a lot faster than horses competing for a Class 7 event at Wolverhampton on a Friday night.
But how much faster?
In his excellent book, Mordin On Time (available via Aesculus Press) Nick Mordin details how over the years he has calculated that a race for older (3year old +) Listed Class animals will be run approximately 3.6 seconds slower than the standard time for every mile of the race.
For example: the previous blog states that the standard time for 1 mile (1760yds) at Kempton is 95 seconds.
A listed class race therefore is estimated to be take 98.6 seconds to complete.
(95 seconds + 3.6 seconds for every mile) = 98.6 seconds.
A similar calculation is performed for a race over 2 miles. The standard time for 2 miles at Kempton is 201.2 seconds. Therefore the estimate for a listed class race is (201.2 + (3.6 x 2 miles)) 208.4 seconds.
Using the formula detailed previously to work out a RAW speed figure awards the above two performances a rating of 112 and 114 respectively.
Nick also states that races confined to 2 year olds, 3 year olds or Filly/Mare only races will be run slower than the 3.6 seconds per mile.
The following table details the estimated seconds per mile slower each race should be run for all class of races in the UK.
Note: The prediction for a class 1 race over 6 furlongs is worked out as follows:
6 furlongs = 0.75 of a mile. Therefore 3.6*0.75 = 2.7.
A Class 1 race over 6 furlongs is estimated at 2.7 seconds above standard.
A RAW speed calculation much like the previous section can be performed using the above table to indicate a figure for any race.
Performing the calculation using the standard time for every racecourse in the UK, gives a PAR time figure for every distance at any course for any type of race.
These ensuing figures averaged out, result in the following PAR figures.
6 furlongs = 0.75 of a mile. Therefore 3.6*0.75 = 2.7.
A Class 1 race over 6 furlongs is estimated at 2.7 seconds above standard.
A RAW speed calculation much like the previous section can be performed using the above table to indicate a figure for any race.
Performing the calculation using the standard time for every racecourse in the UK, gives a PAR time figure for every distance at any course for any type of race.
These ensuing figures averaged out, result in the following PAR figures.
Following a few years of using the figures I estimate that Group Class races (above Class 1 listed) are run a few points quicker for each Group Class, i.e. Group 3s are generally quicker than Class 1, Group 2s quicker than Group 3 etc.
Therefore, an updated PAR comparison table looks like the one below:
Therefore, an updated PAR comparison table looks like the one below:
Going Allowances.
We can now estimate using the table above what Speed Figure each race run in the UK should achieve based on the horses that are running in it.
For example, yesterday (Saturday 28th Nov 2009) the 2.15 “Jacksbridge Handicap” at Lingfield Park was a Class 2, 10f race for older horses (3 YO+).
According to the table above, the Par figure for a race of this nature is 101. For the winner to achieve a figure of 101, the race should be won in 127.3 seconds.
However, the winner ‘Bound By Honour’ won the race in a time of 125.27 seconds, earning a RAW speed figure of 118, some 17 points above the Par time.
This +17 points may indicate that Bound By Honour is a Group 3 horse in a Class 2 race, or it may be due to the racing surface speeding up the horse enabling a quicker time to be attained.
The way in which this argument is settled is to compare the estimated PAR times and the achieved RAW times for the rest of the days results at the same course, as follows.
The above table shows that the surface at Lingfield yesterday was very fast and speeding up horses by an average of 36 points each race.
The going allowance is therefore said to be +36.
The original RAW figure for Bound By Honours performance was 118, however this is now adjusted by subtracting the Going Allowance of 36, resulting in final speed figure of 82, some 19 points below the Par of 101 - hardly the group 3-class performance it looked originally. In actual fact the PAR table shows this performance to be more akin to an average class 5 event.
Obviously other important factors such as pace etc may have played a part in the fairly poor time, (Pace will be explored in another blog) but from my calculations there was no real pace bias yesterday at Lingfield, all of the races were won by horses up with the pace throughout. I would be wary of the future worth of the form of this race.
It can be seen from the comparison table that the best performance of the day was in Race No.2 - a Class 5 event for 2 year olds over 6 furlongs.
This race was awarded a speed figure of 83, some 13 points above the PAR of 70. The winner ‘Tenacestream’ performed well on his debut to earn a figure that would put him around Class 3 level in his age group.
He could be worth watching when turned out again, as he should improve for his first run.
This concludes the basic mechanics behind the calculation of speed figures.
The calculations shown can be performed for every race worldwide, as long as you have an accurate set of standard times and Par Times from which to work with.
There are other aspects that could influence the figures; such as the pace of a race or changes in weather conditions part way through a meeting. These variables may lead to minor adjustments, and will be explored in later blogs.
Saturday, 28 November 2009
The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 1]
Standard Times.
The general rule of speed figures is similar to the majority of things in life, be it career, relationship or otherwise – “the more you give, the more you get”.
To achieve an accurate data output from the formulae behind the speed figures, you need an accurate data input.
Calculation of speed figures can seem tedious to some, but the effort put into the calculations definitely pays off when you spot a 10/1 shot with much higher speed figures than the rest of the field.
Calculation of figures starts with a set of ‘Standard Times’, for each race distance at each Racecourse.
The standard times below are the ones I have used for a few years (thanks to Nick Mordin @ www.nickmordin.com) for races run at Kempton Park; I have similar figures for any distance at every racecourse in the UK and Ireland.
These times represent the fastest it should be possible for a racehorse to run from A (starting stalls) to B (winning post), given perfect racing ground and no tail/headwind.
Dist(yds) (miles) (furlongs) Std. Time (secs)
1100 0 5 57.7
1320 0 6 70
1540 0 7 82.3
1760 1 8 95
2200 1 2 121.3
2420 1 3 134.6
2640 1 4 147.9
2860 1 5 161.3
3520 2 0 201.2
Now, it is necessary to assign an arbitrary speed figure to the times above.
If a horse runs 5 furlongs at Kempton in 57.7 seconds, the RAW (not adjusted for the state of the going) speed figure will be the assigned figure, be it 100, 150, 175 or even 0.
Personally, I use a rating of 150 to indicate a horse has achieved a RAW figure equal to the Standard Time.
What RAW speed figure would a horse earn that ran the 5 furlongs in 58.7seconds?
Well, 58.7 seconds – 57.7 seconds = 1 seconds.
(1 second is the equivalent of 5 x 1-fifth (0.2) of a second, where 1-fifth of a second is generally thought of to be the equivalent of 1 horse length).
Therefore a horse running the 5 furlongs in 1 second above standard - 58.7 seconds, should earn a RAW speed figure of 145 right? 150 – 5 (for 5 lengths or 5 1-fifths of a second) – not quite.
The value of a fifth of a second (1 length) is dependent on the distance of the race; this can be easily understood if you think of the equivalent in Human Athletic terms.
· The current world record for the 100 metres sprint is 9.58 seconds recorded by Usain Bolt.*
· The current world record for the 10,000 metres is 1577.53 seconds recorded by Kenenisa Bekele.*
* correct at time of going to press (Nov 2009)
In my day (read school days!) in the 100 metres I could probably get within 6 seconds of Usain Bolts record time.
Do I think I could get within 6 seconds of Kenenisa Bekele’s record time in the 10,000 metres – not even on a bike!
Which is the better performance? Obviously getting within 6 seconds of the record for the longer race is much superior, and should be rated accordingly.
This is similar for equine performance, the merit of a horse’s time performance has got to be dependent on the distance of the race.
The way we can assess the importance of a fifth of a second (1 length) at differing distances is to perform the following calculation.
This calculation is performed in two steps:
A = 1 / (Standard Time (secs) x 5)
B = A x 1000.
The standard time for Kempton over five furlongs is 57.7 seconds or 288.5 fifths of a second. One fifth of a second therefore represents 1/288.5 of the race, or 0.034% of the entire race. If we move the decimal point over (i.e. 0.0346x1000) we can then use 3.46 points (3.5 rounded) to indicate 1 length over 5 furlongs.
A time of 58.7 seconds, (1 second or 5 fifths/second above standard) for 5 furlongs at Kempton earns a RAW speed figure of 150-(3.5x5) = 133 (rounded).
This formula can be used to calculate a RAW speed figure for any distance at any racecourse, as long as you have a standard time from which to begin.
In the next blog I will discuss Class Par Figures for the various class of race run here in the UK, how the Pars can be used to estimate how fast each race should be run in comparison to the Standard Time, and the calculation of a Going Allowance - which indicates how much the racing surface is affecting the horses in a race.
The general rule of speed figures is similar to the majority of things in life, be it career, relationship or otherwise – “the more you give, the more you get”.
To achieve an accurate data output from the formulae behind the speed figures, you need an accurate data input.
Calculation of speed figures can seem tedious to some, but the effort put into the calculations definitely pays off when you spot a 10/1 shot with much higher speed figures than the rest of the field.
Calculation of figures starts with a set of ‘Standard Times’, for each race distance at each Racecourse.
The standard times below are the ones I have used for a few years (thanks to Nick Mordin @ www.nickmordin.com) for races run at Kempton Park; I have similar figures for any distance at every racecourse in the UK and Ireland.
These times represent the fastest it should be possible for a racehorse to run from A (starting stalls) to B (winning post), given perfect racing ground and no tail/headwind.
Dist(yds) (miles) (furlongs) Std. Time (secs)
1100 0 5 57.7
1320 0 6 70
1540 0 7 82.3
1760 1 8 95
2200 1 2 121.3
2420 1 3 134.6
2640 1 4 147.9
2860 1 5 161.3
3520 2 0 201.2
Now, it is necessary to assign an arbitrary speed figure to the times above.
If a horse runs 5 furlongs at Kempton in 57.7 seconds, the RAW (not adjusted for the state of the going) speed figure will be the assigned figure, be it 100, 150, 175 or even 0.
Personally, I use a rating of 150 to indicate a horse has achieved a RAW figure equal to the Standard Time.
What RAW speed figure would a horse earn that ran the 5 furlongs in 58.7seconds?
Well, 58.7 seconds – 57.7 seconds = 1 seconds.
(1 second is the equivalent of 5 x 1-fifth (0.2) of a second, where 1-fifth of a second is generally thought of to be the equivalent of 1 horse length).
Therefore a horse running the 5 furlongs in 1 second above standard - 58.7 seconds, should earn a RAW speed figure of 145 right? 150 – 5 (for 5 lengths or 5 1-fifths of a second) – not quite.
The value of a fifth of a second (1 length) is dependent on the distance of the race; this can be easily understood if you think of the equivalent in Human Athletic terms.
· The current world record for the 100 metres sprint is 9.58 seconds recorded by Usain Bolt.*
· The current world record for the 10,000 metres is 1577.53 seconds recorded by Kenenisa Bekele.*
* correct at time of going to press (Nov 2009)
In my day (read school days!) in the 100 metres I could probably get within 6 seconds of Usain Bolts record time.
Do I think I could get within 6 seconds of Kenenisa Bekele’s record time in the 10,000 metres – not even on a bike!
Which is the better performance? Obviously getting within 6 seconds of the record for the longer race is much superior, and should be rated accordingly.
This is similar for equine performance, the merit of a horse’s time performance has got to be dependent on the distance of the race.
The way we can assess the importance of a fifth of a second (1 length) at differing distances is to perform the following calculation.
This calculation is performed in two steps:
A = 1 / (Standard Time (secs) x 5)
B = A x 1000.
The standard time for Kempton over five furlongs is 57.7 seconds or 288.5 fifths of a second. One fifth of a second therefore represents 1/288.5 of the race, or 0.034% of the entire race. If we move the decimal point over (i.e. 0.0346x1000) we can then use 3.46 points (3.5 rounded) to indicate 1 length over 5 furlongs.
A time of 58.7 seconds, (1 second or 5 fifths/second above standard) for 5 furlongs at Kempton earns a RAW speed figure of 150-(3.5x5) = 133 (rounded).
This formula can be used to calculate a RAW speed figure for any distance at any racecourse, as long as you have a standard time from which to begin.
In the next blog I will discuss Class Par Figures for the various class of race run here in the UK, how the Pars can be used to estimate how fast each race should be run in comparison to the Standard Time, and the calculation of a Going Allowance - which indicates how much the racing surface is affecting the horses in a race.
Tuesday, 24 November 2009
The difficult first post...
I have been toying with the idea of a blog for a while now, probably about two years late I suppose but hey...
The purpose of my blog is to share my various musings regarding All Weather Horse Racing in the UK and possibly during the 'big' meetings where the UK is represented (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup etc) I will venture- unfortunately, hypothetically-to foreign climes and explore the goings on outside of these shores.
So: "Why All weather racing? surely some of the lowest standard of horse racing in the UK right?"
Well, I suppose in prize money terms then yes, but its not all about the money is it? ....is it?....
A few years ago I started to compile Speed Figures for all Flat races run in the UK. The aim of which was to use as another piece of useful information to aid the solution of the huge handicapping puzzle.
The figures are created using a composite of methods adopted by the 'experts', the UKs very own Nick Mordin (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Nick%20Mordin)
and Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Andrew%20Beyer).
I will delve into the mechanics of the production of these Figures in a later blog, for now it is sufficient for me to tell you that these figures seem to be more reliable, more successful and more profitable for races run on the All-Weather Tracks in the UK - Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Wolverhampton & Southwell. (Great Leighs was not around long enough to get a proper grasp of the figures).
Obviously, following more success for the figures at these courses I began to take more of an interest in the All-Weather side of racing, and that is where the idea of this blog came from, an opportunity to share my knowledge, thoughts and quite possibly the many rants at certain jockeys, along with the figures I produce and the opportunity to share some winning wagers.
I aim to update the blog on a weekly basis - other commitments permitting - with a write-up of what I, along with my speed figures, believe to be the single All-Weather 'performance of the week', along with any other related information which I feel may be beneficial.
I've now rambled on for far too long, so I will sign off and concentrate on my first 'performance of the week' blog, thanks for reading and may all of your bets be winning ones...
Hollywood_G
The purpose of my blog is to share my various musings regarding All Weather Horse Racing in the UK and possibly during the 'big' meetings where the UK is represented (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup etc) I will venture- unfortunately, hypothetically-to foreign climes and explore the goings on outside of these shores.
So: "Why All weather racing? surely some of the lowest standard of horse racing in the UK right?"
Well, I suppose in prize money terms then yes, but its not all about the money is it? ....is it?....
A few years ago I started to compile Speed Figures for all Flat races run in the UK. The aim of which was to use as another piece of useful information to aid the solution of the huge handicapping puzzle.
The figures are created using a composite of methods adopted by the 'experts', the UKs very own Nick Mordin (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Nick%20Mordin)
and Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Andrew%20Beyer).
I will delve into the mechanics of the production of these Figures in a later blog, for now it is sufficient for me to tell you that these figures seem to be more reliable, more successful and more profitable for races run on the All-Weather Tracks in the UK - Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Wolverhampton & Southwell. (Great Leighs was not around long enough to get a proper grasp of the figures).
Obviously, following more success for the figures at these courses I began to take more of an interest in the All-Weather side of racing, and that is where the idea of this blog came from, an opportunity to share my knowledge, thoughts and quite possibly the many rants at certain jockeys, along with the figures I produce and the opportunity to share some winning wagers.
I aim to update the blog on a weekly basis - other commitments permitting - with a write-up of what I, along with my speed figures, believe to be the single All-Weather 'performance of the week', along with any other related information which I feel may be beneficial.
I've now rambled on for far too long, so I will sign off and concentrate on my first 'performance of the week' blog, thanks for reading and may all of your bets be winning ones...
Hollywood_G
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