Luckily the forecast rain in Nottinghamshire did not rear its ugly head on Saturday and I managed to attend the pre-midday starting Southwell meeting.
Jackie Kiely: my selection in the first race was all the rage in the market, however he was not alone as there had been quite a lot of (obviously) smart money in the morning for Merrion Tiger who hacked up by an eased down 7 lengths. Greg Fairley even afforded himself a cheeky glance over the shoulder at the 1/2 furlong pole, but there was no danger from the one paced Jackie Kiely and Altos Reales who were battling for minor honours only.
A closer finish in the ensuing 2-year-old sprint over the straight 5 as Point to Prove improved on his Wolverhampton run to pip my selection Lucky Mellor in the final 50 yards. However, on closer inspection, the form is to be treated with caution as the time was the slowest of the day and over a second slower than the Class 6 juvenile sprint that followed.
R Woodys's speed figures in his previous two races were 22 and 1. Hardly inspiring reading and even the most optimistic punter could not have seen any promise in his 9 length defeat at Wolverhampton some 79 days earlier.
However, all was not as it seemed and only the trained eye would have noticed R Woody was somewhat lighter in the nether regions than his last racecourse appearance. Still described as a colt in the official racecard the gelding operation obviously worked the oracle as he blasted home @ 100/1 to silence a stunned crowd, most of whom held a ticket bearing the name of the well backed favourite Brigadoon, who disappointed under one K. Fallon, to me, he looked all the world like he needed at least one extra furlong.
I was looking forward to the next race and two debutants with hot pedigrees.
Pick of the paddock was the imposing ‘Dynamic Idol’ a huge Dynaformer colt, and apparently, according to course commentator Graham Goode – the apple of his trainers eye.
Dynamic Idol was well-backed into favouritism ahead of the other well-bred colt - Doctor Zhivago, and it was the Mark Johnston trained grey that came out on top in the final furlong to win impressively, despite running green throughout.
Dynamic Idol is worth another chance however, as he was bustled along early, and had to be jostled around the home bend, he finished a staying on 4th and looks as though he’d learn from the experience, the two are definitely worthy of a place in the notebook.
The next race was a Class 2 sprint over 6 furlongs: the race of the day.
My selection: course specialist Ingleby Arch was supported, though not to the tune of the favourite Felday, who duly obliged under a strong ride from Steve Drowne, getting on top in the final furlong to beat Ingleby Arch by a half-length, with a further half-length back to Indian Skipper, the three pulling well clear of the rest.
After five races I’d not managed a winner, but the placepot ticket was still alive and my nap of the day was coming up.
Lucky Punt had speed figures far in excess of the rest of the field and with only Luberon rated a danger; he was a confident banker selection in the last leg of the placepot. In great form with 4 course wins from his last 6, Lucky Punt was well fancied by the punters on course and my hope for 15/8 was highly unlikely to come to fruition as the biggest price on offer in the village was a measly 11/8 - and that didn’t last long.
As the chestnut stormed clear on the turn for home, the 11/8 looked like great value and so it proved as Fergus Sweeney eased him down to record a comfortable 5 length win, value for almost double that.
So, the placepot was won, but with plenty of fancied runners making the frame, paid only a measly £31.
Any return is better than nothing and there was still time for a decent bet on the in-form Shadows Lengthen in the 11-furlong handicap.
The Mick Easterby runner proved his well being with the easiest win of the day, making all to win in a canter-much to the appreciation of the crowd who were still braving the dipping temperatures. He certainly is in rude health at the minute, and is worth following for odd-on backers in this afternoon’s 1.30 contest over the same course and distance.
His adjusted speed figure for Saturday’s race (94) is more than good enough for him to be competitive in Class 4 events, and today sees him trying to make it four-in-a-row, in a class 6 handicap, where a 6lb penalty is unlikely to hinder his chances.
I succumbed to the elements and made my exit prior to the last race, in which Saute was a ready winner after tracking the pace throughout.
All in all - an informative day: with Doctor Zhivago, Lucky Punt and Shadows Lengthen all taking the eye. I will follow the three over the winter, along with Dynamic Idol and I am hopeful of a few bold shows.
It will also be interesting to see where R Woody turns up next, and whether he can replicate his much improved performance.
There was a pronounced pace bias in existence on the day, with all races won by a horse making, or laying close up to the pace. I awarded the meeting a Pace figure of 71, which indicates a significant bias to prominent racers.
Southwell Speed Figures (5/12/09)
Going allowance +16
Race PAR Adjusted
1 75 68 (-7)
2 73 56 (-17)
3 63 75 (+12)
4 70 77 (+7)
5 101 93 (-8)
6 94 95 (+1)
7 83 94 (+11)
8 75 85 (+10)
Tuesday, 8 December 2009
Friday, 4 December 2009
Early Weekend Thoughts....
Southwell - Saturday 5th December
I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.
First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.
We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.
The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.
The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.
Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.
The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.
The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.
A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).
11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.
Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.
Hollywood_G
I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.
First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.
We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.
The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.
The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.
Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.
The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.
The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.
A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).
11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.
Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.
Hollywood_G
Thursday, 3 December 2009
The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 3]
Weight (w) = Mass (m) x Acceleration (g - gravity)
Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!
The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.
Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)
How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.
For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.
As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.
It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!
However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....
Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!
The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.
Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)
How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.
For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.
As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.
It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!
However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....
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