10/1 Hernando still the answer to $10million question...

The polytrack was riding on the fast side at Lingfield on Saturday, but that should not take away from a superb performance by Gitano Hernando in the 10f Winter Derby Trial, or Dubai World Cup trial in the case of Marco Botti's colt.

Switched off toward the back of the pack by Kieren Fallon, he made a race-ending move entering the straight and the race was over before it had really began.

Although he was expected to win, even at 90% full fitness, anybody seeing the race could not fail to be impressed with the way the horse quickened. The fact that he won very cosily with his ears pricked in a very very quick time only heightens my enthusiasm for his trip to Dubai at the end of March.

I mentioned in Saturdays blog that the figure of 119 for his win at Wolverhampton was the highest speed rating I had given a horse on a synthetic surface - scratch that!

The fast improving son of Hernando earned a figure of 122 on Saturday, by far the highest figure of this All-Weather season. If he was only 90% fit as Botti claimed, I for one cannot wait to see this horse racing at 100%, and at a best priced 10/1 with most firms, I have gone in again, as that represents real value.

It is worth noting that although the Tapeta surface at Meydan seems to provide no bias to turf or synthetic specialists, of the 44 races run on the surface this carnival, there had been 65 All-Weather race wins from 120 starts (54%) between the winning horses, as opposed to only 59 Turf wins from 227 starts (26%) and 22 wins from 95 starts on a Dirt surface (23%).

This highlights that horses with proven All-Weather form hold a slight edge over other horses, something which is obviously in Gitano Hernandos favour (4 from 4 on synthetics).

The same cannot be said for some of the other names at the head of the market. French raider and last years Prince of Wales stakes winner, Vision D'etat has no 'off-turf' experience, Breeders Cup Classic runner-up Gio Ponti, has 1 win and 1 place to his name from 3 pro-ride starts. This may be slightly insignificant however, as Pro-Ride is the synthetic surface that is most similar to running on turf, as shown by the number of European turf horses winning in the two previous Breeders Cups held on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Of the other horses towards the head of the market, Japanese superstar Espoir City has only Dirt experience to his name. Although that is top class Group 1 form, can he be relied upon to transfer that form to the synthetics?

Henry Cecils raider Twice Over has been the subject of strong praise for his recent workouts prior to heading out to Dubai. His Breeders Cup Classic placing behind Gio Ponti, along with his Champion Stakes win is certainly some of the strongest form on offer, however, he too has had only the 1 try over a 'turf-like' synthethic and was also the subject of rave reviews from gallops watchers throughout last season, subsequently disappointing at the highest level on a number of occasions.

Last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao, as he always seems to be, may be the forgotten horse in the race. The Brazilian bred 7 year old proved his liking for the Tapeta surface when successful in Round 1 of this years Maktoum Challenge and has proved himself a Group 1 horse in the past, most notably when pipping Presvis a head in the Singapore Airlines International in May of last year. Lightly raced since then, connections have had the World Cup in mind for some time and this adaptable horse is sure to be cherry ripe for the occasion.

Unless something creeps out of the woodwork from across the pond (rumours are rife that John Shireffs Breeders Cup Ladies Classic heroine Life is Sweet may be joining the party in Dubai, although again all of her wins have come on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride) then Gitano Hernando must have a huge chance of scooping the pot.

Recommendation:
Gitano Hernando to win Dubai World Cup @ 10/1