No joy yesterday as Seek The Fair Land was totally undone by the lack of pace in the race at Kempton. Sent off at 8/11 he was many punters idea of a good thing but it wasnt to be and he finished runner-up behind L'Hirondelle. The race earned a speed figure of only 74, which is 12 points below the Class Par, and highlights the lack of pace present in the race.
Incidentally there has been a distinct bias towards hold up performers at Kempton over the last few days, the two meetings earning pace figures of only 28 & 26 respectively. This indicates a significant advantage to hold up horses, and may be worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of meetings there - although it may be down in part to the wintery weather we have been enduring recently.
A late addition to the Hollywood A-List is 'Kingsgate Castle', who finished 2nd in yesterdays 4.35 at Kempton. Denied a run up the straight behind a wall of horses, Gay Kelleways colt finished strongly once seeing daylight and would have gone very close given a clear run. He earned an impressive speed figure when winning over C&D on December 16th and should be worth keeping an eye on in Class 5/6 contests.
No All-Weather racing, or any racing at all, until Boxing Day when Kauto Star is the main attraction in the King George VI Chase, bidding to win the race for the fourth year running.
However I will be busy attempting to unearth a more suitable betting proposition on Wolverhamptons polytrack, the same afternoon.
Merry Christmas to all.
Best Wishes
Hollywood_G
Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Sunday, 20 December 2009
Stick with 'Seek The Fair Land' to swell the Xmas coffers....
After a decent performance by Spinning to finish 3rd today (SP of 14/1), another Hollywood A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' goes at Kempton tomorrow in the 4.05 Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs.
Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.
A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.
Hollywood_G
Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.
A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.
Hollywood_G
Spinning to turn things around....
Yesterday wasnt a great day for the blog with both Sky Crusader and Mister New York failing to make the frame. I'm not a sore loser, and both horses were not good enough on the day, but I was not impressed with the rides given to both horses by jockeys Steve Drowne & George Baker respectively.
In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.
In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.
Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.
Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.
Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.
Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.
Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.
Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ
In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.
In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.
Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.
Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.
Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.
Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.
Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.
Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)