Awzaan to demolish the Abbey...

Stamina: physical or moral strength to resist or withstand illness, fatigue, or hardship; endurance.


Every year around the first weekend in May, the issue of stamina is scrutinised in unbelievable depth. 


On the eve of the first British Classic of 2009, anyone with a knowledge of the 'Dosage' system could have been forgiven for having Sea The Stars in the sprinter/miler category, given his 'Dosage Index' of 3.0 - a theory convincingly disproved as the superstar son of Cape Cross demolished the opposition in not only the guineas, but also both the Derby and the Arc De-Triomphe over 12 furlongs. 
(For more information on the intriguing dosage system, visit www.chef-de-race.com)


Again, stamina is the main unknown surrounding todays 2,000 guineas over Newmarket's undulating Rowley Mile. 


However, unlike the question marks surrounding Sea The Stars' perceived lack of staying power last year, this years inquiry surrounds the heavy favourite having too much stamina influence for a fast-ground Guineas trip.


There is no denying that the unbeaten St. Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu - Leaping Water) was mightily impressive in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last back-end, and the turn of foot produced on Town Moor that day had many of those in attendance salivating. 


However, as impressive as that performance looked, the time of the race was distinctly average, and a speed figure of 109 is short of the usual standard. Yes the going was fairly testing, but that would have played to his strengths, whereas the majority of horses in behind would have preferred a firmer surface.


A further negative for the O'Brien colt is the fact that only one horse has ever completed the Racing Post Trophy, 2000 guineas double - High Top in 1971/1972.


Typically thought of as more of a stamina influence, (as proven with the careers of the likes of Motivator, Hurricane Run, Authorised and Fame & Glory) his sire, the brilliant Montjeu has had only one runner in the 2000 guineas since standing in Coolmore's breeding shed (Solent, who finished 16th in the 2005 renewal, also finished 16th in a 2m Pontefract handicap two weeks ago) there must be a question that the mile trip on faster ground than ideal will be too sharp for the Irish raider.


And, as is usually the case, this season, many of O'Briens string have needed their first outing, couple this with the above statistics and the price of Evens doesn't look so appealing.


Rumours passing over the Irish sea have been of a 'wonderhorse', tearing apart the Ballydoyle gallops, and I do not doubt that Aidan O'Brien knows the horse a little better than I - if the vibes about him are correct, then we could have the next superstar on our hands. For the sport, that would be fantastic, although at the price I will reserve judgement until I have seen it on the course, rather than heard it in the wind.


Runner-up behind St. Nick in the Racing Post Trophy was John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality - Cara Fantasy) who returned with a bang to slaughter the Craven field over course and distance, Apr 15. 


Again, a speed figure of 107+ was not Group 1 class, although you could not fail to be impressed with the turn-of-foot shown, and he was heavily eased at the finish. He is a big rangy horse, and he took a little time to hit top-gear in the Craven, although connections feel that the end-to-end gallop in the guineas will suit him better - he has a live chance, but again may be seen in better light over middle distances, although Dunlop has already stated that due to his make-up, he is not a Derby horse.


Middleham trainer Mark Johnston, trainer of 1994 winner Mister Baileys - who crossed the line in a still standing record of 95.08seconds - saddles two in this years race.


Greyfriarschorista, runner-up in the 7f Listed Lingfield Spring Cup, has not shown the requisite level of form to be competitive at this level, and is most definitely the stables second-string.


The same cannot be said about unbeaten Awzaan (Alhaarth - Nufoos). Winner of the Group.2 Mill Reef, and Group.1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f (speed figure 114) when last seen in public, this good looking sort has also been the subject of rave gallop reviews, none more so than when impressive on a Newmarket racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting.


As stated in my previous blog, Johnston and jockey Richard Hills have no doubts about his ability to stay the mile, with his trainer stating recently that it will probably turn out to be his optimum. Given that he is likely to get his preferred ground conditions @ odds of 10/1 he must be high on the shortlist.


The second highest juvenile speed figure of last year (behind Arcano's July Stakes win) was the 119 achieved by Beethoven in the Dewhurst on Champions Day at HQ. 
Representing that form today are runner-up Fencing Master (118) third-placed Xtension (117) fifth placed Buzzword (113) and sixth placed Dick Turpin (108). 


Of the principals, Fencing Master (Oratorio - Moonlight Dance) was having only his second racecourse appearance in the Dewhurst and is open to any amount of improvement, while Clive Cox has been raving about the chance of Xtension (Xaar - Great Joy) in the build-up to today's race.


Richard Hannons Dick Turpin (Arakan - Merrily) returned to take this years renewal of the Group. 2 Greenham over Newburys 7f, achieving a figure of 109 when upsetting stable-mate and apparent apple of his trainers eye Canford Cliffs (Tagula - Mrs Marsh) who after hanging markedly, did not seem to stay the 7f trip - he cannot be relied upon to get home today.


However, Dick Turpin was not stopping at the end of the race, and although breeding suggests otherwise, should certainly stay the mile. At double the price of his Coventry winning stablemate, he could be worth an each-way tickle.


Another who has been the subject of rave reviews over the winter months is the John Best trained Inler (Red Ransom - Wedding Gift). Owner Harry Findlay has now sold a portion of the once-raced colt to the Sangster family, who after viewing the horse gallop, made an offer too good for Findlay to refuse. Lack of experience against some of the market principals may catch him out today, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.


With question marks over the majority of the market leaders, the race could be open to a big-priced outsider. The best chance of which may lie with experienced Group.1 Gran Criterium winner Hearts of Fire (Firebreak - Alexander Ballet). Pat Eddery's charge triumphed over a soft-ground mile at the San Siro, in which he beat subsequent Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York by a neck, he is appealing at around the 40/1 mark.


Hollywoods_G's Verdict and final Top-five.


Although St. Nicholas Abbey has many questions to answer, part of me hopes he comes up with the goods and is the superstar that he is claimed to be. 
Although after Sea The Stars amazing campaign last year, it could be too much to ask for another wonderhorse. I have a feeling that a few people may be guilty of getting a little carried away and I expect him to prove himself over further later in the season.


On firmer ground I expect Elusive Pimpernel to over-turn the four lengths that SNA beat him in the Racing Post Trophy, if he finds his top-gear leaving the dip, he will not be far behind.


One horse who he wouldn't want to let get first run on him is the very pacy Awzaan. If the Maktoum representative does get his head in front entering the closing stages he will be hard to pass, a trait apparent with the majority of Mark Johnston trained horses - at 10/1 he will be carrying my cash.


1 - Awzaan
2 - Elusive Pimpernel
3 - Fencing Master
4 - Hearts of Fire
5 - Xtension


Good Luck
Hollywood_G

Good Thursday - Awesome Awzaan....

Due to my new and exciting position at the ThoroughbredDailyNews (www.thetdn.com) I was lucky enough  to be invited to a press morning at Mark Johnston's training establishment in Middleham, the day before Good Friday.

The main attraction {no pun intended} of the visit was a glimpse of 2000 Guineas hope 'Awzaan', who looked stunning on the 6 furlong all-weather gallop under Richard Hills, who had flown in especially to work the Alhaarth colt.

Awzaan (striped-cap) worked with lead horse Cry of Freedom and Johnston explained that it would not be the norm to work a 3-year old with an older horse, such is the maturity shown by last years Gr.2 Mill Reef and Gr.1 Middle Park Stakes winner.

Question marks over the bays ability to stay the guineas mile were firmly refuted by both Johnston and Hills, and 10/1 could prove to be a big price for the first classic of the season on May 1.

Hollywood_G

Dubai World Cup Night Picks...

The weather in Dubai is expected to be 100+ degrees today, that will be a shock to the European shippers, a number of which have been reported as sweating up quite badly in their morning work.

After investing heavily at both 14/1 and 10/1, I will be shouting from any rooftops I can find if Kieren Fallon can steer Gitano Hernando to glory in the big one.
Marco Botti apparently has him right where he wants him, he is accustomed to travelling around the globe after shipping out to a [not quite as scorching] California in October and surprising a quality field in Santa Anitas Goodwood Stakes.

I'm convinced he'll go close today, and the bookies obviously agree as he is now trading around 9/2 favourite after pulling a perfect Box.2 in the draw.

The big danger is Japanese raider, Red Desire. The Manhattan Cafe filly produced a blistering turn of foot when taking the Third Round of the Maktoum Challenge and the obvious race for her after that scintillating win is the World Cup itself over C&D. Morning work-watchers out in Meydan have been very impressed with her look and behaviour this week and she rates a big danger to the selection, with super-cool Soumillon getting the leg up.

The travelling Japanese media could have a fantastic night as multiple Group 1 winning filly Buena Vista [not to be confused with recent Pertemps Hurdle winner of the same name] has a huge chance in the Sheema Classic over 1 1/2 miles on the Meydan turf. Buena Vista dished up a beating to World Cup hope Red Desire twice early in 2009 before finishing a nose second [subsequently placed third] to her old foe in the Group 1 'Shuka Sho' at Kyoto in October. She has since won the Group 2 Kyoto Kinen in fine style and can be competitive in this field.

Dubai World Cup night selections:
Race 1 - War Artist / California Flag
Race 2 - Cat Junior / Desert Party
Race 3 - Musir
Race 4 - Rocket Man / Kinsale King
Race 5 - Presvis
Race 6 - Buena Vista / Presious Passion
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando / Red Desire

Good Luck All
Hollywood_G