Early Weekend Thoughts....

Southwell - Saturday 5th December

I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.

First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.

We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.

The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.

The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.

Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.

The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.

The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.

A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).

11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
  2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
  2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.

Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.

Hollywood_G