The first meeting, and the first 10% of the Dubai Carnival is over.
The opening meeting of the $2billion dollar Meydan course was no let-down and produced some excellent equine performances.
All reports of the new Tapeta surface were positive, and the track seemed to ride fairly evenly throughout the night, with winners coming from various pace angles and box positions 13, 1, 5, 11, 7, 11, 5.
If anything, the course seemed to suit those stalking or coming from off the pace, although a definite conclusion cannot be made after only one meeting.
Performances worthy of a second look include the Jeremy Noseda trained Leahurst's (11/8) win in the last race on the card, a 90-105 handicap over 7f. Stalking the pace, he was quickly pushed to the front under Ryan Moore and put the race to bed entering the straight to win going away.
However, perhaps the most impressive win of the night came from the Luca Cumani trained Drunken Sailor (5/1) who was value for more than his 2 1/4 length win over the ex-Cumani inmate Monte Alto. Given a great stalking ride from Kieren Fallon, the big gelding stormed to the front at the top of the straight and is definitely one to keep on the right side of during the carnival. He seemed to enjoy the Tapeta, and as he goes well on the Turf he has plenty of options.
Mike De Kock started the 2010 Carnival as though he meant business with two quick-fire winners courtesy of Raihana (11/4) and Lizards Desire (9/4), both ridden by uber-cool Frenchman Christophe Soumillon and both equally impressive. Lizards Desire got a perfect split on the rail, but he was always holding the challengers at the finish, lead by stablemate King Of Rome.
The first leg of the Maktoum Challenge (often seen as a trial for the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night, but has also been used as a stepping stone to the World Cup itself) went to last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao (12/1). Sitting just off the pace, the Pascal Bary trained Brazilian wore down the pace setting favourite-Godolphins Midshipman-in the final furlong, and held off the fast finishing Forgotten Voice (Noseda/Moore) for a 1/2 length victory. He will now be aimed at the World Cup in a bid to go one better than last year. Kieren Fallon partnered the multiple winning Saudi Arabian based Consul General. Unfancied in the market, the 25/1 shot looked a likely winner entering the straight, however a 3 month lay-off seemed to take its toll in the closing stages and he finished a tired 3rd, he will strip fitter for this run next time out and is worth a second look.
Elsewhere on the card, Godolphin registered a sole opening night win despite having short priced favourites in 4 of the 7 races. Whispering Gallery (6/4) dictated from the gate to record a comfortable victory in the 10f handicap, with the ultra reliable Halicarnussus holding on for 2nd.
Ted Durcan cajoled John Bests Sir Gerry (25/1) along at the back of the field in the only sprint on the card (6f). As the field entered the straight he quickly gathered momentum and flew down the outside in the closing stages to get up by 1/2 length. He could have been 'well-in' on his handicap debut.
All-in-all a fantastic opening night at a fantastic new venue and although the Dubai economy may well be feeling the pinch, the Carnival seems as though it will be as extravagant and as glamorous as ever this year. The next 90% should be well worth keeping an eye on.
Hollywood_G
Note:
Shadows Lengthen landed the six-timer at Southwell on Tuesday in grand style. A starting price of 11/4 was terrific value and he could go in again if his adept trainer can find him another opportunity.
A wide draw may have cost Imprimis Tagula in the 6 furlong sprint and he could do no more than fill the runner-up berth behind his better drawn rival Tourist. He could be worth chancing if he turns out again in the 'Super 7' qualifier at Lingfield on Saturday if hes not hindered by another wide box position.
Thursday, 28 January 2010
Monday, 25 January 2010
Why Do Shadows Lengthen?.....
Tomorrows 3.20 at Southwell sees the return of a Hollywood A-Lister searching for a six-timer in the shape of Mick Easterbys Shadows Lengthen.
Up 7lb for his latest win 2 weeks prior to Christmas, the inevitable step up in class occurs on his beloved Fibresand surface, where 5 others will be hoping a half stone increase stops him in his tracks.
His speed figures achieved when allowed to dictate the pace have been fairly consistent, and I can't envisage anything in the field that will take him on for the lead.
Profits Reality and Trachonitis rate as clear dangers on the figures, with the former preferred due to his prominent racing style.
Although Trachonitis did manage to get his nose in front last time out over the Fibresand, the surface was not riding anywhere near as quick as it has been on that occasion, earning a pace figure of only 43. The average since November is 63, which indicates a significant advantage to horses laying up with the early pace.
Up 10lb for his win on Dec 27, the trainers representative indicated following that win that he would be turned out again quickly under a penalty, this was not the case and could indicate the horse had a setback, or maybe the converse - that connections were confident, and more inclined to wait for a more profitable opportunity.
Although only 6 runners, this could be an interesting race. If Shadows Lengthen is allowed an uncontested lead, he will be difficult to peg back.
Elsewhere on the card, Imprimis Tagula bids to make amends for a poor showing last time out, where a change in tactics backfired spectacularly. Forcing a suicidal pace that day, he was cooked 2 furlong from home and the usual patient, stalking tactics could be in store in tomorrows 2.50, a class 2 handicap sprint over 6f.
Course specialist Ingleby Arch will be looking to reverse placings with the selection, following his 9 length drubbing last time out over an inadequate 7 furlong, this 6 will be more to his liking.
Selections:
2.50 Imprimis Tagula
3.20 Shadows Lengthen.
Good Luck All
Hollywood_G
Up 7lb for his latest win 2 weeks prior to Christmas, the inevitable step up in class occurs on his beloved Fibresand surface, where 5 others will be hoping a half stone increase stops him in his tracks.
His speed figures achieved when allowed to dictate the pace have been fairly consistent, and I can't envisage anything in the field that will take him on for the lead.
Profits Reality and Trachonitis rate as clear dangers on the figures, with the former preferred due to his prominent racing style.
Although Trachonitis did manage to get his nose in front last time out over the Fibresand, the surface was not riding anywhere near as quick as it has been on that occasion, earning a pace figure of only 43. The average since November is 63, which indicates a significant advantage to horses laying up with the early pace.
Up 10lb for his win on Dec 27, the trainers representative indicated following that win that he would be turned out again quickly under a penalty, this was not the case and could indicate the horse had a setback, or maybe the converse - that connections were confident, and more inclined to wait for a more profitable opportunity.
Although only 6 runners, this could be an interesting race. If Shadows Lengthen is allowed an uncontested lead, he will be difficult to peg back.
Elsewhere on the card, Imprimis Tagula bids to make amends for a poor showing last time out, where a change in tactics backfired spectacularly. Forcing a suicidal pace that day, he was cooked 2 furlong from home and the usual patient, stalking tactics could be in store in tomorrows 2.50, a class 2 handicap sprint over 6f.
Course specialist Ingleby Arch will be looking to reverse placings with the selection, following his 9 length drubbing last time out over an inadequate 7 furlong, this 6 will be more to his liking.
Selections:
2.50 Imprimis Tagula
3.20 Shadows Lengthen.
Good Luck All
Hollywood_G
Sunday, 24 January 2010
Meydan Calling....
This Thursday (28th) sees the start of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, and the opening of Meydan, the new $billion racecourse in Dubai.
Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.
Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/
Tapeta is currently in use at two racetracks in the US, Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Golden Gate Fields in California.
Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.
In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.
6 69.6
7 82.0
8 95.0
9 108.0
9.5 114.5
10 121.2
11 135.0
12 148.0
It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.
Hollywood_G
Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.
Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/
Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.
In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.
Golden Gate fields is a little different, as there is no chute for the races run over a mile, the oval is around 8 furlongs in circumference, and the run-in is a little shorter than at Meydan, however, it gives us some information at which to start.
After some tedious calculations that I wont go into, using some information provided by the guys at http://www.speedfigures.com/ I have come up with the following standard times for the Tapeta surface at Meydan, that can be used as a guide until there have been a significant amount of races to enable more accurate calculations to be performed.
Tapeta Surface:
Distance (fur) Std Time (Secs)
5 56.0
5.5 62.56 69.6
7 82.0
8 95.0
9 108.0
9.5 114.5
10 121.2
11 135.0
12 148.0
It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.
Hollywood_G
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
What is the opposite of Redemption?...
Whatever it is, thats what was achieved by Seek The Fair Land this evening.
Unlike the muddling pace last time out, there seemed no apparent excuses for tonights 4th place showing.
An alarming drift from 11/8 to 5/2 15 minutes prior to the off was not a good sign and the writing was on the wall on the home turn as the pace quickened and Carsons mount was left decidely flat footed.
The pace scenario I envisaged was on the button as Seek The Fair Land stalked a decent clip set by Simple Rhythm and Bravo Echo. Although 16/1 shot Indian Skipper had obviously not read the script as he flew 'Pegasus like' down the outside to pip Bravo Echo right on the bob.
Vintage was disappointing, racing keenly throughout the opening stages and was a spent force in the closing stages.
All in all, not a great outcome for the blog, or perhaps more importantly, my pocket!
I'm of the opinion that the handicapper may now have a grip on Seek The Fair Land, although will reserve full judgement until I have calculated todays speed figures for the Kempton meeting. My gut feeling however, is that the figure will be well below the level of his December 100+ performances.
Hollywood_G
Unlike the muddling pace last time out, there seemed no apparent excuses for tonights 4th place showing.
An alarming drift from 11/8 to 5/2 15 minutes prior to the off was not a good sign and the writing was on the wall on the home turn as the pace quickened and Carsons mount was left decidely flat footed.
The pace scenario I envisaged was on the button as Seek The Fair Land stalked a decent clip set by Simple Rhythm and Bravo Echo. Although 16/1 shot Indian Skipper had obviously not read the script as he flew 'Pegasus like' down the outside to pip Bravo Echo right on the bob.
Vintage was disappointing, racing keenly throughout the opening stages and was a spent force in the closing stages.
All in all, not a great outcome for the blog, or perhaps more importantly, my pocket!
I'm of the opinion that the handicapper may now have a grip on Seek The Fair Land, although will reserve full judgement until I have calculated todays speed figures for the Kempton meeting. My gut feeling however, is that the figure will be well below the level of his December 100+ performances.
Hollywood_G
Fair Land Seeking Redemption.....
Not a fantastic day for the blog on Saturday as Imprimis Tagula was a shade disappointing in the Super 7 race at Lingfield, attempting to force the pace throughout he faded badly in the final furlong to finish 6th.
A perfect split up the rail opened up for Elna Bright and he managed to hold on from the fast finishing Atlantic Story, who is one to follow on the Polytrack this winter.
The Scoop6 was won by 5 lucky punters, of which I was not one! Although the majority of the horses ran satisfactorily, achieving 5 placed finishes from the 6 selections.
I know its very short notice but tonight’s 6.45 Handicap at Kempton is a chance for A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' to make up for a slightly below-par performance in his last race, where he was beaten a short head in a tactical nightmare.
Being drawn in Box 1 could be soon as some to be a negative, but the stats don't back this up and the outside two stalls at Kempton have a decent record. There is not a natural pacesetter in tonight’s race with the majority of the field hold-up performers, but this should enable young William Carson to manoeuvre the gelding into a decent stalking position behind the other likely pacesetters Bravo Echo and Simple Rhythm.
Two interesting horses for the forecast are Vintage, who looked to need the race last time out at Kempton after a 207 day lay-off and Bravo Echo, who ran against a distinct pace bias in his first appearance for new connections after a 3 month break. Both horses should come on for their respective runs, and may play a part in the finish.
Recommendations:
Back Seek The Fair Land to win @ (a slightly alarming drifting) 9/4 with Bet365
Back Vintage EW @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (small Stakes)
Seek The Fair Land / Vintage / Bravo Echo (Reverse Forecasts)
Good Luck all,
Hollywood_G
A perfect split up the rail opened up for Elna Bright and he managed to hold on from the fast finishing Atlantic Story, who is one to follow on the Polytrack this winter.
The Scoop6 was won by 5 lucky punters, of which I was not one! Although the majority of the horses ran satisfactorily, achieving 5 placed finishes from the 6 selections.
I know its very short notice but tonight’s 6.45 Handicap at Kempton is a chance for A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' to make up for a slightly below-par performance in his last race, where he was beaten a short head in a tactical nightmare.
Being drawn in Box 1 could be soon as some to be a negative, but the stats don't back this up and the outside two stalls at Kempton have a decent record. There is not a natural pacesetter in tonight’s race with the majority of the field hold-up performers, but this should enable young William Carson to manoeuvre the gelding into a decent stalking position behind the other likely pacesetters Bravo Echo and Simple Rhythm.
Two interesting horses for the forecast are Vintage, who looked to need the race last time out at Kempton after a 207 day lay-off and Bravo Echo, who ran against a distinct pace bias in his first appearance for new connections after a 3 month break. Both horses should come on for their respective runs, and may play a part in the finish.
Recommendations:
Back Seek The Fair Land to win @ (a slightly alarming drifting) 9/4 with Bet365
Back Vintage EW @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (small Stakes)
Seek The Fair Land / Vintage / Bravo Echo (Reverse Forecasts)
Good Luck all,
Hollywood_G
Saturday, 9 January 2010
Big Freeze puts All-Weather Centre Stage....
Happy New Year all, I have been unable to update the blog over the festive period as I nipped across the pond for a 'vacation' on the arctic East Coast of America.
Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.
However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?
Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.
Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.
Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.
Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.
Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.
There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.
Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.
The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:
Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl
Good Luck all
Hollywood_G
Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.
However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?
Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.
Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.
Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.
Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.
Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.
There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.
Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.
The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:
Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl
Good Luck all
Hollywood_G
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