Standard Times.
The general rule of speed figures is similar to the majority of things in life, be it career, relationship or otherwise – “the more you give, the more you get”.
To achieve an accurate data output from the formulae behind the speed figures, you need an accurate data input.
Calculation of speed figures can seem tedious to some, but the effort put into the calculations definitely pays off when you spot a 10/1 shot with much higher speed figures than the rest of the field.
Calculation of figures starts with a set of ‘Standard Times’, for each race distance at each Racecourse.
The standard times below are the ones I have used for a few years (thanks to Nick Mordin @ www.nickmordin.com) for races run at Kempton Park; I have similar figures for any distance at every racecourse in the UK and Ireland.
These times represent the fastest it should be possible for a racehorse to run from A (starting stalls) to B (winning post), given perfect racing ground and no tail/headwind.
Dist(yds) (miles) (furlongs) Std. Time (secs)
1100 0 5 57.7
1320 0 6 70
1540 0 7 82.3
1760 1 8 95
2200 1 2 121.3
2420 1 3 134.6
2640 1 4 147.9
2860 1 5 161.3
3520 2 0 201.2
Now, it is necessary to assign an arbitrary speed figure to the times above.
If a horse runs 5 furlongs at Kempton in 57.7 seconds, the RAW (not adjusted for the state of the going) speed figure will be the assigned figure, be it 100, 150, 175 or even 0.
Personally, I use a rating of 150 to indicate a horse has achieved a RAW figure equal to the Standard Time.
What RAW speed figure would a horse earn that ran the 5 furlongs in 58.7seconds?
Well, 58.7 seconds – 57.7 seconds = 1 seconds.
(1 second is the equivalent of 5 x 1-fifth (0.2) of a second, where 1-fifth of a second is generally thought of to be the equivalent of 1 horse length).
Therefore a horse running the 5 furlongs in 1 second above standard - 58.7 seconds, should earn a RAW speed figure of 145 right? 150 – 5 (for 5 lengths or 5 1-fifths of a second) – not quite.
The value of a fifth of a second (1 length) is dependent on the distance of the race; this can be easily understood if you think of the equivalent in Human Athletic terms.
· The current world record for the 100 metres sprint is 9.58 seconds recorded by Usain Bolt.*
· The current world record for the 10,000 metres is 1577.53 seconds recorded by Kenenisa Bekele.*
* correct at time of going to press (Nov 2009)
In my day (read school days!) in the 100 metres I could probably get within 6 seconds of Usain Bolts record time.
Do I think I could get within 6 seconds of Kenenisa Bekele’s record time in the 10,000 metres – not even on a bike!
Which is the better performance? Obviously getting within 6 seconds of the record for the longer race is much superior, and should be rated accordingly.
This is similar for equine performance, the merit of a horse’s time performance has got to be dependent on the distance of the race.
The way we can assess the importance of a fifth of a second (1 length) at differing distances is to perform the following calculation.
This calculation is performed in two steps:
A = 1 / (Standard Time (secs) x 5)
B = A x 1000.
The standard time for Kempton over five furlongs is 57.7 seconds or 288.5 fifths of a second. One fifth of a second therefore represents 1/288.5 of the race, or 0.034% of the entire race. If we move the decimal point over (i.e. 0.0346x1000) we can then use 3.46 points (3.5 rounded) to indicate 1 length over 5 furlongs.
A time of 58.7 seconds, (1 second or 5 fifths/second above standard) for 5 furlongs at Kempton earns a RAW speed figure of 150-(3.5x5) = 133 (rounded).
This formula can be used to calculate a RAW speed figure for any distance at any racecourse, as long as you have a standard time from which to begin.
In the next blog I will discuss Class Par Figures for the various class of race run here in the UK, how the Pars can be used to estimate how fast each race should be run in comparison to the Standard Time, and the calculation of a Going Allowance - which indicates how much the racing surface is affecting the horses in a race.
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