2000 Guineas winner heads "Straight to Longchamp"....

Before I go on, let me just state that I have nothing against the Cheltenham Festival. I have been on numerous occasions and sincerely love the place. I even stayed for ten races on the Thursday of 2008; the day Master Minded produced THAT performance and Inglis Drever won his third World Hurdle.

The atmosphere on a day such as this years Gold Cup Friday is like no other event I have attended, and is one that every sports fan, whether racing inclined or not, should experience at least once.

National Hunt used to be my bag. I seemed to do well on the betting side, I actually enjoyed going racing in the wintry weather and there was no better sight than watching a top class horse sneaking into contention three of four obstacles out as their rivals tread water and eventually drown before the last.

That’s now changed.

I fell out of 'real' love with National Hunt racing about the time of Kauto Star’s second Gold Cup victory. Perverse I know. Obviously I still keep up with the goings on of the game and I still get excited when I see a high-class performance.

I watched the Hennessey this year with the same enthusiasm as I always have. Impressed with Diamond Harry, I wondered where he might turn up next - then I realised one of the reasons why I fell out of love with the jumping game.

The phrase: "The horse will now head straight to Cheltenham".

Over the last few years, this has become an increasingly annoying trait and I sort of understand why.

The Cheltenham Festival is THE festival. No matter what the connections' history or stature within the game, EVERYONE wants a winner at Cheltenham in March.

I'm not saying this is a bad thing. If I were an owner then I'd be exactly the same. I'd be pushing my trainer to prime my horse for Cheltenham where the money's good and the prestige even better.

But what about the fans that want to see these animals compete, the fans who are being starved of high quality racing and not just because of the weather!

Racing for Change have messed around with tradition and the flat fixture list by switching Champions Day from its spiritual home. But to me, the flat season isn't broken.

There is no 'Cheltenham' of the flat season, the one target for all to hit. There are plenty. We are almost spoiled for choice.

It rolls off the tongue - Guineas, Chester, York, The Derby, Royal Ascot, The Eclipse, Glorious Goodwood, York, The Leger, The Arc, Champions Day, Breeders' Cup.

There's something for everyone in that list with plenty more in between.

I know the stresses and strains of five furlongs at York are in stark contrast to a three mile slog around Prestbury, but horses have always ran - that's what they do is it not?

Some horses are best fresh, I don't argue that fact, but not to the extent that we are hearing the "straight to the festival" quote.

The trends highlight that horses that head straight to the festival without a run in that calendar year have a dismal record - although that may be skewed this year due to the sheer amount of "fresh" horses lining up.

Like I said, I don't blame the trainers or other connections, but in my opinion the powers that be at Racing for Change need to look at the structure of the jumps season to offer more incentives to run horses.

One things for sure - barring injury - you won't hear Henry Cecil stating that Frankel goes "straight to Longchamp" after he waltzes away with the Guineas in May – there’s too many short term targets to hit before thinking of the long term.

Gavin Dobson, December 2010

Twitter: @gav_dobson 

2010 Bloodstock Review & recent 'ringside' action.

The race for the 2010 flat jockey’s title may have gone right to the wire, but there was to be no last minute excitement in the bid to be top UK sire - a contest over long before Doncaster’s season finale.

After surrendering his title to fellow Coolmore stallion Danehill Dancer in 2009, Galileo regained his crown in impressive style amassing total earnings near £5m; almost double that of nearest challenger and another son of Danehill – Juddmonte Farm’s Dansili.

Ballydoyle’s Irish Derby and Irish Champion S. victor Cape Blanco was the top Galileo earner of 2010 with an impressive haul of over £1.3m. Those earnings, when added to his three juvenile victories makes him the third most successful progeny of his sire ever in terms of prize money and the chestnut will bid to help Galileo retain his crown, not to mention improve on his own already impressive record as he races on in 2011.

Another Ballydoyle inmate making a hefty contribution to Galileo’s success was the recently retired Rip Van Winkle, who garnered almost £650k in prize money, but managed only one victory – a last-gasp success over Twice Over in the Juddmonte International at York. Last seen in public when beaten a nose by Godolphin’s Poet’s Voice in the QEII S. at Ascot, Timeform’s highest ever rated son of Galileo now heads to Coolmore’s Irish Stud to stand alongside his sire, at a fee of €20k.

Galileo clearly has plenty of ammunition in his war chest for next season, and it would be no surprise if his most explosive weapon turned out to be Henry Cecil’s unbeaten Dewhurst winner and champion two-year-old Frankel. The much-hyped bay amassed over £266k in his four Juvenile victories and goes into the winter as the clear favourite for both the 2000 Guineas and The Derby. Cecil is not one to be easily carried away, and when he talks of Frankel in the same breath as horses like Wollow and Diesis then people will sit up and take note. However, despite waxing lyrical for some time about the bays ability, Cecil has expressed concerns about his stamina for the Derby trip.

Other Galileo juveniles sitting prominently in the Ante-Post markets for next years Classics include Prix Marcel Boussac heroine Misty for Me, joint favourite for the 1000 Guineas, along with Dewhurst runner-up and Criterium International victor Roderic O’Connor, who sits just behind Frankel in the market for the first two colt’s Classics.

Although Galileo’s nearest challenger Dansili finished a long way adrift in second, the contest may have been closer but for the career-ending gallops injury suffered by Sir Micheal Stoute’s imperious King George VI victor Harbinger. That injury led to his retirement to stud rated the Greatest Racehorse in the World and at the time, hot favourite for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. With prize money in the region of £2m for the winner of Longchamp’s Autumn showcase, a Harbinger victory would have taken the top-sire race right down to the wire.

Proving that he deserves his ‘World Class’ title, Galileo was not only successful on European shores and at the time of writing tops the worldwide sire list of Northern Hemisphere earnings.

Although only seventh in the UK list, Darley’s now French based King’s Best – sire of Epsom Derby and Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe hero Workforce - lies in second place in those worldwide rankings with earnings of £5.5m.

There is no doubt that is an impressive haul, but a closer look reveals that it is almost entirely due to two of his Classic generation, as Japanese bred Eishin Flash amassed £1.2m for his Japanese Derby victory at Tokyo, six days prior to Workforce’s Epsom master class.

Those Derby victories, along with Workforce’s gutsy Longchamp success accounted for almost £4m of King’s Best earnings and although only just adrift in terms of prize-money, his ten black-type victories in 2010 is a long way behind Galileo’s tally of 17 - a notable seven of those coming at the highest level.

With a European record of 36 first-season winners, Darley’s Iffraaj was a clear-cut winner of the freshman sire title, amassing almost £1m from his 70 strong first crop.

His current flag-bearer and sole G1 victor is Richard Fahey’s unbeaten colt Wootton Bassett, who landed two valuable sales races before a pillar-to-post victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere-Grand Criterium at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. He will now be aimed at the 2000 Guineas for which he is currently a top price of 16/1, and his trainer, who rates him as the best he’s ever had, is reportedly confident of a bold show in the Newmarket showpiece.

Ringside Action.

It has been a busy period on the sales circuit of late, with plenty of recession-busting bidding taking place around the World.

One recently retired colt whose first progeny were destined to cause a stir is last years champion and half-brother to Galileo, Sea the Stars. Busy plying a lucrative trade at The Aga Khan’s Gilltown Stud following his authoritative Arc success, Christopher Tsui’s superstar has reportedly covered in the region of 120 mares at a fee of €85k each.

To date, nine mares confirmed in foal to the superstar son of Cape Cross have sold at an average price a little over £450k, with the first of those appearing at the Fasig-Tipton November Breeding sale in Lexington, Kentucky following the Breeders’ Cup meeting. Love to Dance, an impeccably bred daughter of Sadler’s Wells and sister to 2007 Arc winner Dylan Thomas, now holds the accolade of being the first to be sold through a public sales ring after bloodstock agent Ryan Bell went to $1,050m for the ex-Ballydoyle five-year-old on behalf of John Clay’s Kentucky based Alpha Delta stable.

The first to pass through a UK ring was another ex-Ballydoyle Sadler’s Wells mare in the form of Soinlovewithyou. UK based bloodstock agent, and advisor to Lady Bamford, Hugo Lascelles paid 950k gns for the half-sister to Duke of Marmalade at the Tattersall’s December Mares sale. Apparently purchased on behalf of owner-breeders in the US, Lascelles indicated that the foal might return to a UK sale in the future.

The two recent Tattersalls December sales included 34 horses from the dispersal of Lady Tavistock’s Woburn based Bloomsbury Stud, which is to cease operation after 45 years.

First, a daughter of Highest Honor out of the 1980 Queen Mary S. winner Pushy, realised the highest price when sold to agent Charlie Gordon Watson for 1.1m gns. Bought on behalf of an undisclosed ‘big new investor’ in British bloodstock, the 12-year-old dam of Michael Stoute’s Ascot specialist Perfect Stride is confirmed in foal to Cape Cross.


Topping the previous week’s foal’s sale at 320k gns was another from the Bloomsbury dispersal - a March 12 colt by the ill-fated Singspiel out of the above mare First. Following a rare Coolmore - Darley duel, it was Pat Shanahan and Michael (M.V.) Magnier who came out on top for the Tipperary heavyweights.

Sirecam video of Singspiel/First colt

Bloodstock agent David Redvers signed for the top lot at the December mares sale with a bid of 1.3m gns for Diary - a daughter of Green Desert and the dam of 2009 Prix de l’Abbaye winner Total Gallery. Confirmed in foal to Galileo, the mare was purchased on behalf of Qatar Royal, Sheikh Fahad Al Thani.

The first foals of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Raven’s Pass have been well received, with particular success across the Atlantic at the Keeneland November sale. Averaging just over £100k from 15 sales, the highest price paid is currently $335k for a March 14th colt out of Japanese mare Eishin Bridle who was part of the dispersal of Jerry Bailey and Lance Robinson’s Gulf Coast Farms. A major player near the top of the U.S. breeding and sales industries in recent years, Gulf Coast are perhaps best known as the breeder of champion two-year-old and Preakness S. winner Lookin At Lucky, who will now stand at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Kentucky for a fee of $35k in 2011.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and bloodstock advisor John Ferguson showed support for their Darley stallion when going to 170k gns each for two colts at Tattersalls December. The second of the colts purchased is out of Italian Oaks winning mare Zanzibar and as such is a half-brother to American Stakes performer and ex-Michael Bell inmate Spice Route.

The top first-season sire at Keeneland November was four-time G1 winner Henrythenavigator who stands for $65k alongside Giant’s Causeway and Lookin At Lucky at Coolmore America. With an average of $208k from five lots, a March 17th foal out of American G1 winning mare Versailles Treaty was his top-priced colt fetching $450k.

Duke of Marmalade, another of Coolmore’s new multiple G1 winning Stallions has also been well received with a current average sale price of £57k from 21 sold lots. Timmy Hyde’s Camas Park Stud paid a high of €215k at Goffs November for a February 26th colt and fourth produce of Bowstring, a group placed ex-Juddmonte daughter of Sadler’s Wells.

Gavin Dobson, December 2010

Twitter: @gav_dobson

Folly to dismiss European 'also-rans' across the Pond...

Even by his own very high standards, the 2010 season has been a roaring success for Prince Khalid Abdullah and his Juddmonte Farms operation.

At the time of writing, the famous Green and Pink colours have been carried to success at the highest level in eleven G1 contests in Europe, not to mention four at the highest level in the US.

Although the G1 winners began as early as May when Special Duty landed Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas, June 5^th was a red-letter day for the operation as subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hero Workforce landed the G1 Epsom Derby in record-breaking fashion.

That was not the end of the big-race honours for the Saudi Prince that day as just four hours later his ex-French trained mare Proviso battled to victory in the Just A Game S. at Belmont Park to land the second of her four GI victories since transferring to the American barn of Hall of Fame trainer William Mott. 

Crossing the water from Europe for a new life in the US is not a new occurrence for racehorses.

Reports suggest that Bulle Rock, a direct descendant of the Darley Arabian left the UK for Virginia as early as 1730 and around the time of the American Revolution, perhaps the most significant British imports stepped foot on American soil in the form of Messenger and Diomed.

The latter - winner of the inaugural Epsom Derby in 1780 - is plausibly the most important to ever make the long journey West as in 1805 he sired what many believe to be the greatest of America’s Foundation sires, Sir Archy.

More recently however, horses departing European shores for a new life in America have done so not to forge a career in the breeding shed but to aim for prizes seemingly out of reach in their homeland. 

Despite various campaigns in support of a switch to synthetic surfaces in order to reduce the number of serious injuries, the vast majority of racing in the US still takes place on a traditional dirt surface. Races on turf play second fiddle, and breeding patterns ultimately follow suit with horses in America continuing to be bred for dirt suiting speed over turf suiting stamina.

Those bred for a career on dirt rarely travel beyond 10 furlongs (1¼ miles), with only a handful of high-quality dirt races over further. The highest profile example being the Belmont S. - third leg of the American Triple Crown - known colloquially as the ‘test of the champion’ due to its seemingly gruelling distance of 12 furlongs (1½ miles)).

This is obviously not the case in Europe, where, although there are a handful of courses with synthetic surfaces, the predominant racing surface is turf and races are run over much further.

Breeding practices in the World of turf racing differ significantly because of this with horses much more likely to be bred with longer distances in mind.

This approach gives them the upper hand when pitched into turf contests against their US counterparts and the superiority of European runners in turf races at the Breeders’ Cup backs up this hypothesis.

European invaders have recorded 43 wins at the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984 with 34 of those wins coming on the grass.

However, it may be worth noting that it is not only the high-class Euro raiding party at the Breeders’ Cup that taste success at the highest level on the American turf.

The aforementioned Proviso – as a winner of two G3 contests in France - is not the typical European to Stateside expatriate. More often than not, those finding success at the highest level after a Transatlantic voyage, boarded the plane carrying with them moderate form at best from their native land. 

Before leaving his County Kildare base for a new life in America, David Hanley co-bred and trained a Pivotal filly by the name of Golden Apples.

Successful in one of her four starts in Ireland, Golden Apples’ best form came when third in the 2001 renewal of the G2 Pretty Polly S. at The Curragh. Sold soon after to infamous owner Gary Tanaka, she was transferred into the care of California based trainer Ben Cecil and won the 2001 G1 Del Mar Oaks on her American debut.

Placed in two further G1 events that year, the filly was named the 2002 Female Grass Runner of the Year following victories in the GI Beverley D. S. at Arlington, the GI Yellow Ribbon S. at Santa Anita Park and her fourth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf back in Chicago.

She was retired to broodmare duties in 2003 following a 1/2-length defeat in the GI John C. Mabee Handicap at Del Mar, with career earnings totalling of over $1.6million.

Similarly, the ill-fated Tuscan Evening - herself a leading contender for the same Eclipse Award as Golden Apples before her untimely death in August of this year - was another to achieve dramatic improvement following a drastic change in scenery.

G2 and G3 placed in Ireland, the bargain 4,500guineas weanling was arguably unlucky not to spring a 66/1 shock in the G1 2008 Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh, but the daughter of Oasis Dream did not manage a win in eleven starts for trainer John Joseph Murphy and left for California at the end of her three-year-old campaign.

Successful on her second start in America, the bay landed eight further victories and over $1.1million in prize-money for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. At the time of her premature passing, she was unbeaten in six stakes contests - a run that concluded with victory in the GI Gamely S. at Hollywood Park in May.

In late November 2009, Tuscan Evening finished second, beaten 1¾-lengths in the GI Matriarch S. at Hollywood Park. The winner that day was Ventura, another Juddmonte Farms UK export with a mediocre level of form in Britain - though she did land a Kempton Listed contest on her final start in the UK for Amanda Perrett.

Transferred into the care of the late, great Bobby Frankel following that success, the daughter of the 2000 GI Arlington Million winner Chester House - himself another Juddmonte UK to US shipper, though one with a slightly higher level of form being the winner of the 1999 Brigadier Gerard S. at Sandown – won a G2 at Keeneland on her US debut.

Two starts later Ventura landed the spoils in Belmont’s GI Just A Game S. and was an admirable second on a yielding surface in the GI Woodbine Mile. The mare bounced back to form in style with an impressive four-length victory in that years renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf on the Santa Anita Pro-Ride before following up in the GI Santa Monica Handicap over the same course & distance.

In March 2009 she was beaten only a nose by American turf superstar - and last years Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up - Gio Ponti in the Frank E Kilroe Mile on the Santa Anita turf but then made amends for the defeat in the Woodbine Mile a year prior when returning to the Canadian track following a five month lay-off to land the odds in September.

She failed to defend her crown in the Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita when a 1¼-length second to nemesis Informed Decision but ended her career on a high with the facile victory over Tuscan Evening, taking her earnings over $2.5million.

With this years Breeders’ Cup meeting at Churchill Downs on the horizon, it may pay dividends not to hastily discount any familiar names who did not set the World alight on European soil - and rest assured, even if the ex-Euro ‘also-rans’ do not land the spoils at the US World Championships in November, they will not be taking part in any future GIs merely to give their new connections a day in the American sun.

© Gavin Dobson, October 2010.

Please visit my new Website...

Hi,

Due to a multitude of commitments, I am struggling to keep atop of this blogging lark - as can be seen from my lack of posts in the last few months!

However, I have recently uploaded a new website that aims to showcase my editorial skills a little more than my speed figure skills - now that I am officially a Freelance Journalist!

Please head over to http://www.gdobson.co.uk to check out the site and feel free to let me know what you think.

One day I hope to resurrect this blog as my speed figures seem to be working better than ever lately, when I get the time to use them that is!

Many Thanks
Hollywood_G

Forcing the argument....

The dust has now settled on an amazing Classic weekend, not just for Ryan Moore, but for horse racing fans in general.
The amazing feats of last years hero Sea The Stars seem to have propelled the sport more into the mainstream, a fact highlighted by the coverage of Saturdays big race on all the news channels I tuned into on Saturday evening, along with the Sunday rags yesterday morning.

Who could blame them? The performance put up by Workforce on the Downs on Saturday was not something I, nor even Sir Michael Stoute was expecting. Following last years above average crop of sophomore's, the race this year (after the somewhat 'unfortunate' news about St. Nic) seemed devoid of a superstar, how wrong I was!

I was in attendance at York when Workforce was all the hype for the Dante in May. I didn't fancy him that day, preferring to throw my cash at Michael Bell's more battle-hardened Co-ordinated Cut instead. I was however, impressed with his performance in finishing runner-up, as he spent much of the final four furlongs head-cocked and tongue lolling, before running on at the finish. We all now know the events that transpired during the Dante and in retrospect it was a fantastic achievement finishing so close to Cape Blanco, a serious horse in his own right.

The vibes emanating from the yard leading upto the Derby could not have been stronger, these whispers, coupled with the fact that SMS is not one for entering horses just for an enjoyable day out pointed to a big run from Workforce on only his third career start - he didn't disappoint!

As I've explained previously, I'm a time man. Obviously, my handicapping methods incorporate more than a physical comparison of final times, however, the biggest piece in my proverbial puzzle are the digits on the stopwatch as the winner passes the post. You can now begin to imagine how I felt when I saw 2:31.33 flash before my eyes following Saturday's classic.

Last night, having managed to ease myself from the ceiling, I sat down to evaluate the race, along with Fridays Oaks and the multitude of other meetings over the weekend.

After a little deliberation, I have awarded Workforce a speed figure of 130. Which, on my scale is an amazing figure for a 3yo to achieve on only his third career start. To add a little perspective, Fame and Glory has been awarded a 125 for his impressive Coronation Cup victory, equating to a 3.75 length victory for Workforce in a match race (although we all know things aren't that simplistic!).

The figure of 130 equals Sea The Stars' Eclipse win last July, which highlights the strength of performance from the good-looking son of Kings Best.

Given the way that the horse won, along with the improvement to come, there is no way we have seen the best of this colt.

Suddenly 2010's below average division of 3 year-olds have a way above average classmate.

Incidentally, Friday's fillies classic won by Snow Fairy recorded a disappointing figure of 110, some way short of the Class Par. It seems this years classic fillies also seem a below average crop, it remains to be seen whether there is a Workforce-esque performance lurking, I certainly hope so.

Hollywood_G

New addition....

I have updated the blog to include the top three Speed Figure performances from April.
These are horses who have recorded excellent speed figures in winning their respective races and should be followed when next appearing. (Note: Harbinger has since won the Group.3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester in taking fashion).


Check it out by clicking the 'April's Heavy Hitters' Tab to your right....


I will hopefully add a review of the recent racing shenanigans over the next few days, including my take on the current (murky) Derby picture.


Hollywood_G

Awzaan to demolish the Abbey...

Stamina: physical or moral strength to resist or withstand illness, fatigue, or hardship; endurance.


Every year around the first weekend in May, the issue of stamina is scrutinised in unbelievable depth. 


On the eve of the first British Classic of 2009, anyone with a knowledge of the 'Dosage' system could have been forgiven for having Sea The Stars in the sprinter/miler category, given his 'Dosage Index' of 3.0 - a theory convincingly disproved as the superstar son of Cape Cross demolished the opposition in not only the guineas, but also both the Derby and the Arc De-Triomphe over 12 furlongs. 
(For more information on the intriguing dosage system, visit www.chef-de-race.com)


Again, stamina is the main unknown surrounding todays 2,000 guineas over Newmarket's undulating Rowley Mile. 


However, unlike the question marks surrounding Sea The Stars' perceived lack of staying power last year, this years inquiry surrounds the heavy favourite having too much stamina influence for a fast-ground Guineas trip.


There is no denying that the unbeaten St. Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu - Leaping Water) was mightily impressive in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last back-end, and the turn of foot produced on Town Moor that day had many of those in attendance salivating. 


However, as impressive as that performance looked, the time of the race was distinctly average, and a speed figure of 109 is short of the usual standard. Yes the going was fairly testing, but that would have played to his strengths, whereas the majority of horses in behind would have preferred a firmer surface.


A further negative for the O'Brien colt is the fact that only one horse has ever completed the Racing Post Trophy, 2000 guineas double - High Top in 1971/1972.


Typically thought of as more of a stamina influence, (as proven with the careers of the likes of Motivator, Hurricane Run, Authorised and Fame & Glory) his sire, the brilliant Montjeu has had only one runner in the 2000 guineas since standing in Coolmore's breeding shed (Solent, who finished 16th in the 2005 renewal, also finished 16th in a 2m Pontefract handicap two weeks ago) there must be a question that the mile trip on faster ground than ideal will be too sharp for the Irish raider.


And, as is usually the case, this season, many of O'Briens string have needed their first outing, couple this with the above statistics and the price of Evens doesn't look so appealing.


Rumours passing over the Irish sea have been of a 'wonderhorse', tearing apart the Ballydoyle gallops, and I do not doubt that Aidan O'Brien knows the horse a little better than I - if the vibes about him are correct, then we could have the next superstar on our hands. For the sport, that would be fantastic, although at the price I will reserve judgement until I have seen it on the course, rather than heard it in the wind.


Runner-up behind St. Nick in the Racing Post Trophy was John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality - Cara Fantasy) who returned with a bang to slaughter the Craven field over course and distance, Apr 15. 


Again, a speed figure of 107+ was not Group 1 class, although you could not fail to be impressed with the turn-of-foot shown, and he was heavily eased at the finish. He is a big rangy horse, and he took a little time to hit top-gear in the Craven, although connections feel that the end-to-end gallop in the guineas will suit him better - he has a live chance, but again may be seen in better light over middle distances, although Dunlop has already stated that due to his make-up, he is not a Derby horse.


Middleham trainer Mark Johnston, trainer of 1994 winner Mister Baileys - who crossed the line in a still standing record of 95.08seconds - saddles two in this years race.


Greyfriarschorista, runner-up in the 7f Listed Lingfield Spring Cup, has not shown the requisite level of form to be competitive at this level, and is most definitely the stables second-string.


The same cannot be said about unbeaten Awzaan (Alhaarth - Nufoos). Winner of the Group.2 Mill Reef, and Group.1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f (speed figure 114) when last seen in public, this good looking sort has also been the subject of rave gallop reviews, none more so than when impressive on a Newmarket racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting.


As stated in my previous blog, Johnston and jockey Richard Hills have no doubts about his ability to stay the mile, with his trainer stating recently that it will probably turn out to be his optimum. Given that he is likely to get his preferred ground conditions @ odds of 10/1 he must be high on the shortlist.


The second highest juvenile speed figure of last year (behind Arcano's July Stakes win) was the 119 achieved by Beethoven in the Dewhurst on Champions Day at HQ. 
Representing that form today are runner-up Fencing Master (118) third-placed Xtension (117) fifth placed Buzzword (113) and sixth placed Dick Turpin (108). 


Of the principals, Fencing Master (Oratorio - Moonlight Dance) was having only his second racecourse appearance in the Dewhurst and is open to any amount of improvement, while Clive Cox has been raving about the chance of Xtension (Xaar - Great Joy) in the build-up to today's race.


Richard Hannons Dick Turpin (Arakan - Merrily) returned to take this years renewal of the Group. 2 Greenham over Newburys 7f, achieving a figure of 109 when upsetting stable-mate and apparent apple of his trainers eye Canford Cliffs (Tagula - Mrs Marsh) who after hanging markedly, did not seem to stay the 7f trip - he cannot be relied upon to get home today.


However, Dick Turpin was not stopping at the end of the race, and although breeding suggests otherwise, should certainly stay the mile. At double the price of his Coventry winning stablemate, he could be worth an each-way tickle.


Another who has been the subject of rave reviews over the winter months is the John Best trained Inler (Red Ransom - Wedding Gift). Owner Harry Findlay has now sold a portion of the once-raced colt to the Sangster family, who after viewing the horse gallop, made an offer too good for Findlay to refuse. Lack of experience against some of the market principals may catch him out today, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.


With question marks over the majority of the market leaders, the race could be open to a big-priced outsider. The best chance of which may lie with experienced Group.1 Gran Criterium winner Hearts of Fire (Firebreak - Alexander Ballet). Pat Eddery's charge triumphed over a soft-ground mile at the San Siro, in which he beat subsequent Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York by a neck, he is appealing at around the 40/1 mark.


Hollywoods_G's Verdict and final Top-five.


Although St. Nicholas Abbey has many questions to answer, part of me hopes he comes up with the goods and is the superstar that he is claimed to be. 
Although after Sea The Stars amazing campaign last year, it could be too much to ask for another wonderhorse. I have a feeling that a few people may be guilty of getting a little carried away and I expect him to prove himself over further later in the season.


On firmer ground I expect Elusive Pimpernel to over-turn the four lengths that SNA beat him in the Racing Post Trophy, if he finds his top-gear leaving the dip, he will not be far behind.


One horse who he wouldn't want to let get first run on him is the very pacy Awzaan. If the Maktoum representative does get his head in front entering the closing stages he will be hard to pass, a trait apparent with the majority of Mark Johnston trained horses - at 10/1 he will be carrying my cash.


1 - Awzaan
2 - Elusive Pimpernel
3 - Fencing Master
4 - Hearts of Fire
5 - Xtension


Good Luck
Hollywood_G

Good Thursday - Awesome Awzaan....

Due to my new and exciting position at the ThoroughbredDailyNews (www.thetdn.com) I was lucky enough  to be invited to a press morning at Mark Johnston's training establishment in Middleham, the day before Good Friday.

The main attraction {no pun intended} of the visit was a glimpse of 2000 Guineas hope 'Awzaan', who looked stunning on the 6 furlong all-weather gallop under Richard Hills, who had flown in especially to work the Alhaarth colt.

Awzaan (striped-cap) worked with lead horse Cry of Freedom and Johnston explained that it would not be the norm to work a 3-year old with an older horse, such is the maturity shown by last years Gr.2 Mill Reef and Gr.1 Middle Park Stakes winner.

Question marks over the bays ability to stay the guineas mile were firmly refuted by both Johnston and Hills, and 10/1 could prove to be a big price for the first classic of the season on May 1.

Hollywood_G

Dubai World Cup Night Picks...

The weather in Dubai is expected to be 100+ degrees today, that will be a shock to the European shippers, a number of which have been reported as sweating up quite badly in their morning work.

After investing heavily at both 14/1 and 10/1, I will be shouting from any rooftops I can find if Kieren Fallon can steer Gitano Hernando to glory in the big one.
Marco Botti apparently has him right where he wants him, he is accustomed to travelling around the globe after shipping out to a [not quite as scorching] California in October and surprising a quality field in Santa Anitas Goodwood Stakes.

I'm convinced he'll go close today, and the bookies obviously agree as he is now trading around 9/2 favourite after pulling a perfect Box.2 in the draw.

The big danger is Japanese raider, Red Desire. The Manhattan Cafe filly produced a blistering turn of foot when taking the Third Round of the Maktoum Challenge and the obvious race for her after that scintillating win is the World Cup itself over C&D. Morning work-watchers out in Meydan have been very impressed with her look and behaviour this week and she rates a big danger to the selection, with super-cool Soumillon getting the leg up.

The travelling Japanese media could have a fantastic night as multiple Group 1 winning filly Buena Vista [not to be confused with recent Pertemps Hurdle winner of the same name] has a huge chance in the Sheema Classic over 1 1/2 miles on the Meydan turf. Buena Vista dished up a beating to World Cup hope Red Desire twice early in 2009 before finishing a nose second [subsequently placed third] to her old foe in the Group 1 'Shuka Sho' at Kyoto in October. She has since won the Group 2 Kyoto Kinen in fine style and can be competitive in this field.

Dubai World Cup night selections:
Race 1 - War Artist / California Flag
Race 2 - Cat Junior / Desert Party
Race 3 - Musir
Race 4 - Rocket Man / Kinsale King
Race 5 - Presvis
Race 6 - Buena Vista / Presious Passion
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando / Red Desire

Good Luck All
Hollywood_G

Weatherman's Reverse Forecast.....

I have just returned from an enthralling day at Cheltenham, I drafted a few words on the train on the way home, as emotions ran high! I have not sat down and studied the video of the race yet, so I may be factually incorrect on a few things, but I thought it better to post my thoughts in their raw format....

PS - Although better over 6, Jaconet should have too much early pace in tomorrows 5f Listed Stakes at Lingfield [4.45]. She is far superior from a speed figure perspective, has a good draw in Box.3 and could be value around the 2/1 mark.

And so, my thoughts on the Gold Cup....

Throughout the bleak mid-winter, throughout the snow, the ice and the slips, trips and falls, National Hunt fans have had the thought of the Cheltenham Gold Cup ‘Decider’ [as it has been billed in the racing tabloids] to keep them warm.

The third round of the Heavyweight Bout between Kauto Star and his stable mate Denman was to take place over 26 undulating furlongs deep in the Cotswolds.

Of course there were other runners in the 3.20pm showpiece, but officially they were no match for the two Paul Nicholls inmates, they were there to make up the numbers, to give the owners a nice day out, weren’t they?

Happen somebody should have told Imperial Commander and Paddy Brennan.

I was as firmly in the Kauto Star camp as it was possible to stand.

I had donned a Kauto themed scarf, Kauto themed badge and bright purple pullover, and I wasn’t the only one.

The majority of shades in bloom on course were those of Clive Smith, the quiet, unassuming owner of Kauto Star.

Since Boxing Day and his fourth King George romp, I could not see him beaten.

I, like many others, had expected Denman to win the Aon chase without breaking sweat. His worrying performance there only increased my confidence in Kauto retaining his title.

However, doubts entered my mind prior to the first race.

Rain had been forecast to arrive in the West in the afternoon, but not until around 4pm, a good time after the final bell had rung in the Gold Cup, it appeared even 500/1 shot Cerium would have jumped the last before the heavens opened.

The forecast rain arrived and I was soaked to the skin before 1.15, slightly ahead of schedule. I was worried that it was levelling the Gold Cup playing field.

I talked myself around; Kauto Star had long since proved his stamina and guts when the mud was flying hadn’t he? He would stay a strongly run race, getting his toe in, wouldn’t he? The horse who hadn’t the stamina for a 3m2 slogfest was Imperial Commander; he wouldn’t stay a Gold Cup trip in the Horsebox, would he?

Someone obviously agreed as the 5/6 available on Kauto in the morning had disappeared and 8/11 was the best price in the village.

Although Denman had shortened to around 4/1, the heavy hitters were ploughing into the champ and there was more 4/6 than 8/11 around as the proverbial bell rang to set the horses on their way.

Lord Oaksy’s Carruthers was expected to make the running, but Denman and McCoy surely had to force the pace and attempt to grind out the win in the style of his Round 1 knockout in 2008, forcing Kauto out of his comfort zone and inducing a fencing error or three. Because everyone knows Denman stays longer than the Mother-in-Law, he’ll win a Grand National one day and if Harry Findlay had his way, it would have been last years!

That brutal pace did not ensue and McCoy was content to sit Denman just off the shoulder of Carruthers in 2^nd place, with Kauto seemingly enjoying himself mid pack, stag-like at the fences - so far so good.

Disaster struck at fence eight.

As in all classic movies, there is always a ‘Will he? Won’t he?’ moment during the film. Ever the film star, Kauto had previously saved his customary ‘surprise’ till much later in the feature - usually the final fence - causing widespread popcorn spilling, heart-in-mouth panic for viewers.

However, this year’s twist occurred at a much earlier point, he ploughed through the fence and Ruby worked a miracle to stay in the saddle. Had the rain softened ground played a part in the error? Kautos jumping had seemingly improved recently and he hadn’t touched a twig at Kempton.

Whatever the reason for this latest misdemeanour, he had slipped back through the field, losing around 5 lengths in that split second, and the writing was on the wall.

And still the pace was steady.

Kauto regained his position and he appeared to be travelling well, although not as well as his old foe and stable neighbour who took up the running on the 2^nd circuit and it looked as though the memories of February’s horror show in the Aon had been well and truly forgotten.

Sensing his title slipping away, Ruby had the persuader drawn on Kauto as the field started to string out down the back stretch. Like a true champion he responded, but it was never truly convincing and Ruby was hard at work when a sickening fall ended his chance at the fourth last.

I immediately feared the worst and a cry from behind me of ‘He’s f***ing Dead’ did not help my emotions at that moment.  I had envisaged telling the tale of ‘I was there when Kauto Star won his 3^rd Gold Cup’ and I could not bear to utter the words ‘I was there when Kauto Star met his demise’.

The following few seconds appeared eon like but finally the floored champion picked himself up and off the rain sodden canvas and was brought under restraint by his none the worse jockey.

Meanwhile at the top of the hill, McCoy had finally decided to up the ante and attempted to kick on, all the while Paddy Brennan sat motionless alongside him on Imperial Commander.

As McCoy attempted to bring on the pain, it became apparent that Brennan was deflecting the blows on the apparently stamina lacking challenger and he surged to the front with two to jump and careered away to record a 7 length win over a tired Denman, with a further 23 lengths back to Grand National hero Mon Mome in 3^rd.

Understandably, Nigel Twiston-Davies was his usual understated self in the minutes following  his first Cheltenham Gold Cup victory, poking fun at the ‘hacks’ who were  of the opinion that he wouldn’t stay the trip, and sarcastically proclaiming that he would be aimed at next years Ryanair Chase.

With a little luck, next years race may well be round 4 of the Denman / Kauto battle, and there may even be more pretenders to the throne now that the seemingly untouchables have been usurped by a member of the supporting cast.

I hold my hands up, I got it wrong today, and I gracefully applauded the winner back into the paddock along with a few hundred others.

I wonder how many of those applauding were, like me, wondering what could have been, had the Met Office forecast been a little more accurate.

Hollywood_G 

10/1 Hernando still the answer to $10million question...

The polytrack was riding on the fast side at Lingfield on Saturday, but that should not take away from a superb performance by Gitano Hernando in the 10f Winter Derby Trial, or Dubai World Cup trial in the case of Marco Botti's colt.

Switched off toward the back of the pack by Kieren Fallon, he made a race-ending move entering the straight and the race was over before it had really began.

Although he was expected to win, even at 90% full fitness, anybody seeing the race could not fail to be impressed with the way the horse quickened. The fact that he won very cosily with his ears pricked in a very very quick time only heightens my enthusiasm for his trip to Dubai at the end of March.

I mentioned in Saturdays blog that the figure of 119 for his win at Wolverhampton was the highest speed rating I had given a horse on a synthetic surface - scratch that!

The fast improving son of Hernando earned a figure of 122 on Saturday, by far the highest figure of this All-Weather season. If he was only 90% fit as Botti claimed, I for one cannot wait to see this horse racing at 100%, and at a best priced 10/1 with most firms, I have gone in again, as that represents real value.

It is worth noting that although the Tapeta surface at Meydan seems to provide no bias to turf or synthetic specialists, of the 44 races run on the surface this carnival, there had been 65 All-Weather race wins from 120 starts (54%) between the winning horses, as opposed to only 59 Turf wins from 227 starts (26%) and 22 wins from 95 starts on a Dirt surface (23%).

This highlights that horses with proven All-Weather form hold a slight edge over other horses, something which is obviously in Gitano Hernandos favour (4 from 4 on synthetics).

The same cannot be said for some of the other names at the head of the market. French raider and last years Prince of Wales stakes winner, Vision D'etat has no 'off-turf' experience, Breeders Cup Classic runner-up Gio Ponti, has 1 win and 1 place to his name from 3 pro-ride starts. This may be slightly insignificant however, as Pro-Ride is the synthetic surface that is most similar to running on turf, as shown by the number of European turf horses winning in the two previous Breeders Cups held on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Of the other horses towards the head of the market, Japanese superstar Espoir City has only Dirt experience to his name. Although that is top class Group 1 form, can he be relied upon to transfer that form to the synthetics?

Henry Cecils raider Twice Over has been the subject of strong praise for his recent workouts prior to heading out to Dubai. His Breeders Cup Classic placing behind Gio Ponti, along with his Champion Stakes win is certainly some of the strongest form on offer, however, he too has had only the 1 try over a 'turf-like' synthethic and was also the subject of rave reviews from gallops watchers throughout last season, subsequently disappointing at the highest level on a number of occasions.

Last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao, as he always seems to be, may be the forgotten horse in the race. The Brazilian bred 7 year old proved his liking for the Tapeta surface when successful in Round 1 of this years Maktoum Challenge and has proved himself a Group 1 horse in the past, most notably when pipping Presvis a head in the Singapore Airlines International in May of last year. Lightly raced since then, connections have had the World Cup in mind for some time and this adaptable horse is sure to be cherry ripe for the occasion.

Unless something creeps out of the woodwork from across the pond (rumours are rife that John Shireffs Breeders Cup Ladies Classic heroine Life is Sweet may be joining the party in Dubai, although again all of her wins have come on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride) then Gitano Hernando must have a huge chance of scooping the pot.

Recommendation:
Gitano Hernando to win Dubai World Cup @ 10/1

Gitano robbery on route to World Cup Glory...

Unfortunately there haven been no blog updates for a while for a number of reasons - the dayjob and wedding planning being the two main culprits, along with a part-time diploma.

Something had to give - and m'lady ensured it was not the Wedding that was relegated to the backburner!

In any case, the all-weather racing has been pretty much dour stuff lately, with a number of Hollywood A-Listers turned over in recent weeks. We have had some marginal successes however, none more so than Godolphin's Global City continuing his upward curve out in Dubai, where there have been some very useful performances from British trained horses.
Most notably, from a speed figure perspective - Jeremy Noseda's Leahurst, who is well worth keeping an eye on out there in the last few Carnival meetings.

Tomorrows racing at Lingfield is much better fare, with my big fancy for the $10million Dubai World Cup having his prep-race in the 10f Winter Derby trial.

Gitano Hernando is very good value at 14/1 for the March 27th 10f feature, given his fantastic record on all-weather surfaces, none more so than when breaking the Wolverhampton course record last September, earning a huge figure of 119 - the highest I have ever given any horse on a synthetic surface.

Shipping out to America did not hold any fears a few weeks later as he produced a massive 18/1 shock when beating a number of fancied runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Owners Team Valor then had the option of running over the same course and distance in the Breeders Cup classic in November, but decided against it as they felt it would come too soon for the young colt.

The Dubai showpiece is no mean afterthought, especially seeing that regular jockey Kieren Fallon has given up his ride on Luca Cumanis Presvis, who was being aimed at the World Cup also.
That is a tip in itself, as Kieren is as good a judge of a racehorse as anybody and has flown back to England from Dubai for this weekends racing. I would be surprised if the main reason for this wasn't the ride on Marco Bottis fast improving son of Hernando, a horse Kieren clearly has a lot of time for.

He won't be 100% wound up for tomorrows race, as Botti has always stated the main aim is the World Cup itself. However, I will still be very surprised if he does not run out quite an easy winner, and if that does happen, the 14/1 currently on offer will be long gone.

The race prior to the Winter Derby trial is another Class 1 affair, this time over the one turn 6 furlong course.
Flying filly, and course specalist Jaconet will surely take all of the beating over her favoured course and distance. She is definitely one of the fastest horses out of the gate in the UK, and although she won't be allowed an uncontested lead with Bel Cantor drawn in Box 1 I still think she'll blast away and put them all to the sword from a difficult draw in 7. She is a proven Class 1 performer, and Arganil along with a number of others have questions to answer after some below par performances recently.

An interesting runner in the race is Jim Bests Mullionmileanhour, who has not been seen in public since a 3rd place finish in the 2008 Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. A horse Best has always had high hopes for he could be the main danger to the selection, although it will be some performance after a 620 day lay-off.

Recommendations:
Back Jaconet @ 2/1 +
Back Jaconet / Gitano Hernando double if Jaconet is 2/1+
Back Gitano Hernando to win the Dubai World Cup prior to tomorrows race (14/1 @ VCBet and Betfred)

Good Luck all
Hollywood_G

The Dust Settles in the Desert...

The first meeting, and the first 10% of the Dubai Carnival is over.

The opening meeting of the $2billion dollar Meydan course was no let-down and produced some excellent equine performances.

All reports of the new Tapeta surface were positive, and the track seemed to ride fairly evenly throughout the night, with winners coming from various pace angles and box positions 13, 1, 5, 11, 7, 11, 5.
If anything, the course seemed to suit those stalking or coming from off the pace, although a definite conclusion cannot be made after only one meeting.

Performances worthy of a second look include the Jeremy Noseda trained Leahurst's (11/8) win in the last race on the card, a 90-105 handicap over 7f. Stalking the pace, he was quickly pushed to the front under Ryan Moore and put the race to bed entering the straight to win going away.

However, perhaps the most impressive win of the night came from the Luca Cumani trained Drunken Sailor (5/1) who was value for more than his 2 1/4 length win over the ex-Cumani inmate Monte Alto. Given a great stalking ride from Kieren Fallon, the big gelding stormed to the front at the top of the straight and is definitely one to keep on the right side of during the carnival. He seemed to enjoy the Tapeta, and as he goes well on the Turf he has plenty of options.

Mike De Kock started the 2010 Carnival as though he meant business with two quick-fire winners courtesy of Raihana (11/4) and Lizards Desire (9/4), both ridden by uber-cool Frenchman Christophe Soumillon and both equally impressive. Lizards Desire got a perfect split on the rail, but he was always holding the challengers at the finish, lead by stablemate King Of Rome.

The first leg of the Maktoum Challenge (often seen as a trial for the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night, but has also been used as a stepping stone to the World Cup itself) went to last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao (12/1). Sitting just off the pace, the Pascal Bary trained Brazilian wore down the pace setting favourite-Godolphins Midshipman-in the final furlong, and held off the fast finishing Forgotten Voice (Noseda/Moore) for a 1/2 length victory. He will now be aimed at the World Cup in a bid to go one better than last year. Kieren Fallon partnered the multiple winning Saudi Arabian based Consul General. Unfancied in the market, the 25/1 shot looked a likely winner entering the straight, however a 3 month lay-off seemed to take its toll in the closing stages and he finished a tired 3rd, he will strip fitter for this run next time out and is worth a second look.

Elsewhere on the card, Godolphin registered a sole opening night win despite having short priced favourites in 4 of the 7 races. Whispering Gallery (6/4) dictated from the gate to record a comfortable victory in the 10f handicap, with the ultra reliable Halicarnussus holding on for 2nd.

Ted Durcan cajoled John Bests Sir Gerry (25/1) along at the back of the field in the only sprint on the card (6f). As the field entered the straight he quickly gathered momentum and flew down the outside in the closing stages to get up by 1/2 length. He could have been 'well-in' on his handicap debut.

All-in-all a fantastic opening night at a fantastic new venue and although the Dubai economy may well be feeling the pinch, the Carnival seems as though it will be as extravagant and as glamorous as ever this year. The next 90% should be well worth keeping an eye on.

Hollywood_G

Note:
Shadows Lengthen landed the six-timer at Southwell on Tuesday in grand style. A starting price of 11/4 was terrific value and he could go in again if his adept trainer can find him another opportunity.
A wide draw may have cost Imprimis Tagula in the 6 furlong sprint and he could do no more than fill the runner-up berth behind his better drawn rival Tourist. He could be worth chancing if he turns out again in the 'Super 7' qualifier at Lingfield on Saturday if hes not hindered by another wide box position.

Why Do Shadows Lengthen?.....

Tomorrows 3.20 at Southwell sees the return of a Hollywood A-Lister searching for a six-timer in the shape of Mick Easterbys Shadows Lengthen.

Up 7lb for his latest win 2 weeks prior to Christmas, the inevitable step up in class occurs on his beloved Fibresand surface, where 5 others will be hoping a half stone increase stops him in his tracks.

His speed figures achieved when allowed to dictate the pace have been fairly consistent, and I can't envisage anything in the field that will take him on for the lead.

Profits Reality and Trachonitis rate as clear dangers on the figures, with the former preferred due to his prominent racing style.

Although Trachonitis did manage to get his nose in front last time out over the Fibresand, the surface was not riding anywhere near as quick as it has been on that occasion, earning a pace figure of only 43. The average since November is 63, which indicates a significant advantage to horses laying up with the early pace.
Up 10lb for his win on Dec 27, the trainers representative indicated following that win that he would be turned out again quickly under a penalty, this was not the case and could indicate the horse had a setback, or maybe the converse - that connections were confident, and more inclined to wait for a more profitable opportunity.

Although only 6 runners, this could be an interesting race. If Shadows Lengthen is allowed an uncontested lead, he will be difficult to peg back.

Elsewhere on the card, Imprimis Tagula bids to make amends for a poor showing last time out, where a change in tactics backfired spectacularly. Forcing a suicidal pace that day, he was cooked 2 furlong from home and the usual patient, stalking tactics could be in store in tomorrows 2.50, a class 2 handicap sprint over 6f.
Course specialist Ingleby Arch will be looking to reverse placings with the selection, following his 9 length drubbing last time out over an inadequate 7 furlong, this 6 will be more to his liking.

Selections:
2.50 Imprimis Tagula
3.20 Shadows Lengthen.

Good Luck All
Hollywood_G

Meydan Calling....

This Thursday (28th) sees the start of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, and the opening of Meydan, the new $billion racecourse in Dubai.

Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.

Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/

Tapeta is currently in use at two racetracks in the US, Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Golden Gate Fields in California.

Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.

In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.

Golden Gate fields is a little different, as there is no chute for the races run over a mile, the oval is around 8 furlongs in circumference, and the run-in is a little shorter than at Meydan, however, it gives us some information at which to start.

After some tedious calculations that I wont go into, using some information provided by the guys at http://www.speedfigures.com/ I have come up with the following standard times for the Tapeta surface at Meydan, that can be used as a guide until there have been a significant amount of races to enable more accurate calculations to be performed.

Tapeta Surface:

Distance (fur)  Std Time (Secs)

5                       56.0

5.5                    62.5
6                       69.6
7                       82.0
8                       95.0
9                     108.0
9.5                  114.5
10                   121.2
11                   135.0
12                   148.0

It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.

Hollywood_G

What is the opposite of Redemption?...

Whatever it is, thats what was achieved by Seek The Fair Land this evening.

Unlike the muddling pace last time out, there seemed no apparent excuses for tonights 4th place showing.

An alarming drift from 11/8 to 5/2 15 minutes prior to the off was not a good sign and the writing was on the wall on the home turn as the pace quickened and Carsons mount was left decidely flat footed.

The pace scenario I envisaged was on the button as Seek The Fair Land stalked a decent clip set by Simple Rhythm and Bravo Echo. Although 16/1 shot Indian Skipper had obviously not read the script as he flew 'Pegasus like' down the outside to pip Bravo Echo right on the bob.

Vintage was disappointing, racing keenly throughout the opening stages and was a spent force in the closing stages.

All in all, not a great outcome for the blog, or perhaps more importantly, my pocket!

I'm of the opinion that the handicapper may now have a grip on Seek The Fair Land, although will reserve full judgement until I have calculated todays speed figures for the Kempton meeting. My gut feeling however, is that the figure will be well below the level of his December 100+ performances.

Hollywood_G

Fair Land Seeking Redemption.....

Not a fantastic day for the blog on Saturday as Imprimis Tagula was a shade disappointing in the Super 7 race at Lingfield, attempting to force the pace throughout he faded badly in the final furlong to finish 6th.


A perfect split up the rail opened up for Elna Bright and he managed to hold on from the fast finishing Atlantic Story, who is one to follow on the Polytrack this winter.

The Scoop6 was won by 5 lucky punters, of which I was not one! Although the majority of the horses ran satisfactorily, achieving 5 placed finishes from the 6 selections.

I know its very short notice but tonight’s 6.45 Handicap at Kempton is a chance for A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' to make up for a slightly below-par performance in his last race, where he was beaten a short head in a tactical nightmare.

Being drawn in Box 1 could be soon as some to be a negative, but the stats don't back this up and the outside two stalls at Kempton have a decent record. There is not a natural pacesetter in tonight’s race with the majority of the field hold-up performers, but this should enable young William Carson to manoeuvre the gelding into a decent stalking position behind the other likely pacesetters Bravo Echo and Simple Rhythm.

Two interesting horses for the forecast are Vintage, who looked to need the race last time out at Kempton after a 207 day lay-off and Bravo Echo, who ran against a distinct pace bias in his first appearance for new connections after a 3 month break. Both horses should come on for their respective runs, and may play a part in the finish.

Recommendations:
Back Seek The Fair Land to win @ (a slightly alarming drifting) 9/4 with Bet365
Back Vintage EW @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (small Stakes)
Seek The Fair Land / Vintage / Bravo Echo (Reverse Forecasts)

Good Luck all,

Hollywood_G

Big Freeze puts All-Weather Centre Stage....

Happy New Year all, I have been unable to update the blog over the festive period as I nipped across the pond for a 'vacation' on the arctic East Coast of America.

Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.

However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?

Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.

Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.

Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.

Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.

Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.

There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.

Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.

The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:

Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl

Good Luck all

Hollywood_G