Inheritor did the blog proud on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton.
The race panned out pretty much exactly as expected, although the horse I did think would make the running Laafet, missed the kick completely.
However Tom Eaves managed to stalk the pace and get a decent rail position to hit the front just after the home bend and hold on from the fast finishing CanCanStar.
This week is quite an important week for all-weather racing in the UK, with two listed contests taking place. Saturday see's Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger bidding to follow up his recent win in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield, and tonight sees Irish Raider 'Dohasa' bidding to retain Kemptons Sunbury Stakes for Ireland, after Duff's win in the race last year.
Tonights race has an intriguing look to it, with a few horses in with a shout.
The Contenders:
Obviously 'Dohasa' is the form pick after finishing runner-up in three Group races in Ireland. He is proven on the polytrack as proved by his win at Dundalk, where he earned a big speed figure, winning fairly readily.
He is an admirably consistent horse, and it will be no surprise to see him performing with credit out in Dubai in the coming months, as he has done the last two years.
'Aeroplane' was once touted by trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam as a potential superstar. He has lost his way rather over the years but showed he still had potential by hacking up in two claiming races on the Polytrack. These were obviously intended as confidence boosters but he acheived decent speed figures without fully asserting himself. These wins along with a change in yard to David Evans could work the oracle. He is drawn wide but is generally held-up off the pace anyway, so this shouldnt be too much of an inconvenience.
'Black Dahlia' slammed her rivals by 6 lengths over C&D last time out. Improving to a speed figure around Class 2 level, and again was probably value for a little higher figure. I can't see her being good enough to win, but she is clearly thriving at the minute and could run into a place.
As the lone speed in the race 'Dunelight' is very interesting.
He is arguably the classiest of this bunch, and has been campaigned in Group Races throughout his career, finishing only 2 3/4 lengths behind Paco Boy in the 2008 running of the Lennox at Goodwood. His only racecourse appearance since then was last month on this course, where he bounced out in front and didnt quite get home over the mile. He should strip fitter for that and now back to 7 furlongs should not be allowed too much rope in front, as although Kempton does not generally favour speed horses, he could just hold on in front. The draw has not been kind to him, but he should be able to cross over and gain the lead from Box.11.
Kieren Fallon rides 'Ceremonial Jade' for the bang-in-form Marco Botti yard. He couldnt live with the blistering Jaconet last time out, but neither could the rest of the field. That was his first run for 6 months and he did run well in this race last year. His speed figures are up there with the best tonight.
All in all its a tricky race. Given the likely pace scenario with Dunelight forcing a strong pace, and plenty of these stalking, it could be set up for a horse coming from off the pace. Ceremonial Jade will be held up, but the horse I like at a very fair price is 'AEROPLANE'. His two recent runs look to have done him the world of good and if his jockey doesnt have him too far back and give him too much to do, he could put up a decent fight to the finish. I would actually prefer to see Jamie Spencer back up top tonight, as Aeroplane is the sort of hold up performer he excels with.
Currently a 14/1 shot with various firms, he is the bet tonight, although I may also play some combination forecasts with the above mentioned horses.
Hollywood_G
Missed the Saturday night tip of 'Inheritor' so not letting this one go. Fingers crossed your good form continues!
ReplyDeleteWell, the 5 horses mentioned as contenders finished 1,2,3,5 & 6 which isn't too bad.
ReplyDeleteAlthough Aeroplane didnt really seem to quite get home tonight, he showed up well on the heels of the leaders about a furlong out, but couldn't quite get there and faded into 6th.
Dunelight wasn't allowed the easy lead as I anticipated with Carcinetto taking him on throughout, although I think Dohasa was probably a deserved winner.