For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.
Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.
I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.
Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.
As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.
Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.
The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.
The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.
Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.
Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.
Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.
To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.
Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.
G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126
It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.
Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.
From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.
Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.
| Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com |
However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.
On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.
Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.
Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.
| Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com |
Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.
When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.
Hollywood_G
Hope you come back this winter, this blog has some really in depth analysis good work!
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