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Could pace provide the answer to $10million question?

2011-03-09T22:15:00.000Z

The 2011 Dubai Carnival draws to a conclusion Thursday night at Meydan, with the meeting serving as an interesting prelude to the big night on March 26th.

Godolphin's stranglehold on this years carnival shows no signs of relenting, with a total of 23 horses entered across the seven races, highlight of which is the G2 Zabeel Mile on the Turf at 17.45 (GMT).

Llanfranco has opted to ride last years impressive Royal Hunt Cup winner Invisible Man, in preference to Australian G2 winner Caymans. Slightly disappointing in their respective starts out in the Desert, both need to step up on recent form to be competitive in what looks a decent contest.

My idea of the winner is Marco Botti's Fanunalter. This son of Falbrav ran a fine race on his Dubai debut behind subsequent Al Fahidi Fort runner-up Raihana, and can improve on that performance to get the better of the ex-Pat Eddery trained G1 Gran Criterium victor Hearts of Fire. Now under the care of Qatari Ibrahaim Al Malki - now responsible for Qatar International winner Joshua Tree - he steps back to a mile following an improved effort in the 9f G2 Jebel Hatta behind Wigmore Hall. Qatar based jockey Adrie De Vries takes the ride.

After a too-bad-to-be-true performance on his Tapeta debut, JJ The Jet Plane reappears back on a more suitable turf surface hoping to book a ticket to the Al Quoz sprint on the World Cup card. Again conceding weight all round due to his lofty rating of 122, he may prove susceptible to something lurking lower in the weights. Doug Watson has had a somewhat disappointing season by his recent high standards, however Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's ex-William Haggas inmate Musaalem was not fully exerted behind War Artist three weeks ago and following a 3lb drop in the Handicap, could be running on strongly at the finish of the 6f event.

Godolphin's Spring of Fame was no match for the impressive Bold Silvano last time out in Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge, but should find the 9.5f 100-116 Tapeta Handicap within his grasp. If he wins impressively enough, he may still be aimed at the World Cup itself.

That brings me nicely onto the Dubai World Cup and as the field is starting to take shape, I have some initial thoughts on the three main protagonists for the $10million prize.

*Where prices are quoted they are the best currently available.

Twice Over - Henry Cecil *7-2.

Often bracketed as slightly below Top-Class, Twice Over holds the prestigious accolade of being the last ever winner of Newmarket's Champions S. following his back-to-back success in the October show-piece. Campaigned a little differently in this seasons quest for the World's biggest prize, he arrived in Dubai much earlier than when attempting the race last year and showed an impressive turn of foot to land his prep race in Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge over the World Cup distance. Although not a scintillating final time (in fact the slowest over the distance at this years carnival), Twice Over did record the fastest final quarter of any race above 8f to be run at Meydan this season, covering the 400m in 23.06, and the final furlong in an ultra-quick 11.77.

Bold Silvano - Mike De Kock *5-1.

The South African 'hype' horse coming into the Carnival, I blogged HERE anticipating his impressive Meydan debut and HERE following his facile victory. In the aftermath of that victory - when apparently not fully primed - he was instilled the clear favourite for the World Cup. However, he has since suffered a slight setback and missed a potential clash with Twice Over in Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge last week due to a bruised foot. De Kock does not seem too perturbed by the setback, telling the Racing Post..

"It is just a bruised foot, nothing serious and I would think he will just miss a few days. The short break may actually be a blessing as we have been keeping him busy in the mornings. He will now have to go to the World Cup without another run but that is no great issue as he was very fit and well before this minor setback."

Cape Blanco - Aidan O'Brien *6-1.

Having not had a runner in Dubai since 2005, mainly due to a well-publicised Coolmore/Godolphin spat, Aidan O'Brien surprised fans of racing with the announcement that last seasons Irish Derby and Champion S. winner Cape Blanco, along with three-year-olds Master of Hounds and Alexander Pope had been entered in the World Cup and UAE Derby respectively.

Ultra-impressive when landing the Irish Champion, Cape Blanco set a torturous pace that day and, after increasing the pain entering the straight, was kept to task by Seamus Heffernan with Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over treading water in behind.

In a further twist regarding Cape Blanco's participation in the 10f event, it has recently been announced that Mrs Fitri Hay, wife of former senior BP executive Jim Hay has purchased a 'substantial' share in the four-year-old.

Mrs Fitri Hay - new owner of significant %
of DWC hope Cape Blanco.

The Dubai-based Hay's are well-known within the Thoroughbred racing industry with horses in training with Paul Cole, Stan Moore and Tom Tate in the UK.

Full details of the deal have not been divulged, although it has been confirmed the horse will run in the Hay's Pink & Green colours thiscoming season.

Early race thoughts:

Anticipating the pace of the race could prove the key ingredient in determining where in the World the prize will reside for the following 12 months.

Last year's World Cup fractions of 26.72, 25.42, 25.79, 24.04, 22.87 indicates that Gloria de Campeao set a steady early pace and stepped on the gas between the 6-8f point of the race to just hold on in a bunched, but very fast finish. (The final furlong was covered in 11.24 secs).

This kind of scenario would seem ideal for Twice Over, given the change in gear he showed in his prep race and the fact that he ran a sub 12-sec final furlong, without being overly extended. He has the ability to quicken off a slow pace and given a better draw than last year, has an excellent chance of landing the spoils.

It is unclear what pace scenario would be the ideal for Bold Silvano, given the muddling affair apparent on his Dubai debut. With no obvious pacesetter, Soumillon decided to dictate his own relatively slow pace before increasing the tempo some 600m from the wire. (23.47 final 1/4). Again, showing the ability to quicken off a slow pace without maximum exertion.

Unlike Twice Over, stamina shouldn't be an issue, given that he won the G1 Durban July over an extra furlong in his homeland. Theoretically therefore, he shouldn't be too inconvenienced by a stronger pace, although stamina can soon evaporate given too strong an early pace.

The lack of sectional timing in the UK and Ireland hinders pace analysis of Cape Blanco's past performances somewhat. With the aid of video footage and a stopwatch it is possible to come up with some very crude measurements. It is also difficult to safely estimate ground conditions on turf and rail re-alignment throws yet another spanner in the works.

However, from the Irish Champion S. replay above, I hand-timed Cape Blanco's final 1/4 mile to be in the region of 27.20. This is slow, simply due to the very fast early fractions set by the son of Galileo. Given a final time of 2:03.89 for the 10 furlongs, I estimate that the initial mile of the contest was covered in 1:36.69, assuming even pace (although unlikely) then this equates to exactly 12secs per furlong, a pace that simply broke the trailing pack.

Conversely, this video shows Cape Blanco's performance in winning the Dante S. at York, where he lowered the colours of the Derby and Arc winner Workforce.

Again, some crude hand-timing estimates a final 1/4-mile fraction of 23.90, much quicker than the Irish Champion S, due to the much slower early pace. (Assuming even pace would work out in the region of 12.5 secs per furlong in the Dante).

This also indicates that Cape Blanco too has the ability to quicken on a decent surface (my speed figures indicate the Dante going was certainly Good to Firm).

Note: After reviewing the Juddmonte International (where Twice Over was narrowly beaten) over the Dante course & distance, the hand timing of the final 1/4 was in the region of 26.4 -

2.5s slower than recorded by Cape Blanco. Although slower going (Good) would have played a part in this, further timing from the gate to the top of the straight show that the Juddmonte's early pace was marginally quicker than that of the Dante.

As you will appreciate, a lot of the above is simply estimations and conjecture, although it does give us an idea of the kind of pace that might suit the 'big 3' at the head of the market.

Once the final field for the main event is established, we can predict the pacemakers and from there make an estimated guess at the kind of fractions to be expected and the main beneficiaries.

Hollywood_G

Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

2011-02-06T16:13:00.000Z

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

Escape the British mediocrity with red-hot Desert action....

2011-02-02T22:59:00.001Z

Racing fans wishing to escape the mediocrity of the British National Hunt season prior to the Cheltenham Festival are in for a treat of sublime proportions on Thursday evening as the Dubai Carnival at Meydan overflows with top-class action.

The highlight of a mouthwatering card is the second leg of the G3 Al Maktoum Challenge at 1810 (GMT), a contest that sees the eagerly-awaited Tapeta debut of Mike De Kock's World Cup contender Bold Silvano (SAf). Not seen in public since his victory in the GI Durban July at Greyville in his South African homeland 187 days ago, he is apparently working well in the Desert with his trainer reporting on his website that, "Bold Silvano is where we want him to be, well on target and still impressive. He makes the move to the all weather and he's short of his best, I'd say 85% ready-but we're expecting a big run."

The son of Silvano (Ger) was honoured as Horse of the Year after defeating stable-mate Irish Flame (SAf) at Greyville, a performance that prompted jockey Anthony Delpech to hail him superior to Vengeance of Rain (Nz), the winner of the 2007 G1 Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba.

Destined to go to post a short-priced favourite, there is no shortage of challengers ready to dent his lofty reputation if De Kock's stable star does not turn up with his A-Game in tow.

I was overly keen on Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando (GB) for last year's World Cup (see previous post: here) but he was never really in the race under Kieren Fallon despite finishing less than 2 lengths adrift of Gloria De Campeao (Brz). Botti has taken a different tact with Team Valor's charge this year, shipping him to Dubai early in order to better acclimatise the colt for a tilt at the £10 million prize.

Reportedly cherry ripe for this reappearance, a further change in tactic from Botti and Valor comes in the form of Hong Kong-based big-race jockey Weichong Marwing, who partnered Asiatic Boy (Arg) to victory in the UAE Derby in 2007. South African-born Marwing will partner the five-year-old for the first time in Thursday's 9.5 furlong event.

Other notable contenders for the G2 event include last year's shock 40/1 G1 Dubai Duty Free victor Al Shemali (GB). Formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute and third in the 2007 Dante won by Authorized (Ire), the chestnut swapped Freemason Lodge for Godolphin at the end of his Classic season and after a disappointing time in the Royal Blue for Saeed bin Suroor, was transferred into the care of UAE based Mubarak bin Shafya, before heading to Ali Rashid Al Raihe prior to last year's carnival. The seven-year-old returns to the scene of his finest hour some 263 days after a spirited third to Lizard's Desire (SAf) and Gloria De Campeao (Brz) in the G1 Singapore International at Kranji in May.

There may be no horses of the calibre of Workforce (GB) in the line-up, but in Interaction (Arg) we have the 2009 Argentine Horse of the Year, and winner of that year's International Grand Prix Carlos Pellegrini - the South American equivalent to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - for former trainer, Buenos Aires based Alfredo Gaitan Dassie.

He was subsequently sent to the tutelage of French maestro Pascal Bary, for whom he has so far managed only one appearance - disappointing in a bog-like Longchamp listed event in September. Unperturbed by that performance, Bary is confident the horse can redeem himself on better ground, and although unproven on a synthetic surface and possibly needing his first run, he should not be discounted from the reckoning.

After landing his 100th Carnival winner last week, Saeed bin Suroor will be hoping for more of the same at this weeks double header and last months comfortable course and distance Handicap victor Spring of Fame (USA) (speed figure 87) is his sole representative here. The ex-Mikael Magnusson five-year-old needs to improve on that, based strictly on the figures, but that is not outside the realms of possibility and as is the case with the majority of the field, he cannot be easily dismissed.

Verdict:
With a distinct lack of pace in the race, there is always the chance of an upset and it is a race to watch with an eye on the future, rather than a meaningful betting proposition. For those inclined to play, it could pay to take a chance on the fitness angle with My Indy (Arg), Spring of Fame and Trois Rois (Fr) all holding a fitness advantage.

I was very keen on Gitano Hernando for last year's event and with a more measured preparation this time around, he has to be in the shake-up come the last Saturday in March. I've had a little nibble in the World Cup ante-post market at 10/1, in the hope that an impressive performance causes his odds to tumble.

Thursday selections (sorry for the unimaginativeness of some)
Race 2 - Roayh (USA)
Race 3 - Mahbooba (Aus)
Race 4 - Telluride (GB)
Race 5 - Alo Pura (GB) - if absent Our Giant (Aus)
Race 6 - Colonial (Ire)
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando (GB)

Good Luck
Hollywood_G

New Pin-Up Girl....Filly in Focus

2011-01-27T00:31:00.000Z

Raihana (Aus)

(27Aug06 b f)

Elusive Quality (USA) - Esubooh (Aus)

Trainer: Mike De Kock

Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

Breeder: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

Image courtesy: racingweb.co.za

Every horse racing enthusiast will have a different reason for first prying under the stable door into the realm of the Sport of kings; Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum is no exception.

The first cousin of the current ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Khalifa was more at home in the Purebred Arabian sphere, training and riding his horses for marathon distances in the region of 120km through the Middle Eastern desert. Events so taxing they render UK endurance races such as the Cheltenham Gold Cup or even the Grand National void in comparison.

Things changed in 1996 when Sheikh Hamdan – brother to Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid – in an attempt to kindle his cousin’s enthusiasm for the sport that he and his brother, along with their late brother Maktoum bin Rashid, were so in love with from a young age, provided his cousin with four thoroughbred racehorses as a gift.

The quartet were to race in Dubai, and Map of Stars (USA), a son of American superstar stallion Danzig (USA), provided Sheikh Khalifa with his first winner from his very first runner.

From thereon in, the Sheikh has enjoyed success around the World and his enthusiasm for the sport as would be expected, has never waned.

He switched his attention from Dubai to the Southern Hemisphere and in 2000 made the significant acquisition of Sir Clive (NZ), who was purchased in New Zealand prior to his runner-up performance in the New Zealand Derby, and who also filled the same berth in the following years Australian Derby.

During the time of his Oceania successes, Sheikh Mohammed’s Dubai Racing Carnival was increasing in stature and popularity, and Sheikh Khalifa made the decision to expand his “Al Adiyaat” operation, returning to his homeland in 2006 to team up with South African champion trainer Mike De Kock.

It was following on from De Kock’s recommendation that he purchased Candy Critic (Arg), a daughter of Candy Stripes (USA), who had finished second in the 2006 South African Fillies Classic, and she promptly landed the South African Oaks on her first start for new connections.

Rumour has it that De Kock then travelled to South America under instruction of Sheikh Mohammed to purchase the Argentine champion, Husson (Arg).

Instead, the South African returned with a horse that had finished second to Husson in the G1 Gran Premio Gran Criterium at San isidro, Asiatic Boy (Arg).

This was to prove an inspired move, as Asiatic Boy became a flag bearer for the operation at the 2007 Dubai Carnival landing four straight victories, among them the UAE 2000 Guineas and on World Cup night, the UAE Derby by some 11 ½-lengths.

Image courtesy: Wikipedia.org

After a solid, but slightly unremarkable venture to England, where he finished a two-length fourth in the G1 Sussex S. to Ramonti (Fr) and down the field in the G1 Juddmonte International won by Authorized, Asiatic Boy returned to the Middle East with his target the World Cup itself.

Unfortunately for Sheikh Khalifa, Steve Asmussen also had his eye on Dubai’s biggest prize for his stable star Curlin (USA), and the American hero duly obliged, inflicting a 7 3/4-length defeat on his South American-bred challenger.

Asiatic Boy returned to Dubai the following year with ideas of grandeur and the World Cup again the target. After landing Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge in his World Cup warm-up, he was sent off the 2-1 favourite for the last ever race to be run on the Nad Al Sheba dirt, but was never in the race and finished a long way behind the eventual winner and another American raider in the form of Eoin Harty’s ex-Clive Brittain trained Well Armed (USA).

Sheikh Khalifa’s Yellow & Blue colours have – prior to 10/11 – been carried to victory on an impressive 29 occasions in the past five Dubai seasons, and Lizards Desire (SAf) only narrowly failed to end the quest for that elusive victory in the World’s richest race when narrowly beaten in a three way photograph for the $10million prize at Meydan in March of last year.

This years big World Cup hope appears to be the Durban July winner Bold Silvano (SAf), of whom De Kock told the Racing Post;

“...We are really looking forward to campaigning him in Dubai, when we'll certainly try him on the Tapeta - he's really pleased us working on the surface. We'll aim him at the Dubai World Cup and probably take in at least two legs of the Maktoum Challenge. He's exciting us...”

However, De Kock is also targeting the World’s richest event for two more of his stable stars; Musir (Aus), who was very impressive landing both the UAE 2000 Guineas and UAE Derby in 2010, and the filly who finished runner-up to her stable mate in the latter contest Raihana (Aus).

Raihana, by Elusive Quality (USA) is the first foal of the Sunday Silence (USA) mare Esubooh (Aus), purchased by Sheikh Khalifa as a yearling at the 2003 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale for $350,000.

The mare did not race but hails from an imposing bloodline being out of the Danehill (USA) mare Felicitation (Aus), herself a daughter of champion Emancipation (Aus).

With a WerkNick™ rating of A+ using the Elusive Quality – Sunday Silence cross. (view eNick), the combination is also responsible for another UAE Oaks winner in the form of Godolphin’s 2009 victor Devotee (USA) - another daughter of Elusive Quality, out of the Sunday Silence mare Danuta (USA).

Bred in Australia, Raihana was retained by Sheikh Khalifa and was sent to De Kock to begin her career in South Africa. Finishing runner-up in a 2yo Scottsville maiden on debut, she soon opened her account with a facile victory on her second go at Clairwood in July 2009.

Off the track following that success due to sore shins, she reappeared at last years Carnival, where she opened her Tapeta account with an impressive performance in the 1000 Guineas trial at the opening Meydan meeting.

Sent off the Even money favourite for the 1000 Guineas itself next time out, she could finish only fourth behind Godolphin’s shock 50-1 winner Siyaadah (GB).

Prior to the 2010 Carnival, Mike De Kock showed the regard in which he held the filly when speaking of the ten-furlong UAE Derby as a possible target for Raihana, and the four-year-old proved she had the stamina for the trip with an authoritative victory in the UAE Oaks a fortnight after her defeat in the Guineas.

However, seemingly only second in the Derby pecking order on World Cup night, the bay was ridden by Kevin Shea with Christophe Soumillon preferring her more fancied stable companion. The Belgian proved his judgement was beyond question as Musir passed his rival in the final furlong to lead home a 1-2 for the “Al Adiyaat” team.

Following the Carnival, Sheikh Khalifa arranged for the pair to return to Australia into the care of trainer David Payne, who was to prepare them both for an assault on the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley the following October.

Unfortunately for the Sheikh, things did not go according to plan and Musir has not been since in action since his Derby victory, while Raihana failed to fire in a listed Warwick Farm Handicap before disappointing in a G2 at Rosehill.

Now back under the tutelage of De Kock, she is due to reappear under top-weight back on the turf in a 95+ mile handicap on 27^th January, with her trainer reporting that; “...she looks very well indeed and the World Cup looks a feasible target, so well she is going. She’s really matured and is a cracking looking filly now...”.

She may only be third in line for the World Cup behind her more flashy stablemates, but she proved she was no also-ran in last years Derby, and if she puts up an impressive performance on seasonal debut, Sheikh Khalifa may just have another live outsider to challenge for that prize he so desperately desires.

Gavin Dobson, Jan 2011.

Zenyatta named Horse of the Year at last, but will we see her offspring in Europe?...

2011-01-18T20:25:00.001Z

Zenyatta. Image courtesy: The New York Times

After failing by a nose in both the 2008 & 2009 contests, the incredible Zenyatta finally landed the Eclipse Horse of the Year for 2010 at Monday nights star-studded event in Miami.

In what was another enthralling chapter of her remarkable 20 race career, the much-coveted mare managed to gain retribution on the horse that had the audacity to inflict that career-ending defeat beneath the Twin Spires in early November.

Following the Breeders' Cup, there had been a vast amount of verbal and keyboard sparring from those within the game, many of whom of the opinion that Blame - the conqueror - was the logical choice for the Horse of the Year award.

Although seemingly nip and tuck for the last 10 weeks or so since Blame dished up that last-gasp Kentucky defeat, the winning distance at the wire in Miami was a number of lengths as Zenyatta triumphed with 128 votes, some 26 more than the Al Stall's flag-bearer.

As revealed by Joe Drape in last Thursday's brilliant New York Times piece, Zenyatta is now reportedly ready to begin the next stage of her career as a Broodmare in the Kentucky breeding shed of Lane's End Farm, and the rumours are that fellow Lane's Enders A.P. Indy ($150,000) and Curlin ($40,000) may be top of Jerry Moss' list of potential mates.

However, a quick play with 'MareMatch' over at the Werk Nick website, highlights Coolmore USA inmate Giant's Causeway ($85,000) as the highest rated prospective Kentucky based stallion for Zenyatta with a WerkNick rating of A+++.

Giant's Causeway. Image courtesy: www.coolmore.com

This *Triple Plus* rating is based on the Giant's Causeway - Machiavellian cross, a 'Nick' that is, amongst others, responsible for the 2004 European champion juvenile Sharmadal and his son Lope de Vega, who emulated his sire when landing last year's Prix du Jockey Club - some five years after his sire's head victory over the errant Hurricane Run.

There are many reasons to believe that conquering Europe is almost definitely not at the top of Bronx-born Moss' priority list, but Zenyatta's record on synthetic surfaces could mean that a visit from such a proven turf influence as Giant's Causeway may produce a foal capable of competing on the highest stage in Europe.

The probability is extremely low, and I agree I may be guilty of more than a little amount of day-dreaming here, but if Zenyatta is currently the Queen of California, come October 2015 she could be responsible for the King of Longchamp.

Hollywood_G

Dubai Carnival 2011 opening night redux....

2011-01-14T01:07:00.000Z

After reviewing my speed figures from last year's carnival, it first seemed I was a little out with my approximated standard times for the new Tapeta course.

Obviously with no data to go on it was a difficult task - as detailed here -and early indications were that I was out by around about 2.5s/turn (which is a lot!).

However, it seems that last years times were on the slow side and now that the track has bedded in and settled down a little, it should ride a little quicker - a fact borne out by very fast times in the opening meetings of the season, including Alo Pura's lightning time in a six-furlong conditions event December 16th.

As for the opening nights results, there were some very familiar colours in the winners' enclosure, as Carnival heavyweights Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum & Mike de Kock's yellow and blue were forced to share the limelight with a more Royal shade in the form of Godolphin - with both bin Suroor and Al Zarooni off the mark in the early throes of this year's desert extravaganza.

Somewhat surprisingly it was Reem [#6], seemingly third in the de Kock pecking order, that made all of the running to record a shock victory over her more fancied stablemate Mahbooba [#1] in the opening 7f thoroughbred race on the card. The winner dictated the pace from the head of affairs, with the latter held off the pace and seemingly struggling to find her stride around the home bend before eating into the deficit in the final furlong.

The Trakus system highlights that Mahbooba covered 8m more ground than the winner and was beaten a half-length. That, coupled with the fact that she was giving the winner 7lbs shows she is probably the one to take from the race.

photo courtesy: www.emiratesracing.com

The next Tapeta race on the card was an 11f 95-105 Handicap, won in hardy style by Godolphin's ex-Luca Cumani inmate Rock N Roll Ransom [#14].

Trapped on the outside for the majority of the contest under Ryan Moore, the gelding son of Red Ransom showed a good attitude to out-gun the more seasoned campaigner Halicarnassus in the final furlong and Trakus shows the wide trip caused the winner to travel around 8m more than the runner-up and around 21m further than long-time leader Mojave Moon, who eventually faded into fifth.

photo courtesy: www.emiratesracing.com

Multiple South African G1 winner Our Giant [#10] had not been seen on a racecourse since finishing down the field in last years running of the G3 Al Quoz sprint on World Cup night, but the son of Giant's Causeway showed he retained at least some of his ability with an impressive victory over a now possibly inadequate 6f in the conditions sprint.

Held up towrds the rear and well off the tapeta-scorching early fractions set by Dandy Nicholls' Inxile, the 9-2 shot showed impressive tactical speed as he weaved through the pack in the final quarter-mile to land the spoils a shade comfortably.

The pacesetting British raider kept to task well to hold second on a track that does not lend itself to those attempting to make all, with 6f course record holder Alo Pura also staying on late to land third under Willie Supple. Dead-last rounding the home turn, Herman Brown's Bankable caught the eye with a fast-finishing fourth and may be worth a second look back up in trip - 6f is definitely towards the minimum he would appreciate.

photo courtesy: www.emiratesracing.com

Without doubt the most visually impressive performance of the night came in the last Tapeta race on the card - Round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge and the race won by last year's World Cup winner Gloria De Campeao.

Winner of his first three career starts, Mendip was highly touted but could finish only third in the UAE Derby on the World Cup card.

Reappearing in the famous Green & Red colours of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum he was settled into a stalking role for the majority of the mile contest and after always travelling with consummate ease, Frankie Dettori required only a wake-up flick of the whip entering the final two furlongs as the $375,000 2yo scampered away from his rivals to score hard held.

Last years consistent Zabeel Mile winner and Dubai Duty Free third Imbongi was not given a hard time once the winner had kicked for home and landed second without expending too much energy. This was a nice pipe-opener for Mike de Kock's 7yo and he will no doubt play a big part in the Carnival again this time around.

photo courtesy: www.emiratesracing.com

Dubai International Racing Carnival - Meydan, 13th January 2o11

Speed Figures

Tapeta:
Reem - 74+
Rock N Roll Ransom - 88
Our Giant - 92+
Mendip - 84+

Pace figure - 37.5: indicating some advantage to off-the-pace performers.

Turf:
Dandy Boy - 87
Wajir - 105
Steele Tango - 70

Pace figure - 11: indicating significant advantage to off-the-pace performers.

Hollywood_G
Twitter: @gav_dobson

2000 Guineas winner heads "Straight to Longchamp"....

2010-12-31T13:33:00.001Z

Before I go on, let me just state that I have nothing against the Cheltenham Festival. I have been on numerous occasions and sincerely love the place. I even stayed for ten races on the Thursday of 2008; the day Master Minded produced THAT performance and Inglis Drever won his third World Hurdle.

The atmosphere on a day such as this years Gold Cup Friday is like no other event I have attended, and is one that every sports fan, whether racing inclined or not, should experience at least once.

National Hunt used to be my bag. I seemed to do well on the betting side, I actually enjoyed going racing in the wintry weather and there was no better sight than watching a top class horse sneaking into contention three of four obstacles out as their rivals tread water and eventually drown before the last.

That’s now changed.

I fell out of 'real' love with National Hunt racing about the time of Kauto Star’s second Gold Cup victory. Perverse I know. Obviously I still keep up with the goings on of the game and I still get excited when I see a high-class performance.

I watched the Hennessey this year with the same enthusiasm as I always have. Impressed with Diamond Harry, I wondered where he might turn up next - then I realised one of the reasons why I fell out of love with the jumping game.

The phrase: "The horse will now head straight to Cheltenham".

Over the last few years, this has become an increasingly annoying trait and I sort of understand why.

The Cheltenham Festival is THE festival. No matter what the connections' history or stature within the game, EVERYONE wants a winner at Cheltenham in March.

I'm not saying this is a bad thing. If I were an owner then I'd be exactly the same. I'd be pushing my trainer to prime my horse for Cheltenham where the money's good and the prestige even better.

But what about the fans that want to see these animals compete, the fans who are being starved of high quality racing and not just because of the weather!

Racing for Change have messed around with tradition and the flat fixture list by switching Champions Day from its spiritual home. But to me, the flat season isn't broken.

There is no 'Cheltenham' of the flat season, the one target for all to hit. There are plenty. We are almost spoiled for choice.

It rolls off the tongue - Guineas, Chester, York, The Derby, Royal Ascot, The Eclipse, Glorious Goodwood, York, The Leger, The Arc, Champions Day, Breeders' Cup.

There's something for everyone in that list with plenty more in between.

I know the stresses and strains of five furlongs at York are in stark contrast to a three mile slog around Prestbury, but horses have always ran - that's what they do is it not?

Some horses are best fresh, I don't argue that fact, but not to the extent that we are hearing the "straight to the festival" quote.

The trends highlight that horses that head straight to the festival without a run in that calendar year have a dismal record - although that may be skewed this year due to the sheer amount of "fresh" horses lining up.

Like I said, I don't blame the trainers or other connections, but in my opinion the powers that be at Racing for Change need to look at the structure of the jumps season to offer more incentives to run horses.

One things for sure - barring injury - you won't hear Henry Cecil stating that Frankel goes "straight to Longchamp" after he waltzes away with the Guineas in May – there’s too many short term targets to hit before thinking of the long term.

Gavin Dobson, December 2010

Twitter: @gav_dobson

2010 Bloodstock Review & recent 'ringside' action.

2010-12-23T16:28:00.001Z

The race for the 2010 flat jockey’s title may have gone right to the wire, but there was to be no last minute excitement in the bid to be top UK sire - a contest over long before Doncaster’s season finale.

After surrendering his title to fellow Coolmore stallion Danehill Dancer in 2009, Galileo regained his crown in impressive style amassing total earnings near £5m; almost double that of nearest challenger and another son of Danehill – Juddmonte Farm’s Dansili.

Ballydoyle’s Irish Derby and Irish Champion S. victor Cape Blanco was the top Galileo earner of 2010 with an impressive haul of over £1.3m. Those earnings, when added to his three juvenile victories makes him the third most successful progeny of his sire ever in terms of prize money and the chestnut will bid to help Galileo retain his crown, not to mention improve on his own already impressive record as he races on in 2011.

Another Ballydoyle inmate making a hefty contribution to Galileo’s success was the recently retired Rip Van Winkle, who garnered almost £650k in prize money, but managed only one victory – a last-gasp success over Twice Over in the Juddmonte International at York. Last seen in public when beaten a nose by Godolphin’s Poet’s Voice in the QEII S. at Ascot, Timeform’s highest ever rated son of Galileo now heads to Coolmore’s Irish Stud to stand alongside his sire, at a fee of €20k.

Galileo clearly has plenty of ammunition in his war chest for next season, and it would be no surprise if his most explosive weapon turned out to be Henry Cecil’s unbeaten Dewhurst winner and champion two-year-old Frankel. The much-hyped bay amassed over £266k in his four Juvenile victories and goes into the winter as the clear favourite for both the 2000 Guineas and The Derby. Cecil is not one to be easily carried away, and when he talks of Frankel in the same breath as horses like Wollow and Diesis then people will sit up and take note. However, despite waxing lyrical for some time about the bays ability, Cecil has expressed concerns about his stamina for the Derby trip.

Other Galileo juveniles sitting prominently in the Ante-Post markets for next years Classics include Prix Marcel Boussac heroine Misty for Me, joint favourite for the 1000 Guineas, along with Dewhurst runner-up and Criterium International victor Roderic O’Connor, who sits just behind Frankel in the market for the first two colt’s Classics.

Although Galileo’s nearest challenger Dansili finished a long way adrift in second, the contest may have been closer but for the career-ending gallops injury suffered by Sir Micheal Stoute’s imperious King George VI victor Harbinger. That injury led to his retirement to stud rated the Greatest Racehorse in the World and at the time, hot favourite for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. With prize money in the region of £2m for the winner of Longchamp’s Autumn showcase, a Harbinger victory would have taken the top-sire race right down to the wire.

Proving that he deserves his ‘World Class’ title, Galileo was not only successful on European shores and at the time of writing tops the worldwide sire list of Northern Hemisphere earnings.

Although only seventh in the UK list, Darley’s now French based King’s Best – sire of Epsom Derby and Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe hero Workforce - lies in second place in those worldwide rankings with earnings of £5.5m.

There is no doubt that is an impressive haul, but a closer look reveals that it is almost entirely due to two of his Classic generation, as Japanese bred Eishin Flash amassed £1.2m for his Japanese Derby victory at Tokyo, six days prior to Workforce’s Epsom master class.

Those Derby victories, along with Workforce’s gutsy Longchamp success accounted for almost £4m of King’s Best earnings and although only just adrift in terms of prize-money, his ten black-type victories in 2010 is a long way behind Galileo’s tally of 17 - a notable seven of those coming at the highest level.

With a European record of 36 first-season winners, Darley’s Iffraaj was a clear-cut winner of the freshman sire title, amassing almost £1m from his 70 strong first crop.

His current flag-bearer and sole G1 victor is Richard Fahey’s unbeaten colt Wootton Bassett, who landed two valuable sales races before a pillar-to-post victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere-Grand Criterium at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. He will now be aimed at the 2000 Guineas for which he is currently a top price of 16/1, and his trainer, who rates him as the best he’s ever had, is reportedly confident of a bold show in the Newmarket showpiece.

Ringside Action.

It has been a busy period on the sales circuit of late, with plenty of recession-busting bidding taking place around the World.

One recently retired colt whose first progeny were destined to cause a stir is last years champion and half-brother to Galileo, Sea the Stars. Busy plying a lucrative trade at The Aga Khan’s Gilltown Stud following his authoritative Arc success, Christopher Tsui’s superstar has reportedly covered in the region of 120 mares at a fee of €85k each.

To date, nine mares confirmed in foal to the superstar son of Cape Cross have sold at an average price a little over £450k, with the first of those appearing at the Fasig-Tipton November Breeding sale in Lexington, Kentucky following the Breeders’ Cup meeting. Love to Dance, an impeccably bred daughter of Sadler’s Wells and sister to 2007 Arc winner Dylan Thomas, now holds the accolade of being the first to be sold through a public sales ring after bloodstock agent Ryan Bell went to $1,050m for the ex-Ballydoyle five-year-old on behalf of John Clay’s Kentucky based Alpha Delta stable.

The first to pass through a UK ring was another ex-Ballydoyle Sadler’s Wells mare in the form of Soinlovewithyou. UK based bloodstock agent, and advisor to Lady Bamford, Hugo Lascelles paid 950k gns for the half-sister to Duke of Marmalade at the Tattersall’s December Mares sale. Apparently purchased on behalf of owner-breeders in the US, Lascelles indicated that the foal might return to a UK sale in the future.

The two recent Tattersalls December sales included 34 horses from the dispersal of Lady Tavistock’s Woburn based Bloomsbury Stud, which is to cease operation after 45 years.

First, a daughter of Highest Honor out of the 1980 Queen Mary S. winner Pushy, realised the highest price when sold to agent Charlie Gordon Watson for 1.1m gns. Bought on behalf of an undisclosed ‘big new investor’ in British bloodstock, the 12-year-old dam of Michael Stoute’s Ascot specialist Perfect Stride is confirmed in foal to Cape Cross.

Topping the previous week’s foal’s sale at 320k gns was another from the Bloomsbury dispersal - a March 12 colt by the ill-fated Singspiel out of the above mare First. Following a rare Coolmore - Darley duel, it was Pat Shanahan and Michael (M.V.) Magnier who came out on top for the Tipperary heavyweights.

Sirecam video of Singspiel/First colt

Bloodstock agent David Redvers signed for the top lot at the December mares sale with a bid of 1.3m gns for Diary - a daughter of Green Desert and the dam of 2009 Prix de l’Abbaye winner Total Gallery. Confirmed in foal to Galileo, the mare was purchased on behalf of Qatar Royal, Sheikh Fahad Al Thani.

The first foals of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Raven’s Pass have been well received, with particular success across the Atlantic at the Keeneland November sale. Averaging just over £100k from 15 sales, the highest price paid is currently $335k for a March 14th colt out of Japanese mare Eishin Bridle who was part of the dispersal of Jerry Bailey and Lance Robinson’s Gulf Coast Farms. A major player near the top of the U.S. breeding and sales industries in recent years, Gulf Coast are perhaps best known as the breeder of champion two-year-old and Preakness S. winner Lookin At Lucky, who will now stand at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Kentucky for a fee of $35k in 2011.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and bloodstock advisor John Ferguson showed support for their Darley stallion when going to 170k gns each for two colts at Tattersalls December. The second of the colts purchased is out of Italian Oaks winning mare Zanzibar and as such is a half-brother to American Stakes performer and ex-Michael Bell inmate Spice Route.

The top first-season sire at Keeneland November was four-time G1 winner Henrythenavigator who stands for $65k alongside Giant’s Causeway and Lookin At Lucky at Coolmore America. With an average of $208k from five lots, a March 17th foal out of American G1 winning mare Versailles Treaty was his top-priced colt fetching $450k.

Duke of Marmalade, another of Coolmore’s new multiple G1 winning Stallions has also been well received with a current average sale price of £57k from 21 sold lots. Timmy Hyde’s Camas Park Stud paid a high of €215k at Goffs November for a February 26th colt and fourth produce of Bowstring, a group placed ex-Juddmonte daughter of Sadler’s Wells.

Gavin Dobson, December 2010

Twitter: @gav_dobson

Folly to dismiss European 'also-rans' across the Pond...

2010-11-04T13:48:00.002Z

Even by his own very high standards, the 2010 season has been a roaring success for Prince Khalid Abdullah and his Juddmonte Farms operation.

At the time of writing, the famous Green and Pink colours have been carried to success at the highest level in eleven G1 contests in Europe, not to mention four at the highest level in the US.

Although the G1 winners began as early as May when Special Duty landed Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas, June 5^th was a red-letter day for the operation as subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hero Workforce landed the G1 Epsom Derby in record-breaking fashion.

That was not the end of the big-race honours for the Saudi Prince that day as just four hours later his ex-French trained mare Proviso battled to victory in the Just A Game S. at Belmont Park to land the second of her four GI victories since transferring to the American barn of Hall of Fame trainer William Mott.

Crossing the water from Europe for a new life in the US is not a new occurrence for racehorses.

Reports suggest that Bulle Rock, a direct descendant of the Darley Arabian left the UK for Virginia as early as 1730 and around the time of the American Revolution, perhaps the most significant British imports stepped foot on American soil in the form of Messenger and Diomed.

The latter - winner of the inaugural Epsom Derby in 1780 - is plausibly the most important to ever make the long journey West as in 1805 he sired what many believe to be the greatest of America’s Foundation sires, Sir Archy.

More recently however, horses departing European shores for a new life in America have done so not to forge a career in the breeding shed but to aim for prizes seemingly out of reach in their homeland.

Despite various campaigns in support of a switch to synthetic surfaces in order to reduce the number of serious injuries, the vast majority of racing in the US still takes place on a traditional dirt surface. Races on turf play second fiddle, and breeding patterns ultimately follow suit with horses in America continuing to be bred for dirt suiting speed over turf suiting stamina.

Those bred for a career on dirt rarely travel beyond 10 furlongs (1¼ miles), with only a handful of high-quality dirt races over further. The highest profile example being the Belmont S. - third leg of the American Triple Crown - known colloquially as the ‘test of the champion’ due to its seemingly gruelling distance of 12 furlongs (1½ miles)).

This is obviously not the case in Europe, where, although there are a handful of courses with synthetic surfaces, the predominant racing surface is turf and races are run over much further.

Breeding practices in the World of turf racing differ significantly because of this with horses much more likely to be bred with longer distances in mind.

This approach gives them the upper hand when pitched into turf contests against their US counterparts and the superiority of European runners in turf races at the Breeders’ Cup backs up this hypothesis.

European invaders have recorded 43 wins at the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984 with 34 of those wins coming on the grass.

However, it may be worth noting that it is not only the high-class Euro raiding party at the Breeders’ Cup that taste success at the highest level on the American turf.

The aforementioned Proviso – as a winner of two G3 contests in France - is not the typical European to Stateside expatriate. More often than not, those finding success at the highest level after a Transatlantic voyage, boarded the plane carrying with them moderate form at best from their native land.

Before leaving his County Kildare base for a new life in America, David Hanley co-bred and trained a Pivotal filly by the name of Golden Apples.

Successful in one of her four starts in Ireland, Golden Apples’ best form came when third in the 2001 renewal of the G2 Pretty Polly S. at The Curragh. Sold soon after to infamous owner Gary Tanaka, she was transferred into the care of California based trainer Ben Cecil and won the 2001 G1 Del Mar Oaks on her American debut.

Placed in two further G1 events that year, the filly was named the 2002 Female Grass Runner of the Year following victories in the GI Beverley D. S. at Arlington, the GI Yellow Ribbon S. at Santa Anita Park and her fourth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf back in Chicago.

She was retired to broodmare duties in 2003 following a 1/2-length defeat in the GI John C. Mabee Handicap at Del Mar, with career earnings totalling of over $1.6million.

Similarly, the ill-fated Tuscan Evening - herself a leading contender for the same Eclipse Award as Golden Apples before her untimely death in August of this year - was another to achieve dramatic improvement following a drastic change in scenery.

G2 and G3 placed in Ireland, the bargain 4,500guineas weanling was arguably unlucky not to spring a 66/1 shock in the G1 2008 Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh, but the daughter of Oasis Dream did not manage a win in eleven starts for trainer John Joseph Murphy and left for California at the end of her three-year-old campaign.

Successful on her second start in America, the bay landed eight further victories and over $1.1million in prize-money for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. At the time of her premature passing, she was unbeaten in six stakes contests - a run that concluded with victory in the GI Gamely S. at Hollywood Park in May.

In late November 2009, Tuscan Evening finished second, beaten 1¾-lengths in the GI Matriarch S. at Hollywood Park. The winner that day was Ventura, another Juddmonte Farms UK export with a mediocre level of form in Britain - though she did land a Kempton Listed contest on her final start in the UK for Amanda Perrett.

Transferred into the care of the late, great Bobby Frankel following that success, the daughter of the 2000 GI Arlington Million winner Chester House - himself another Juddmonte UK to US shipper, though one with a slightly higher level of form being the winner of the 1999 Brigadier Gerard S. at Sandown – won a G2 at Keeneland on her US debut.

Two starts later Ventura landed the spoils in Belmont’s GI Just A Game S. and was an admirable second on a yielding surface in the GI Woodbine Mile. The mare bounced back to form in style with an impressive four-length victory in that years renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf on the Santa Anita Pro-Ride before following up in the GI Santa Monica Handicap over the same course & distance.

In March 2009 she was beaten only a nose by American turf superstar - and last years Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up - Gio Ponti in the Frank E Kilroe Mile on the Santa Anita turf but then made amends for the defeat in the Woodbine Mile a year prior when returning to the Canadian track following a five month lay-off to land the odds in September.

She failed to defend her crown in the Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita when a 1¼-length second to nemesis Informed Decision but ended her career on a high with the facile victory over Tuscan Evening, taking her earnings over $2.5million.

With this years Breeders’ Cup meeting at Churchill Downs on the horizon, it may pay dividends not to hastily discount any familiar names who did not set the World alight on European soil - and rest assured, even if the ex-Euro ‘also-rans’ do not land the spoils at the US World Championships in November, they will not be taking part in any future GIs merely to give their new connections a day in the American sun.

Please visit my new Website...

2010-08-26T23:14:00.002+01:00

Hi,

Due to a multitude of commitments, I am struggling to keep atop of this blogging lark - as can be seen from my lack of posts in the last few months!

However, I have recently uploaded a new website that aims to showcase my editorial skills a little more than my speed figure skills - now that I am officially a Freelance Journalist!

Please head over to http://www.gdobson.co.uk to check out the site and feel free to let me know what you think.

One day I hope to resurrect this blog as my speed figures seem to be working better than ever lately, when I get the time to use them that is!

Many Thanks
Hollywood_G

Forcing the argument....

2010-06-07T13:28:00.000+01:00

The dust has now settled on an amazing Classic weekend, not just for Ryan Moore, but for horse racing fans in general.
The amazing feats of last years hero Sea The Stars seem to have propelled the sport more into the mainstream, a fact highlighted by the coverage of Saturdays big race on all the news channels I tuned into on Saturday evening, along with the Sunday rags yesterday morning.

Who could blame them? The performance put up by Workforce on the Downs on Saturday was not something I, nor even Sir Michael Stoute was expecting. Following last years above average crop of sophomore's, the race this year (after the somewhat 'unfortunate' news about St. Nic) seemed devoid of a superstar, how wrong I was!

I was in attendance at York when Workforce was all the hype for the Dante in May. I didn't fancy him that day, preferring to throw my cash at Michael Bell's more battle-hardened Co-ordinated Cut instead. I was however, impressed with his performance in finishing runner-up, as he spent much of the final four furlongs head-cocked and tongue lolling, before running on at the finish. We all now know the events that transpired during the Dante and in retrospect it was a fantastic achievement finishing so close to Cape Blanco, a serious horse in his own right.

The vibes emanating from the yard leading upto the Derby could not have been stronger, these whispers, coupled with the fact that SMS is not one for entering horses just for an enjoyable day out pointed to a big run from Workforce on only his third career start - he didn't disappoint!

As I've explained previously, I'm a time man. Obviously, my handicapping methods incorporate more than a physical comparison of final times, however, the biggest piece in my proverbial puzzle are the digits on the stopwatch as the winner passes the post. You can now begin to imagine how I felt when I saw 2:31.33 flash before my eyes following Saturday's classic.

Last night, having managed to ease myself from the ceiling, I sat down to evaluate the race, along with Fridays Oaks and the multitude of other meetings over the weekend.

After a little deliberation, I have awarded Workforce a speed figure of 130. Which, on my scale is an amazing figure for a 3yo to achieve on only his third career start. To add a little perspective, Fame and Glory has been awarded a 125 for his impressive Coronation Cup victory, equating to a 3.75 length victory for Workforce in a match race (although we all know things aren't that simplistic!).

The figure of 130 equals Sea The Stars' Eclipse win last July, which highlights the strength of performance from the good-looking son of Kings Best.

Given the way that the horse won, along with the improvement to come, there is no way we have seen the best of this colt.

Suddenly 2010's below average division of 3 year-olds have a way above average classmate.

Incidentally, Friday's fillies classic won by Snow Fairy recorded a disappointing figure of 110, some way short of the Class Par. It seems this years classic fillies also seem a below average crop, it remains to be seen whether there is a Workforce-esque performance lurking, I certainly hope so.

Hollywood_G

New addition....

2010-05-13T19:06:00.001+01:00

I have updated the blog to include the top three Speed Figure performances from April.
These are horses who have recorded excellent speed figures in winning their respective races and should be followed when next appearing. (Note: Harbinger has since won the Group.3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester in taking fashion).

Check it out by clicking the 'April's Heavy Hitters' Tab to your right....

I will hopefully add a review of the recent racing shenanigans over the next few days, including my take on the current (murky) Derby picture.

Hollywood_G

Awzaan to demolish the Abbey...

2010-05-01T11:31:00.001+01:00

Stamina: physical or moral strength to resist or withstand illness, fatigue, or hardship; endurance.

Every year around the first weekend in May, the issue of stamina is scrutinised in unbelievable depth.

On the eve of the first British Classic of 2009, anyone with a knowledge of the 'Dosage' system could have been forgiven for having Sea The Stars in the sprinter/miler category, given his 'Dosage Index' of 3.0 - a theory convincingly disproved as the superstar son of Cape Cross demolished the opposition in not only the guineas, but also both the Derby and the Arc De-Triomphe over 12 furlongs.
(For more information on the intriguing dosage system, visit www.chef-de-race.com)

Again, stamina is the main unknown surrounding todays 2,000 guineas over Newmarket's undulating Rowley Mile.

However, unlike the question marks surrounding Sea The Stars' perceived lack of staying power last year, this years inquiry surrounds the heavy favourite having too much stamina influence for a fast-ground Guineas trip.

There is no denying that the unbeaten St. Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu - Leaping Water) was mightily impressive in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last back-end, and the turn of foot produced on Town Moor that day had many of those in attendance salivating.

However, as impressive as that performance looked, the time of the race was distinctly average, and a speed figure of 109 is short of the usual standard. Yes the going was fairly testing, but that would have played to his strengths, whereas the majority of horses in behind would have preferred a firmer surface.

A further negative for the O'Brien colt is the fact that only one horse has ever completed the Racing Post Trophy, 2000 guineas double - High Top in 1971/1972.

Typically thought of as more of a stamina influence, (as proven with the careers of the likes of Motivator, Hurricane Run, Authorised and Fame & Glory) his sire, the brilliant Montjeu has had only one runner in the 2000 guineas since standing in Coolmore's breeding shed (Solent, who finished 16th in the 2005 renewal, also finished 16th in a 2m Pontefract handicap two weeks ago) there must be a question that the mile trip on faster ground than ideal will be too sharp for the Irish raider.

And, as is usually the case, this season, many of O'Briens string have needed their first outing, couple this with the above statistics and the price of Evens doesn't look so appealing.

Rumours passing over the Irish sea have been of a 'wonderhorse', tearing apart the Ballydoyle gallops, and I do not doubt that Aidan O'Brien knows the horse a little better than I - if the vibes about him are correct, then we could have the next superstar on our hands. For the sport, that would be fantastic, although at the price I will reserve judgement until I have seen it on the course, rather than heard it in the wind.

Runner-up behind St. Nick in the Racing Post Trophy was John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality - Cara Fantasy) who returned with a bang to slaughter the Craven field over course and distance, Apr 15.

Again, a speed figure of 107+ was not Group 1 class, although you could not fail to be impressed with the turn-of-foot shown, and he was heavily eased at the finish. He is a big rangy horse, and he took a little time to hit top-gear in the Craven, although connections feel that the end-to-end gallop in the guineas will suit him better - he has a live chance, but again may be seen in better light over middle distances, although Dunlop has already stated that due to his make-up, he is not a Derby horse.

Middleham trainer Mark Johnston, trainer of 1994 winner Mister Baileys - who crossed the line in a still standing record of 95.08seconds - saddles two in this years race.

Greyfriarschorista, runner-up in the 7f Listed Lingfield Spring Cup, has not shown the requisite level of form to be competitive at this level, and is most definitely the stables second-string.

The same cannot be said about unbeaten Awzaan (Alhaarth - Nufoos). Winner of the Group.2 Mill Reef, and Group.1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f (speed figure 114) when last seen in public, this good looking sort has also been the subject of rave gallop reviews, none more so than when impressive on a Newmarket racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting.

As stated in my previous blog, Johnston and jockey Richard Hills have no doubts about his ability to stay the mile, with his trainer stating recently that it will probably turn out to be his optimum. Given that he is likely to get his preferred ground conditions @ odds of 10/1 he must be high on the shortlist.

The second highest juvenile speed figure of last year (behind Arcano's July Stakes win) was the 119 achieved by Beethoven in the Dewhurst on Champions Day at HQ.
Representing that form today are runner-up Fencing Master (118) third-placed Xtension (117) fifth placed Buzzword (113) and sixth placed Dick Turpin (108).

Of the principals, Fencing Master (Oratorio - Moonlight Dance) was having only his second racecourse appearance in the Dewhurst and is open to any amount of improvement, while Clive Cox has been raving about the chance of Xtension (Xaar - Great Joy) in the build-up to today's race.

Richard Hannons Dick Turpin (Arakan - Merrily) returned to take this years renewal of the Group. 2 Greenham over Newburys 7f, achieving a figure of 109 when upsetting stable-mate and apparent apple of his trainers eye Canford Cliffs (Tagula - Mrs Marsh) who after hanging markedly, did not seem to stay the 7f trip - he cannot be relied upon to get home today.

However, Dick Turpin was not stopping at the end of the race, and although breeding suggests otherwise, should certainly stay the mile. At double the price of his Coventry winning stablemate, he could be worth an each-way tickle.

Another who has been the subject of rave reviews over the winter months is the John Best trained Inler (Red Ransom - Wedding Gift). Owner Harry Findlay has now sold a portion of the once-raced colt to the Sangster family, who after viewing the horse gallop, made an offer too good for Findlay to refuse. Lack of experience against some of the market principals may catch him out today, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.

With question marks over the majority of the market leaders, the race could be open to a big-priced outsider. The best chance of which may lie with experienced Group.1 Gran Criterium winner Hearts of Fire (Firebreak - Alexander Ballet). Pat Eddery's charge triumphed over a soft-ground mile at the San Siro, in which he beat subsequent Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York by a neck, he is appealing at around the 40/1 mark.

Hollywoods_G's Verdict and final Top-five.

Although St. Nicholas Abbey has many questions to answer, part of me hopes he comes up with the goods and is the superstar that he is claimed to be.
Although after Sea The Stars amazing campaign last year, it could be too much to ask for another wonderhorse. I have a feeling that a few people may be guilty of getting a little carried away and I expect him to prove himself over further later in the season.

On firmer ground I expect Elusive Pimpernel to over-turn the four lengths that SNA beat him in the Racing Post Trophy, if he finds his top-gear leaving the dip, he will not be far behind.

One horse who he wouldn't want to let get first run on him is the very pacy Awzaan. If the Maktoum representative does get his head in front entering the closing stages he will be hard to pass, a trait apparent with the majority of Mark Johnston trained horses - at 10/1 he will be carrying my cash.

1 - Awzaan
2 - Elusive Pimpernel
3 - Fencing Master
4 - Hearts of Fire
5 - Xtension

Good Luck
Hollywood_G

Good Thursday - Awesome Awzaan....

2010-04-05T16:49:00.003+01:00

Due to my new and exciting position at the ThoroughbredDailyNews (www.thetdn.com) I was lucky enough to be invited to a press morning at Mark Johnston's training establishment in Middleham, the day before Good Friday.

The main attraction {no pun intended} of the visit was a glimpse of 2000 Guineas hope 'Awzaan', who looked stunning on the 6 furlong all-weather gallop under Richard Hills, who had flown in especially to work the Alhaarth colt.

Awzaan (striped-cap) worked with lead horse Cry of Freedom and Johnston explained that it would not be the norm to work a 3-year old with an older horse, such is the maturity shown by last years Gr.2 Mill Reef and Gr.1 Middle Park Stakes winner.

Question marks over the bays ability to stay the guineas mile were firmly refuted by both Johnston and Hills, and 10/1 could prove to be a big price for the first classic of the season on May 1.

Hollywood_G

Dubai World Cup Night Picks...

2010-03-27T10:57:00.000Z

The weather in Dubai is expected to be 100+ degrees today, that will be a shock to the European shippers, a number of which have been reported as sweating up quite badly in their morning work.

After investing heavily at both 14/1 and 10/1, I will be shouting from any rooftops I can find if Kieren Fallon can steer Gitano Hernando to glory in the big one.
Marco Botti apparently has him right where he wants him, he is accustomed to travelling around the globe after shipping out to a [not quite as scorching] California in October and surprising a quality field in Santa Anitas Goodwood Stakes.

I'm convinced he'll go close today, and the bookies obviously agree as he is now trading around 9/2 favourite after pulling a perfect Box.2 in the draw.

The big danger is Japanese raider, Red Desire. The Manhattan Cafe filly produced a blistering turn of foot when taking the Third Round of the Maktoum Challenge and the obvious race for her after that scintillating win is the World Cup itself over C&D. Morning work-watchers out in Meydan have been very impressed with her look and behaviour this week and she rates a big danger to the selection, with super-cool Soumillon getting the leg up.

The travelling Japanese media could have a fantastic night as multiple Group 1 winning filly Buena Vista [not to be confused with recent Pertemps Hurdle winner of the same name] has a huge chance in the Sheema Classic over 1 1/2 miles on the Meydan turf. Buena Vista dished up a beating to World Cup hope Red Desire twice early in 2009 before finishing a nose second [subsequently placed third] to her old foe in the Group 1 'Shuka Sho' at Kyoto in October. She has since won the Group 2 Kyoto Kinen in fine style and can be competitive in this field.

Dubai World Cup night selections:
Race 1 - War Artist / California Flag
Race 2 - Cat Junior / Desert Party
Race 3 - Musir
Race 4 - Rocket Man / Kinsale King
Race 5 - Presvis
Race 6 - Buena Vista / Presious Passion
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando / Red Desire

Good Luck All
Hollywood_G

Weatherman's Reverse Forecast.....

2010-03-19T22:57:00.000Z

I have just returned from an enthralling day at Cheltenham, I drafted a few words on the train on the way home, as emotions ran high! I have not sat down and studied the video of the race yet, so I may be factually incorrect on a few things, but I thought it better to post my thoughts in their raw format....

PS - Although better over 6, Jaconet should have too much early pace in tomorrows 5f Listed Stakes at Lingfield [4.45]. She is far superior from a speed figure perspective, has a good draw in Box.3 and could be value around the 2/1 mark.

And so, my thoughts on the Gold Cup....

Throughout the bleak mid-winter, throughout the snow, the ice and the slips, trips and falls, National Hunt fans have had the thought of the Cheltenham Gold Cup ‘Decider’ [as it has been billed in the racing tabloids] to keep them warm.

The third round of the Heavyweight Bout between Kauto Star and his stable mate Denman was to take place over 26 undulating furlongs deep in the Cotswolds.

Of course there were other runners in the 3.20pm showpiece, but officially they were no match for the two Paul Nicholls inmates, they were there to make up the numbers, to give the owners a nice day out, weren’t they?

Happen somebody should have told Imperial Commander and Paddy Brennan.

I was as firmly in the Kauto Star camp as it was possible to stand.

I had donned a Kauto themed scarf, Kauto themed badge and bright purple pullover, and I wasn’t the only one.

The majority of shades in bloom on course were those of Clive Smith, the quiet, unassuming owner of Kauto Star.

Since Boxing Day and his fourth King George romp, I could not see him beaten.

I, like many others, had expected Denman to win the Aon chase without breaking sweat. His worrying performance there only increased my confidence in Kauto retaining his title.

However, doubts entered my mind prior to the first race.

Rain had been forecast to arrive in the West in the afternoon, but not until around 4pm, a good time after the final bell had rung in the Gold Cup, it appeared even 500/1 shot Cerium would have jumped the last before the heavens opened.

The forecast rain arrived and I was soaked to the skin before 1.15, slightly ahead of schedule. I was worried that it was levelling the Gold Cup playing field.

I talked myself around; Kauto Star had long since proved his stamina and guts when the mud was flying hadn’t he? He would stay a strongly run race, getting his toe in, wouldn’t he? The horse who hadn’t the stamina for a 3m2 slogfest was Imperial Commander; he wouldn’t stay a Gold Cup trip in the Horsebox, would he?

Someone obviously agreed as the 5/6 available on Kauto in the morning had disappeared and 8/11 was the best price in the village.

Although Denman had shortened to around 4/1, the heavy hitters were ploughing into the champ and there was more 4/6 than 8/11 around as the proverbial bell rang to set the horses on their way.

Lord Oaksy’s Carruthers was expected to make the running, but Denman and McCoy surely had to force the pace and attempt to grind out the win in the style of his Round 1 knockout in 2008, forcing Kauto out of his comfort zone and inducing a fencing error or three. Because everyone knows Denman stays longer than the Mother-in-Law, he’ll win a Grand National one day and if Harry Findlay had his way, it would have been last years!

That brutal pace did not ensue and McCoy was content to sit Denman just off the shoulder of Carruthers in 2^nd place, with Kauto seemingly enjoying himself mid pack, stag-like at the fences - so far so good.

Disaster struck at fence eight.

As in all classic movies, there is always a ‘Will he? Won’t he?’ moment during the film. Ever the film star, Kauto had previously saved his customary ‘surprise’ till much later in the feature - usually the final fence - causing widespread popcorn spilling, heart-in-mouth panic for viewers.

However, this year’s twist occurred at a much earlier point, he ploughed through the fence and Ruby worked a miracle to stay in the saddle. Had the rain softened ground played a part in the error? Kautos jumping had seemingly improved recently and he hadn’t touched a twig at Kempton.

Whatever the reason for this latest misdemeanour, he had slipped back through the field, losing around 5 lengths in that split second, and the writing was on the wall.

And still the pace was steady.

Kauto regained his position and he appeared to be travelling well, although not as well as his old foe and stable neighbour who took up the running on the 2^nd circuit and it looked as though the memories of February’s horror show in the Aon had been well and truly forgotten.

Sensing his title slipping away, Ruby had the persuader drawn on Kauto as the field started to string out down the back stretch. Like a true champion he responded, but it was never truly convincing and Ruby was hard at work when a sickening fall ended his chance at the fourth last.

I immediately feared the worst and a cry from behind me of ‘He’s f***ing Dead’ did not help my emotions at that moment. I had envisaged telling the tale of ‘I was there when Kauto Star won his 3^rd Gold Cup’ and I could not bear to utter the words ‘I was there when Kauto Star met his demise’.

The following few seconds appeared eon like but finally the floored champion picked himself up and off the rain sodden canvas and was brought under restraint by his none the worse jockey.

Meanwhile at the top of the hill, McCoy had finally decided to up the ante and attempted to kick on, all the while Paddy Brennan sat motionless alongside him on Imperial Commander.

As McCoy attempted to bring on the pain, it became apparent that Brennan was deflecting the blows on the apparently stamina lacking challenger and he surged to the front with two to jump and careered away to record a 7 length win over a tired Denman, with a further 23 lengths back to Grand National hero Mon Mome in 3^rd.

Understandably, Nigel Twiston-Davies was his usual understated self in the minutes following his first Cheltenham Gold Cup victory, poking fun at the ‘hacks’ who were of the opinion that he wouldn’t stay the trip, and sarcastically proclaiming that he would be aimed at next years Ryanair Chase.

With a little luck, next years race may well be round 4 of the Denman / Kauto battle, and there may even be more pretenders to the throne now that the seemingly untouchables have been usurped by a member of the supporting cast.

I hold my hands up, I got it wrong today, and I gracefully applauded the winner back into the paddock along with a few hundred others.

I wonder how many of those applauding were, like me, wondering what could have been, had the Met Office forecast been a little more accurate.

Hollywood_G

10/1 Hernando still the answer to $10million question...

2010-03-02T19:16:00.000Z

The polytrack was riding on the fast side at Lingfield on Saturday, but that should not take away from a superb performance by Gitano Hernando in the 10f Winter Derby Trial, or Dubai World Cup trial in the case of Marco Botti's colt.

Switched off toward the back of the pack by Kieren Fallon, he made a race-ending move entering the straight and the race was over before it had really began.

Although he was expected to win, even at 90% full fitness, anybody seeing the race could not fail to be impressed with the way the horse quickened. The fact that he won very cosily with his ears pricked in a very very quick time only heightens my enthusiasm for his trip to Dubai at the end of March.

I mentioned in Saturdays blog that the figure of 119 for his win at Wolverhampton was the highest speed rating I had given a horse on a synthetic surface - scratch that!

The fast improving son of Hernando earned a figure of 122 on Saturday, by far the highest figure of this All-Weather season. If he was only 90% fit as Botti claimed, I for one cannot wait to see this horse racing at 100%, and at a best priced 10/1 with most firms, I have gone in again, as that represents real value.

It is worth noting that although the Tapeta surface at Meydan seems to provide no bias to turf or synthetic specialists, of the 44 races run on the surface this carnival, there had been 65 All-Weather race wins from 120 starts (54%) between the winning horses, as opposed to only 59 Turf wins from 227 starts (26%) and 22 wins from 95 starts on a Dirt surface (23%).

This highlights that horses with proven All-Weather form hold a slight edge over other horses, something which is obviously in Gitano Hernandos favour (4 from 4 on synthetics).

The same cannot be said for some of the other names at the head of the market. French raider and last years Prince of Wales stakes winner, Vision D'etat has no 'off-turf' experience, Breeders Cup Classic runner-up Gio Ponti, has 1 win and 1 place to his name from 3 pro-ride starts. This may be slightly insignificant however, as Pro-Ride is the synthetic surface that is most similar to running on turf, as shown by the number of European turf horses winning in the two previous Breeders Cups held on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Of the other horses towards the head of the market, Japanese superstar Espoir City has only Dirt experience to his name. Although that is top class Group 1 form, can he be relied upon to transfer that form to the synthetics?

Henry Cecils raider Twice Over has been the subject of strong praise for his recent workouts prior to heading out to Dubai. His Breeders Cup Classic placing behind Gio Ponti, along with his Champion Stakes win is certainly some of the strongest form on offer, however, he too has had only the 1 try over a 'turf-like' synthethic and was also the subject of rave reviews from gallops watchers throughout last season, subsequently disappointing at the highest level on a number of occasions.

Last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao, as he always seems to be, may be the forgotten horse in the race. The Brazilian bred 7 year old proved his liking for the Tapeta surface when successful in Round 1 of this years Maktoum Challenge and has proved himself a Group 1 horse in the past, most notably when pipping Presvis a head in the Singapore Airlines International in May of last year. Lightly raced since then, connections have had the World Cup in mind for some time and this adaptable horse is sure to be cherry ripe for the occasion.

Unless something creeps out of the woodwork from across the pond (rumours are rife that John Shireffs Breeders Cup Ladies Classic heroine Life is Sweet may be joining the party in Dubai, although again all of her wins have come on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride) then Gitano Hernando must have a huge chance of scooping the pot.

Recommendation:
Gitano Hernando to win Dubai World Cup @ 10/1

Gitano robbery on route to World Cup Glory...

2010-02-26T18:30:00.000Z

Unfortunately there haven been no blog updates for a while for a number of reasons - the dayjob and wedding planning being the two main culprits, along with a part-time diploma.

Something had to give - and m'lady ensured it was not the Wedding that was relegated to the backburner!

In any case, the all-weather racing has been pretty much dour stuff lately, with a number of Hollywood A-Listers turned over in recent weeks. We have had some marginal successes however, none more so than Godolphin's Global City continuing his upward curve out in Dubai, where there have been some very useful performances from British trained horses.
Most notably, from a speed figure perspective - Jeremy Noseda's Leahurst, who is well worth keeping an eye on out there in the last few Carnival meetings.

Tomorrows racing at Lingfield is much better fare, with my big fancy for the $10million Dubai World Cup having his prep-race in the 10f Winter Derby trial.

Gitano Hernando is very good value at 14/1 for the March 27th 10f feature, given his fantastic record on all-weather surfaces, none more so than when breaking the Wolverhampton course record last September, earning a huge figure of 119 - the highest I have ever given any horse on a synthetic surface.

Shipping out to America did not hold any fears a few weeks later as he produced a massive 18/1 shock when beating a number of fancied runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes on Santa Anitas Pro-Ride surface.

Owners Team Valor then had the option of running over the same course and distance in the Breeders Cup classic in November, but decided against it as they felt it would come too soon for the young colt.

The Dubai showpiece is no mean afterthought, especially seeing that regular jockey Kieren Fallon has given up his ride on Luca Cumanis Presvis, who was being aimed at the World Cup also.
That is a tip in itself, as Kieren is as good a judge of a racehorse as anybody and has flown back to England from Dubai for this weekends racing. I would be surprised if the main reason for this wasn't the ride on Marco Bottis fast improving son of Hernando, a horse Kieren clearly has a lot of time for.

He won't be 100% wound up for tomorrows race, as Botti has always stated the main aim is the World Cup itself. However, I will still be very surprised if he does not run out quite an easy winner, and if that does happen, the 14/1 currently on offer will be long gone.

The race prior to the Winter Derby trial is another Class 1 affair, this time over the one turn 6 furlong course.
Flying filly, and course specalist Jaconet will surely take all of the beating over her favoured course and distance. She is definitely one of the fastest horses out of the gate in the UK, and although she won't be allowed an uncontested lead with Bel Cantor drawn in Box 1 I still think she'll blast away and put them all to the sword from a difficult draw in 7. She is a proven Class 1 performer, and Arganil along with a number of others have questions to answer after some below par performances recently.

An interesting runner in the race is Jim Bests Mullionmileanhour, who has not been seen in public since a 3rd place finish in the 2008 Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. A horse Best has always had high hopes for he could be the main danger to the selection, although it will be some performance after a 620 day lay-off.

Recommendations:
Back Jaconet @ 2/1 +
Back Jaconet / Gitano Hernando double if Jaconet is 2/1+
Back Gitano Hernando to win the Dubai World Cup prior to tomorrows race (14/1 @ VCBet and Betfred)

Good Luck all
Hollywood_G

The Dust Settles in the Desert...

2010-01-28T21:34:00.000Z

The first meeting, and the first 10% of the Dubai Carnival is over.

The opening meeting of the $2billion dollar Meydan course was no let-down and produced some excellent equine performances.

All reports of the new Tapeta surface were positive, and the track seemed to ride fairly evenly throughout the night, with winners coming from various pace angles and box positions 13, 1, 5, 11, 7, 11, 5.
If anything, the course seemed to suit those stalking or coming from off the pace, although a definite conclusion cannot be made after only one meeting.

Performances worthy of a second look include the Jeremy Noseda trained Leahurst's (11/8) win in the last race on the card, a 90-105 handicap over 7f. Stalking the pace, he was quickly pushed to the front under Ryan Moore and put the race to bed entering the straight to win going away.

However, perhaps the most impressive win of the night came from the Luca Cumani trained Drunken Sailor (5/1) who was value for more than his 2 1/4 length win over the ex-Cumani inmate Monte Alto. Given a great stalking ride from Kieren Fallon, the big gelding stormed to the front at the top of the straight and is definitely one to keep on the right side of during the carnival. He seemed to enjoy the Tapeta, and as he goes well on the Turf he has plenty of options.

Mike De Kock started the 2010 Carnival as though he meant business with two quick-fire winners courtesy of Raihana (11/4) and Lizards Desire (9/4), both ridden by uber-cool Frenchman Christophe Soumillon and both equally impressive. Lizards Desire got a perfect split on the rail, but he was always holding the challengers at the finish, lead by stablemate King Of Rome.

The first leg of the Maktoum Challenge (often seen as a trial for the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night, but has also been used as a stepping stone to the World Cup itself) went to last years World Cup runner-up Gloria De Campeao (12/1). Sitting just off the pace, the Pascal Bary trained Brazilian wore down the pace setting favourite-Godolphins Midshipman-in the final furlong, and held off the fast finishing Forgotten Voice (Noseda/Moore) for a 1/2 length victory. He will now be aimed at the World Cup in a bid to go one better than last year. Kieren Fallon partnered the multiple winning Saudi Arabian based Consul General. Unfancied in the market, the 25/1 shot looked a likely winner entering the straight, however a 3 month lay-off seemed to take its toll in the closing stages and he finished a tired 3rd, he will strip fitter for this run next time out and is worth a second look.

Elsewhere on the card, Godolphin registered a sole opening night win despite having short priced favourites in 4 of the 7 races. Whispering Gallery (6/4) dictated from the gate to record a comfortable victory in the 10f handicap, with the ultra reliable Halicarnussus holding on for 2nd.

Ted Durcan cajoled John Bests Sir Gerry (25/1) along at the back of the field in the only sprint on the card (6f). As the field entered the straight he quickly gathered momentum and flew down the outside in the closing stages to get up by 1/2 length. He could have been 'well-in' on his handicap debut.

All-in-all a fantastic opening night at a fantastic new venue and although the Dubai economy may well be feeling the pinch, the Carnival seems as though it will be as extravagant and as glamorous as ever this year. The next 90% should be well worth keeping an eye on.

Hollywood_G

Note:
Shadows Lengthen landed the six-timer at Southwell on Tuesday in grand style. A starting price of 11/4 was terrific value and he could go in again if his adept trainer can find him another opportunity.
A wide draw may have cost Imprimis Tagula in the 6 furlong sprint and he could do no more than fill the runner-up berth behind his better drawn rival Tourist. He could be worth chancing if he turns out again in the 'Super 7' qualifier at Lingfield on Saturday if hes not hindered by another wide box position.

Why Do Shadows Lengthen?.....

2010-01-25T21:36:00.000Z

Tomorrows 3.20 at Southwell sees the return of a Hollywood A-Lister searching for a six-timer in the shape of Mick Easterbys Shadows Lengthen.

Up 7lb for his latest win 2 weeks prior to Christmas, the inevitable step up in class occurs on his beloved Fibresand surface, where 5 others will be hoping a half stone increase stops him in his tracks.

His speed figures achieved when allowed to dictate the pace have been fairly consistent, and I can't envisage anything in the field that will take him on for the lead.

Profits Reality and Trachonitis rate as clear dangers on the figures, with the former preferred due to his prominent racing style.

Although Trachonitis did manage to get his nose in front last time out over the Fibresand, the surface was not riding anywhere near as quick as it has been on that occasion, earning a pace figure of only 43. The average since November is 63, which indicates a significant advantage to horses laying up with the early pace.
Up 10lb for his win on Dec 27, the trainers representative indicated following that win that he would be turned out again quickly under a penalty, this was not the case and could indicate the horse had a setback, or maybe the converse - that connections were confident, and more inclined to wait for a more profitable opportunity.

Although only 6 runners, this could be an interesting race. If Shadows Lengthen is allowed an uncontested lead, he will be difficult to peg back.

Elsewhere on the card, Imprimis Tagula bids to make amends for a poor showing last time out, where a change in tactics backfired spectacularly. Forcing a suicidal pace that day, he was cooked 2 furlong from home and the usual patient, stalking tactics could be in store in tomorrows 2.50, a class 2 handicap sprint over 6f.
Course specialist Ingleby Arch will be looking to reverse placings with the selection, following his 9 length drubbing last time out over an inadequate 7 furlong, this 6 will be more to his liking.

Selections:
2.50 Imprimis Tagula
3.20 Shadows Lengthen.

Good Luck All
Hollywood_G

Meydan Calling....

2010-01-24T14:50:00.001Z

This Thursday (28th) sees the start of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival, and the opening of Meydan, the new $billion racecourse in Dubai.

Some racing fans refuse to embrace the Dubai Carnival, but to some, myself included, it is a very exciting series of race meetings. This year has some added spice in the introduction of a synthetic 'Tapeta' track to replace the conventional dirt of previous carnivals held at the now closed Nad Al Sheba racecourse.

Tapeta is a relatively new All Weather surface, reportedly made up of a mixture of "53% sand, 5% rubber and 42% 'secret recipe'" according to the man behind the development, the ex Cheltenham Gold Cup winning trainer Michael Dickinson. http://www.tapetafootings.com/

Tapeta is currently in use at two racetracks in the US, Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Golden Gate Fields in California.

Given the new surface and a new course configuration at Meydan, calculating speed figures for the Dubai Carnival will prove difficult this year, as there are no standard times in which to start from.

In an effort to estimate some standard times at the course prior to the meeting, I have compared the course at Golden Gate Fields with the configuration at Meydan, taking into account the number of turns, the length of the final stretch etc. This is not as difficult as first anticipated, as unlike in the UK where courses can be vastly different, racecourses in the US are mostly flat, left handed oval shaped configurations with very similar standard times. Meydan has been designed in pretty much the same way and is a perfectly flat, left-handed course of around 8 3/4 furlongs, with a run-in of about 2 furlongs - as shown below.

Golden Gate fields is a little different, as there is no chute for the races run over a mile, the oval is around 8 furlongs in circumference, and the run-in is a little shorter than at Meydan, however, it gives us some information at which to start.

After some tedious calculations that I wont go into, using some information provided by the guys at http://www.speedfigures.com/ I have come up with the following standard times for the Tapeta surface at Meydan, that can be used as a guide until there have been a significant amount of races to enable more accurate calculations to be performed.

Tapeta Surface:

Distance (fur) Std Time (Secs)

5 56.0

5.5                    62.5
6                       69.6
7                       82.0
8                       95.0
9                     108.0
9.5                  114.5
10                   121.2
11                   135.0
12                   148.0

It will be possible after the first couple of meetings of the Carnival to ascertain whether my times are way off the mark, but it will at least give me somewhere to start from on Thursday when the action starts in the Desert.

Hollywood_G

What is the opposite of Redemption?...

2010-01-13T20:41:00.000Z

Whatever it is, thats what was achieved by Seek The Fair Land this evening.

Unlike the muddling pace last time out, there seemed no apparent excuses for tonights 4th place showing.

An alarming drift from 11/8 to 5/2 15 minutes prior to the off was not a good sign and the writing was on the wall on the home turn as the pace quickened and Carsons mount was left decidely flat footed.

The pace scenario I envisaged was on the button as Seek The Fair Land stalked a decent clip set by Simple Rhythm and Bravo Echo. Although 16/1 shot Indian Skipper had obviously not read the script as he flew 'Pegasus like' down the outside to pip Bravo Echo right on the bob.

Vintage was disappointing, racing keenly throughout the opening stages and was a spent force in the closing stages.

All in all, not a great outcome for the blog, or perhaps more importantly, my pocket!

I'm of the opinion that the handicapper may now have a grip on Seek The Fair Land, although will reserve full judgement until I have calculated todays speed figures for the Kempton meeting. My gut feeling however, is that the figure will be well below the level of his December 100+ performances.

Hollywood_G

Fair Land Seeking Redemption.....

2010-01-13T18:36:00.001Z

Not a fantastic day for the blog on Saturday as Imprimis Tagula was a shade disappointing in the Super 7 race at Lingfield, attempting to force the pace throughout he faded badly in the final furlong to finish 6th.

A perfect split up the rail opened up for Elna Bright and he managed to hold on from the fast finishing Atlantic Story, who is one to follow on the Polytrack this winter.

The Scoop6 was won by 5 lucky punters, of which I was not one! Although the majority of the horses ran satisfactorily, achieving 5 placed finishes from the 6 selections.

I know its very short notice but tonight’s 6.45 Handicap at Kempton is a chance for A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' to make up for a slightly below-par performance in his last race, where he was beaten a short head in a tactical nightmare.

Being drawn in Box 1 could be soon as some to be a negative, but the stats don't back this up and the outside two stalls at Kempton have a decent record. There is not a natural pacesetter in tonight’s race with the majority of the field hold-up performers, but this should enable young William Carson to manoeuvre the gelding into a decent stalking position behind the other likely pacesetters Bravo Echo and Simple Rhythm.

Two interesting horses for the forecast are Vintage, who looked to need the race last time out at Kempton after a 207 day lay-off and Bravo Echo, who ran against a distinct pace bias in his first appearance for new connections after a 3 month break. Both horses should come on for their respective runs, and may play a part in the finish.

Recommendations:
Back Seek The Fair Land to win @ (a slightly alarming drifting) 9/4 with Bet365
Back Vintage EW @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (small Stakes)
Seek The Fair Land / Vintage / Bravo Echo (Reverse Forecasts)

Good Luck all,

Hollywood_G

Big Freeze puts All-Weather Centre Stage....

2010-01-09T10:52:00.000Z

Happy New Year all, I have been unable to update the blog over the festive period as I nipped across the pond for a 'vacation' on the arctic East Coast of America.

Although it was nice to come back to thaw out in the reasonably warm temperatures here, the UK as ever were ill prepared for the winter weather, and it has wreaked havoc with all sporting events, with Horse Racing no different.

However, one positive to come out of all the postponements is that Channel 4 are covering the two all weather meetings today at Kempton & Lingfield, and the six 'Scoop6' races are all run on synthetics - surely a first?

Although the racing today is pretty low grade stuff, the newly formed 'super 7' 7 furlong championship series begins at Lingfield today. Consisting of 7 (naturally) 'win and you're in' 7 furlong races in the UK, Ireland and France, and culminating in a £50,000 final on Winter Derby day in March, the idea is a great boost to All-Weather racing.

Todays first qualifier is worth £10k to the winner and has naturally attracted a big field of runners, with some all-weather specialists thrown in with a few in form improvers.

Top weight and top of the 'specialist' category is Mick Easterbys Atlantic Story, who is 11 from 19 on synthetic surfaces and more impressively 5 from 9 at Lingfield, with three of his 5 wins over the 7f.
He has not been seen since finishing 3rd over an inadequate 5f at Haydock in September, although he has run well fresh previously.

Marco Botti sends Cermonial Jade here on route to the Dubai Carnival and he has been in decent form recently, with his 3/4 length 3rd to Dohasa in the listed Sunbury Stakes at Kempton being his best performance, and a reproduction of that will be good enough for him to enter the shake up today, however his hold-up style of running may lead to trouble in a big field.

Imprimis Tagula falls into the improver category and he has been in fantastic form, beaten only once in his last five starts, and there was no shame in defeat by the massively in form Seek The Fair Land at Kempton 3 starts ago. His speed figures are good enough for him to be competitive here. He is closely tied in with Ebraam on their lastest Wolverhampton run but I would not expect the placings to be reversed here.

There should be plenty of pace in the race with Flowing Cape and Carcinetto taking each other on up front, and the majority of the field laying up with the pace.

Imprimis Tagula should get a good position from the 5 box and I can see him going well at odds of 15/2 with Stan James, and I will propose a few forecasts and tricasts including Atlantic Story, Ceremonial Jade and Fathsta.

The other scoop6 races are not great but I will have a go based on the top speed figures in each race as follows:

Leg 1 - Imprimis Tagula
Leg 2 - Support Fund
Leg 3 - Tiddliwinks
Leg 4 - Rubenstar
Leg 5 - Tanley
Leg 6 - BookiesIndexGirl

Good Luck all

Hollywood_G

A Christmas Message...

2009-12-22T20:55:00.000Z

No joy yesterday as Seek The Fair Land was totally undone by the lack of pace in the race at Kempton. Sent off at 8/11 he was many punters idea of a good thing but it wasnt to be and he finished runner-up behind L'Hirondelle. The race earned a speed figure of only 74, which is 12 points below the Class Par, and highlights the lack of pace present in the race.

Incidentally there has been a distinct bias towards hold up performers at Kempton over the last few days, the two meetings earning pace figures of only 28 & 26 respectively. This indicates a significant advantage to hold up horses, and may be worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of meetings there - although it may be down in part to the wintery weather we have been enduring recently.

A late addition to the Hollywood A-List is 'Kingsgate Castle', who finished 2nd in yesterdays 4.35 at Kempton. Denied a run up the straight behind a wall of horses, Gay Kelleways colt finished strongly once seeing daylight and would have gone very close given a clear run. He earned an impressive speed figure when winning over C&D on December 16th and should be worth keeping an eye on in Class 5/6 contests.

No All-Weather racing, or any racing at all, until Boxing Day when Kauto Star is the main attraction in the King George VI Chase, bidding to win the race for the fourth year running.
However I will be busy attempting to unearth a more suitable betting proposition on Wolverhamptons polytrack, the same afternoon.

Merry Christmas to all.

Best Wishes
Hollywood_G

Stick with 'Seek The Fair Land' to swell the Xmas coffers....

2009-12-20T22:16:00.003Z

After a decent performance by Spinning to finish 3rd today (SP of 14/1), another Hollywood A-Lister 'Seek The Fair Land' goes at Kempton tomorrow in the 4.05 Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs.

Recording speed figures in excess of 100 in his previous two wins [106 at Lingfield (7f), 102 at Kempton (7f)], Seek The Fair Land is well above the class par of 86, and also well clear of the rest of the field who have failed to record figures above 90 in their careers.

A 6lb penalty for his previous win should not hinder him in this, but he will almost certainly be sent off at prohibitive odds, (RP forecast 10/11) although I will back him at anything above even money.

Hollywood_G

Spinning to turn things around....

2009-12-20T14:52:00.000Z

Yesterday wasnt a great day for the blog with both Sky Crusader and Mister New York failing to make the frame. I'm not a sore loser, and both horses were not good enough on the day, but I was not impressed with the rides given to both horses by jockeys Steve Drowne & George Baker respectively.

In the Quebec Stakes, (which can be watched here (free subscription required): 2.30 Lingfield [19/12/2009]) Steve Drowne had Sky Crusader about 4/5 horses wide throughout the entire race, therefore expending far more energy than required if he had him on the rail or even two wide. The pace scenario I expected collapsed when Plum Pudding failed to press Suits Me for the lead, leaving the latter mentioned able to dictate the pace from the outset. Sky Crusader was bang last entering the straight and finished tailed off as the leader kicked on with Tranquil Tiger just nailing him on the line.

In the last race, I mentioned there may be trouble in running for Mister New York as there was a distinct lack of pace in the race. This situation came to fruition as George Baker edged towards the rail on the home turn, aiming for a non existent gap, and then had to pull the horse up and swing around the whole field on the run in (watch it here: 3.35 Lingfield [19/12/2009]). Mister New York finished strongly but ran out of room to finish 4th. I dont think he would have caught the eventual winner Mildoura, who was given an excellent ride, but I'm convinced he would have finished in the frame without the lack of momentum entering at the top of the lane.

Sundays Racing:
Hollywood A-Lister 'Spinning' goes in todays 4.15 @ Kempton Park, a Class 2 mile Handicap.
David Barron's gelding wil hopefully be given a better ride by Phillip Makin, but again the pace scenario for this race is crucial, as most of the field prefer to be held-up for their run. The only pace I can see in the race is Benandonner and possibly Bravo Echo and Nezami, who are all drawn high.

Spinning will be held up at the rear of the field along with likely favourite Falcativ, son of the mighty Falbrav, who has a Lingfield win to his name on his previous Polytrack start where he earned a speed figure of 93+, falling a few lengths short of todays par of 101, although he may improve for that run, and didnt seem fully extended for the win. He his 3 from 3 on artificial surfaces.

Spinnings last two wins on the Wolverhampton Poly have been achieved over the extended mile, registering speed figures of 104 & 111 respectively. Elna Bright is another 100+ horse in the field, with a 107 for his last win over Lingfields 7 furlongs, and he is respected.

Wednesdays headliner 'Aeroplane' is turned out again quickly after his 6th place finish in the Sunbury Stakes over a furlong shorter than todays race. He didnt seem to get home over the 7, and I cant see the extra furlong being in his favour.

Verdict:
If Makin can keep Spinning out of trouble from his hold up position, he should be in the shake-up today, with the main challenge coming from Elna Bright and Falcativ. Stand Guard could be the best of the rest.

Spinning EW @ 8/1
Combination Forecasts / Tricasts - Spinning / Elna Bright / Falcativ

Quebec Stakes preview...

2009-12-19T13:55:00.000Z

After all the National Hunt abandonments, all-weather racing takes centre stage on Terrestrial TV this afternoon with racing from Lingfield Park.

The highlight of which is the Quebec Stakes over 10f due off at 2.40.

The favourite for the race is Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger, a winner over Course and Distance exactly 4 weeks ago. He earned a speed figure of 103 for that race, beating the well regarded Presvis into second on his only polytrack start. Although one thing of note is Presvis was not cherry ripe on that occasion, using the race merely as a stepping stone to the Hong Kong Cup, in which he finished 3rd.
Tranquil Tiger also appears to be best when fresh, and the four week break may just not be enough.

The Irish raider Settigano is interesting after his win on the Dundalk polytrack last month, however he has never won over a distance this far, and this son of Sadlers Wells may just be found out in the final furlong if the pace is a strong one.

Making that pace will surely be the Richard Hannon trained Plum Pudding, who may also be taken on by Suits Me. With those two likely to cut each others throats up front, the race could be set up for a deep closer.

Wille Muir's Saphiras Fire fits into this category, she has been running admirably in defeat recently, earning a big speed figure of 107 when 3rd to Les Fazzani at Kempton on her latest start over 12 furlong.

However, the horse I like in the race is French raider Sky Crusader. Available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes this horse began life in the UK with Roger Ingram before shipping to Europe to become something of an All-Weather specialist in Germany under Christian Von Der Recke and more recently in France under the guidance of Marcus Nigge. He ran well on his most recent visit to the UK finishing 4th behind Kirklees in a Group 3 at Kempton in September, earning a speed figure of 101. He has since recorded a fairly easy listed victory at Deauville and is clearly in good heart. I anticipate him sitting off the pace towards the rear of the field while the front runners go at it, and taking aim in the straight - incidentally 39% of races at Lingfield since 1st November have been won by runners coming from well off the pace, this statistic bodes well for Sky Crusader, and he is the reccommendation @ 9/1 Each-Way (2 places).

Elsewhere on the card, Mister New York is the clear speed figure pick in the last race. This race has a Class Par of 86, with Mister New York bettering that figure in 2 of his last 3 starts. The pace angle of this race is less clear cut however, with the majority of the field employing hold-up tactics and only Lyras Daemon a confirmed pace setter. With so many horses held up, there could be traffic problems entering the straight and Mister New York could be trapped on the rail from Box.2, however if a split appears he should have the speed to get through it. He is an each way proposition at a general 4/1.

Hollywood_G

Aeroplane to take flight @ Kempton...

2009-12-16T07:32:00.000Z

Inheritor did the blog proud on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton.
The race panned out pretty much exactly as expected, although the horse I did think would make the running Laafet, missed the kick completely.
However Tom Eaves managed to stalk the pace and get a decent rail position to hit the front just after the home bend and hold on from the fast finishing CanCanStar.

This week is quite an important week for all-weather racing in the UK, with two listed contests taking place. Saturday see's Henry Cecils Tranquil Tiger bidding to follow up his recent win in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield, and tonight sees Irish Raider 'Dohasa' bidding to retain Kemptons Sunbury Stakes for Ireland, after Duff's win in the race last year.

Tonights race has an intriguing look to it, with a few horses in with a shout.

The Contenders:
Obviously 'Dohasa' is the form pick after finishing runner-up in three Group races in Ireland. He is proven on the polytrack as proved by his win at Dundalk, where he earned a big speed figure, winning fairly readily.
He is an admirably consistent horse, and it will be no surprise to see him performing with credit out in Dubai in the coming months, as he has done the last two years.

'Aeroplane' was once touted by trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam as a potential superstar. He has lost his way rather over the years but showed he still had potential by hacking up in two claiming races on the Polytrack. These were obviously intended as confidence boosters but he acheived decent speed figures without fully asserting himself. These wins along with a change in yard to David Evans could work the oracle. He is drawn wide but is generally held-up off the pace anyway, so this shouldnt be too much of an inconvenience.

'Black Dahlia' slammed her rivals by 6 lengths over C&D last time out. Improving to a speed figure around Class 2 level, and again was probably value for a little higher figure. I can't see her being good enough to win, but she is clearly thriving at the minute and could run into a place.

As the lone speed in the race 'Dunelight' is very interesting.
He is arguably the classiest of this bunch, and has been campaigned in Group Races throughout his career, finishing only 2 3/4 lengths behind Paco Boy in the 2008 running of the Lennox at Goodwood. His only racecourse appearance since then was last month on this course, where he bounced out in front and didnt quite get home over the mile. He should strip fitter for that and now back to 7 furlongs should not be allowed too much rope in front, as although Kempton does not generally favour speed horses, he could just hold on in front. The draw has not been kind to him, but he should be able to cross over and gain the lead from Box.11.

Kieren Fallon rides 'Ceremonial Jade' for the bang-in-form Marco Botti yard. He couldnt live with the blistering Jaconet last time out, but neither could the rest of the field. That was his first run for 6 months and he did run well in this race last year. His speed figures are up there with the best tonight.

All in all its a tricky race. Given the likely pace scenario with Dunelight forcing a strong pace, and plenty of these stalking, it could be set up for a horse coming from off the pace. Ceremonial Jade will be held up, but the horse I like at a very fair price is 'AEROPLANE'. His two recent runs look to have done him the world of good and if his jockey doesnt have him too far back and give him too much to do, he could put up a decent fight to the finish. I would actually prefer to see Jamie Spencer back up top tonight, as Aeroplane is the sort of hold up performer he excels with.
Currently a 14/1 shot with various firms, he is the bet tonight, although I may also play some combination forecasts with the above mentioned horses.

Hollywood_G

Shadows Lengthening winning run....

2009-12-12T12:04:00.000Z

Shadows Lengthen recorded his five-timer yesterday -and his third Southwell win in 6 days - but he had to dig deeper than previous runs to hold off the persistent Stormy Summer by a neck.

Somewhat amazingly, and maybe as a precautionary measure, he was entered again today in Southwells 1.10, but has now been withdrawn.

Surely, Mick Easterby will now give him a Christmas break before stepping him up in Class in the New Year?

My one fancy today is 'Inheritor' in Wolverhamptons 8.50. Brian Smarts gelding ran well here over 7 furlongs to earn a speed figure of 100, just going down by 3/4 of a length to Caprio.
However, the track was favouring the hold-up horses that day, earning a Pace figure of only 36, and Inheritor was close-up to the pace throughout.
Todays race is a drop in class and a step-up in trip to 8 1/2 furlongs, if Laafet goes off in front as expected, Tom Eaves should be able to drop Inheritor in from Box4 before striking late.
At 3/1 at numerous bookies he is worth a bet to hold of the in-form Just Bond and Justcallmehandsome.

Hollywood_G

Shadows Lenghten ready for a five-timer....

2009-12-10T21:55:00.001Z

Hollywood A-Lister 'Shadows Lengthen' bids for his third Southwell win in a week in the last race tomorrow.

He recorded his best speed figure of 99 when winning on Tuesday, and the Mick Easterby 3-year-old will surely be too good in this Class 6 apprentice handicap, even allowing for a 12lb penalty.
He wasnt stopping at the end of his recent races, and the step up in distance to 12 furlongs should not hold any fears for this front running Dansili bay.

He will surely go off at prohibitive odds - Racing Post forecast is 1/2 - and I will be watching rather than playing, prefering to wait for the chance of better value when he inevitably steps up in class in the New Year.

Hollywood_G

Southwell Snaps...

2009-12-09T21:01:00.000Z

Just a quick post to add a few pictures taken on Saturday at Southwell, and to add that Shadows Lengthen followed up Saturdays victory with a facile success yesterday - as a 30/100 shot should.
Although I did manage a little 8/11 about 20 minutes before the off, which it turns out was a very fair price.

Saturdays Eyecatchers:

Brigadoon & Fallon.

Tried over the straight 5f but looked to need at least 6f, worth another try.

Doctor Zhivago.

Lovely looking colt, ran green throughout but when the penny finally dropped ran on to win well and record a decent debut speed rating of 77.

Dynamic Idol.

Imposing Dynaformer Colt, pick of the paddock.

Ran on well to finish 4th behind Doctor Zhivago on debut and worth a place in the notebook.

Lucky Punt.

Quickly turning into a course specialist and recorded an easy success.

He earned that drink...

Shadows Lengthen.

Made all to bag his hat-trick in a canter.

Followed up under 6lb penalty in a similar fashion yesterday.

Sun, sand & 100/1 shocks!

2009-12-08T09:30:00.000Z

Luckily the forecast rain in Nottinghamshire did not rear its ugly head on Saturday and I managed to attend the pre-midday starting Southwell meeting.

Jackie Kiely: my selection in the first race was all the rage in the market, however he was not alone as there had been quite a lot of (obviously) smart money in the morning for Merrion Tiger who hacked up by an eased down 7 lengths. Greg Fairley even afforded himself a cheeky glance over the shoulder at the 1/2 furlong pole, but there was no danger from the one paced Jackie Kiely and Altos Reales who were battling for minor honours only.

A closer finish in the ensuing 2-year-old sprint over the straight 5 as Point to Prove improved on his Wolverhampton run to pip my selection Lucky Mellor in the final 50 yards. However, on closer inspection, the form is to be treated with caution as the time was the slowest of the day and over a second slower than the Class 6 juvenile sprint that followed.

R Woodys's speed figures in his previous two races were 22 and 1. Hardly inspiring reading and even the most optimistic punter could not have seen any promise in his 9 length defeat at Wolverhampton some 79 days earlier.
However, all was not as it seemed and only the trained eye would have noticed R Woody was somewhat lighter in the nether regions than his last racecourse appearance. Still described as a colt in the official racecard the gelding operation obviously worked the oracle as he blasted home @ 100/1 to silence a stunned crowd, most of whom held a ticket bearing the name of the well backed favourite Brigadoon, who disappointed under one K. Fallon, to me, he looked all the world like he needed at least one extra furlong.

I was looking forward to the next race and two debutants with hot pedigrees.
Pick of the paddock was the imposing ‘Dynamic Idol’ a huge Dynaformer colt, and apparently, according to course commentator Graham Goode – the apple of his trainers eye.

Dynamic Idol was well-backed into favouritism ahead of the other well-bred colt - Doctor Zhivago, and it was the Mark Johnston trained grey that came out on top in the final furlong to win impressively, despite running green throughout.
Dynamic Idol is worth another chance however, as he was bustled along early, and had to be jostled around the home bend, he finished a staying on 4th and looks as though he’d learn from the experience, the two are definitely worthy of a place in the notebook.

The next race was a Class 2 sprint over 6 furlongs: the race of the day.

My selection: course specialist Ingleby Arch was supported, though not to the tune of the favourite Felday, who duly obliged under a strong ride from Steve Drowne, getting on top in the final furlong to beat Ingleby Arch by a half-length, with a further half-length back to Indian Skipper, the three pulling well clear of the rest.

After five races I’d not managed a winner, but the placepot ticket was still alive and my nap of the day was coming up.

Lucky Punt had speed figures far in excess of the rest of the field and with only Luberon rated a danger; he was a confident banker selection in the last leg of the placepot. In great form with 4 course wins from his last 6, Lucky Punt was well fancied by the punters on course and my hope for 15/8 was highly unlikely to come to fruition as the biggest price on offer in the village was a measly 11/8 - and that didn’t last long.
As the chestnut stormed clear on the turn for home, the 11/8 looked like great value and so it proved as Fergus Sweeney eased him down to record a comfortable 5 length win, value for almost double that.

So, the placepot was won, but with plenty of fancied runners making the frame, paid only a measly £31.

Any return is better than nothing and there was still time for a decent bet on the in-form Shadows Lengthen in the 11-furlong handicap.

The Mick Easterby runner proved his well being with the easiest win of the day, making all to win in a canter-much to the appreciation of the crowd who were still braving the dipping temperatures. He certainly is in rude health at the minute, and is worth following for odd-on backers in this afternoon’s 1.30 contest over the same course and distance.

His adjusted speed figure for Saturday’s race (94) is more than good enough for him to be competitive in Class 4 events, and today sees him trying to make it four-in-a-row, in a class 6 handicap, where a 6lb penalty is unlikely to hinder his chances.

I succumbed to the elements and made my exit prior to the last race, in which Saute was a ready winner after tracking the pace throughout.

All in all - an informative day: with Doctor Zhivago, Lucky Punt and Shadows Lengthen all taking the eye. I will follow the three over the winter, along with Dynamic Idol and I am hopeful of a few bold shows.

It will also be interesting to see where R Woody turns up next, and whether he can replicate his much improved performance.

There was a pronounced pace bias in existence on the day, with all races won by a horse making, or laying close up to the pace. I awarded the meeting a Pace figure of 71, which indicates a significant bias to prominent racers.

Southwell Speed Figures (5/12/09)
Going allowance +16
Race PAR Adjusted
1 75 68 (-7)
2 73 56 (-17)
3 63 75 (+12)
4 70 77 (+7)
5 101 93 (-8)
6 94 95 (+1)
7 83 94 (+11)
8 75 85 (+10)

Early Weekend Thoughts....

2009-12-04T19:42:00.000Z

Southwell - Saturday 5th December

I am hopeful of attending Southwell tomorrow - weather permitting - so I thought I would post up a few initial thoughts as I have had a quick look through the cards today. I will post a full review if I do manage to get there, along with some photographs hopefully.

First impressions are that it could be a favourites day.

We have a couple of course specialists in attendance, and due to the idiosyncracies of Fibresand, previous winners at Southwell will be popular with the betting public, which is to be expected.

The 1.50 is the race of the day, a Class 2 sprint over 6f.

The well regarded Kevin Ryan inmate 'Espirit De Midas' is apparently well fancied, but he will have to overcome a layoff and a bad draw in box 1. His latest speed figures are a few points short of the standard required here and he has no Fibresand experience, if his price gets short enough, he could be lay material.

Top of the figures is 'Confuschias', although again, he has no Fibresand experience. He does however go well on slow turf, which is a plus around Southwell.
Next on my list is the course specialist 'Ingleby Arch', who has 6 wins from 10 starts over C&D.
According to my data, 53% of races at Southwell this season have been won by horses who raced on the pace early on, there isnt a great deal of early pace in this race, but if the Barron gelding can get out quick from his draw in Box 2, he can show his turn of foot and his liking for the surface to put these to the sword. I will probably play him against the field, dependent on how he looks in the preliminaries.

The master that is Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on another course winner, 'Turn on the Style', he could be the one to give my selection the most to do.

The 1.20 is a fairly poor quality maiden affair, with my interest in the race focusing on two newcomers.
The Mark Johnston trained 'Doctor Zhivago' and the $250,000 Dynaformer colt 'Dynamic Idol', who should love the surface given his American pedigree.
The speed figures posted by the runners in the race who have competed in public are relatively poor with only 'Whitby' showing a glimpse of promise, therefore this race should not take too much winning and I will be disappointed if one of the newcomers does not oblige.

A few other fancies according to my Speed Figures are as follows:
(I will not be playing in every race, but will watch with interest to see how my figures stack up, along with spotting any bias that may exist).

11.50 - Jackie Kiely / Swords
12.50 - Going French / Brigadoon
2.20 - Lucky Punt (clear top, and will be a decent bet @ around 15/8, 2/1)
2.50 - Shadows Lengthen, although there is little between him, Benedict Spirit and Bosamcliff - a tricky affair.

Good Luck if you are playing this weekend.

Hollywood_G

The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 3]

2009-12-03T18:27:00.001Z

Weight (w) = Mass (m) x Acceleration (g - gravity)

Somebody famous once said "I keep trying to lose weight, but it keeps finding me again"!

The entire world is obsessed with weight, from super skinny size 0 models to the gargantuan sized McDonalds residents that struggle to leave their bed, and the world of horse racing is no different.

Weight plays a large part (no pun intended) in horse racing, as around half of races run are 'handicaps', where the better horses carry more weight than lesser rated opponents. (Each horse has an Official Handicap Rating, click through to http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp for more details)

How much a few extra lbs really matters to a 1000lb+ racehorse is a subjective question, and there are many views on this subject.

For instance, hardened, old school 'handicappers / horseplayers' (to coin an American phrase) will not hear of any suggestions that weight does not play a part in the outcome of a horse race, while Speed Figure afficionados such as Nick Mordin and Andrew Beyer are of the opposite view.

As a speed figure convert I do not take weight into account when calculting my speed ratings on the all weather, or any flat race for that matter.
If the winner of a race over 5 furlongs earns an adjusted speed figure of 100, the second horse finishing 1 length in rear will earn a speed figure 3.5 points inferior whether he carried 14lbs more weight or 14lbs less weight than the winner.

It is my opinion that, when deciding on my betting strategy for a race, I would rather play an in-form horse with the higher Speed figures in the book, than an out-of-form horse who is subsequently dropping down the handicap
and carrying less weight than the last time he won a race - the horses allocated weights are adjusted for a reason!

However, I do believe weight to be an important factor over the longer distances associated with National Hunt racing.
The invariably bad weather that is associated with Winter racing over obstacles, leads to extremes of going which must have an effect over the marathon distances involved under this code, although it is still possible to carry much more weight than your opponents and still win a race over 26 furlongs in bad ground - just ask Denman....

The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 2]

2009-11-29T15:12:00.005Z

[cog 2] Class Pars and Going allowances.

Pars.

As discussed in the previous blog, we now know how to calculate a RAW speed figure dependent on the time taken for the winner to win a given race.

However, this figure is not the one we award the horse. Before we assign a figure for the race we need to calculate how big a part the racing surface played in the time of the race.

The way we do this is to ‘estimate’ how fast each race should have been run. This is similar in a way to assigning a ‘Par’ to a Golf course, the par being the amount of shots it should take to complete the 9 or 18 holes.

It is fairly easy to assume that Group Class horses, i.e. the best horses in the World, will run a lot faster than horses competing for a Class 7 event at Wolverhampton on a Friday night.

But how much faster?

In his excellent book, Mordin On Time (available via Aesculus Press) Nick Mordin details how over the years he has calculated that a race for older (3year old +) Listed Class animals will be run approximately 3.6 seconds slower than the standard time for every mile of the race.

For example: the previous blog states that the standard time for 1 mile (1760yds) at Kempton is 95 seconds.

A listed class race therefore is estimated to be take 98.6 seconds to complete.
(95 seconds + 3.6 seconds for every mile) = 98.6 seconds.

A similar calculation is performed for a race over 2 miles. The standard time for 2 miles at Kempton is 201.2 seconds. Therefore the estimate for a listed class race is (201.2 + (3.6 x 2 miles)) 208.4 seconds.

Using the formula detailed previously to work out a RAW speed figure awards the above two performances a rating of 112 and 114 respectively.

Nick also states that races confined to 2 year olds, 3 year olds or Filly/Mare only races will be run slower than the 3.6 seconds per mile.

The following table details the estimated seconds per mile slower each race should be run for all class of races in the UK.

Note: The prediction for a class 1 race over 6 furlongs is worked out as follows:

6 furlongs = 0.75 of a mile. Therefore 3.6*0.75 = 2.7.
A Class 1 race over 6 furlongs is estimated at 2.7 seconds above standard.

A RAW speed calculation much like the previous section can be performed using the above table to indicate a figure for any race.

Performing the calculation using the standard time for every racecourse in the UK, gives a PAR time figure for every distance at any course for any type of race.

These ensuing figures averaged out, result in the following PAR figures.

Following a few years of using the figures I estimate that Group Class races (above Class 1 listed) are run a few points quicker for each Group Class, i.e. Group 3s are generally quicker than Class 1, Group 2s quicker than Group 3 etc.

Therefore, an updated PAR comparison table looks like the one below:

Going Allowances.

We can now estimate using the table above what Speed Figure each race run in the UK should achieve based on the horses that are running in it.

For example, yesterday (Saturday 28th Nov 2009) the 2.15 “Jacksbridge Handicap” at Lingfield Park was a Class 2, 10f race for older horses (3 YO+).

According to the table above, the Par figure for a race of this nature is 101. For the winner to achieve a figure of 101, the race should be won in 127.3 seconds.

However, the winner ‘Bound By Honour’ won the race in a time of 125.27 seconds, earning a RAW speed figure of 118, some 17 points above the Par time.

This +17 points may indicate that Bound By Honour is a Group 3 horse in a Class 2 race, or it may be due to the racing surface speeding up the horse enabling a quicker time to be attained.

The way in which this argument is settled is to compare the estimated PAR times and the achieved RAW times for the rest of the days results at the same course, as follows.

The above table shows that the surface at Lingfield yesterday was very fast and speeding up horses by an average of 36 points each race.
The going allowance is therefore said to be +36.

The original RAW figure for Bound By Honours performance was 118, however this is now adjusted by subtracting the Going Allowance of 36, resulting in final speed figure of 82, some 19 points below the Par of 101 - hardly the group 3-class performance it looked originally. In actual fact the PAR table shows this performance to be more akin to an average class 5 event.

Obviously other important factors such as pace etc may have played a part in the fairly poor time, (Pace will be explored in another blog) but from my calculations there was no real pace bias yesterday at Lingfield, all of the races were won by horses up with the pace throughout. I would be wary of the future worth of the form of this race.

It can be seen from the comparison table that the best performance of the day was in Race No.2 - a Class 5 event for 2 year olds over 6 furlongs.
This race was awarded a speed figure of 83, some 13 points above the PAR of 70. The winner ‘Tenacestream’ performed well on his debut to earn a figure that would put him around Class 3 level in his age group.

He could be worth watching when turned out again, as he should improve for his first run.

This concludes the basic mechanics behind the calculation of speed figures.

The calculations shown can be performed for every race worldwide, as long as you have an accurate set of standard times and Par Times from which to work with.

There are other aspects that could influence the figures; such as the pace of a race or changes in weather conditions part way through a meeting. These variables may lead to minor adjustments, and will be explored in later blogs.

The mechanics of Speed Figures [cog 1]

2009-11-28T11:59:00.002Z

Standard Times.

The general rule of speed figures is similar to the majority of things in life, be it career, relationship or otherwise – “the more you give, the more you get”.

To achieve an accurate data output from the formulae behind the speed figures, you need an accurate data input.

Calculation of speed figures can seem tedious to some, but the effort put into the calculations definitely pays off when you spot a 10/1 shot with much higher speed figures than the rest of the field.

Calculation of figures starts with a set of ‘Standard Times’, for each race distance at each Racecourse.

The standard times below are the ones I have used for a few years (thanks to Nick Mordin @ www.nickmordin.com) for races run at Kempton Park; I have similar figures for any distance at every racecourse in the UK and Ireland.

These times represent the fastest it should be possible for a racehorse to run from A (starting stalls) to B (winning post), given perfect racing ground and no tail/headwind.

Dist(yds) (miles) (furlongs) Std. Time (secs)
1100 0 5 57.7
1320 0 6 70
1540 0 7 82.3
1760 1 8 95
2200 1 2 121.3
2420 1 3 134.6
2640 1 4 147.9
2860 1 5 161.3
3520 2 0 201.2

Now, it is necessary to assign an arbitrary speed figure to the times above.

If a horse runs 5 furlongs at Kempton in 57.7 seconds, the RAW (not adjusted for the state of the going) speed figure will be the assigned figure, be it 100, 150, 175 or even 0.
Personally, I use a rating of 150 to indicate a horse has achieved a RAW figure equal to the Standard Time.

What RAW speed figure would a horse earn that ran the 5 furlongs in 58.7seconds?

Well, 58.7 seconds – 57.7 seconds = 1 seconds.
(1 second is the equivalent of 5 x 1-fifth (0.2) of a second, where 1-fifth of a second is generally thought of to be the equivalent of 1 horse length).

Therefore a horse running the 5 furlongs in 1 second above standard - 58.7 seconds, should earn a RAW speed figure of 145 right? 150 – 5 (for 5 lengths or 5 1-fifths of a second) – not quite.

The value of a fifth of a second (1 length) is dependent on the distance of the race; this can be easily understood if you think of the equivalent in Human Athletic terms.

· The current world record for the 100 metres sprint is 9.58 seconds recorded by Usain Bolt.*
· The current world record for the 10,000 metres is 1577.53 seconds recorded by Kenenisa Bekele.*

* correct at time of going to press (Nov 2009)

In my day (read school days!) in the 100 metres I could probably get within 6 seconds of Usain Bolts record time.

Do I think I could get within 6 seconds of Kenenisa Bekele’s record time in the 10,000 metres – not even on a bike!

Which is the better performance? Obviously getting within 6 seconds of the record for the longer race is much superior, and should be rated accordingly.

This is similar for equine performance, the merit of a horse’s time performance has got to be dependent on the distance of the race.

The way we can assess the importance of a fifth of a second (1 length) at differing distances is to perform the following calculation.

This calculation is performed in two steps:

A = 1 / (Standard Time (secs) x 5)
B = A x 1000.

The standard time for Kempton over five furlongs is 57.7 seconds or 288.5 fifths of a second. One fifth of a second therefore represents 1/288.5 of the race, or 0.034% of the entire race. If we move the decimal point over (i.e. 0.0346x1000) we can then use 3.46 points (3.5 rounded) to indicate 1 length over 5 furlongs.

A time of 58.7 seconds, (1 second or 5 fifths/second above standard) for 5 furlongs at Kempton earns a RAW speed figure of 150-(3.5x5) = 133 (rounded).

This formula can be used to calculate a RAW speed figure for any distance at any racecourse, as long as you have a standard time from which to begin.

In the next blog I will discuss Class Par Figures for the various class of race run here in the UK, how the Pars can be used to estimate how fast each race should be run in comparison to the Standard Time, and the calculation of a Going Allowance - which indicates how much the racing surface is affecting the horses in a race.

The difficult first post...

2009-11-24T20:25:00.004Z

I have been toying with the idea of a blog for a while now, probably about two years late I suppose but hey...

The purpose of my blog is to share my various musings regarding All Weather Horse Racing in the UK and possibly during the 'big' meetings where the UK is represented (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup etc) I will venture- unfortunately, hypothetically-to foreign climes and explore the goings on outside of these shores.

So: "Why All weather racing? surely some of the lowest standard of horse racing in the UK right?"
Well, I suppose in prize money terms then yes, but its not all about the money is it? ....is it?....

A few years ago I started to compile Speed Figures for all Flat races run in the UK. The aim of which was to use as another piece of useful information to aid the solution of the huge handicapping puzzle.
The figures are created using a composite of methods adopted by the 'experts', the UKs very own Nick Mordin (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Nick%20Mordin)
and Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?_encoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Andrew%20Beyer).

I will delve into the mechanics of the production of these Figures in a later blog, for now it is sufficient for me to tell you that these figures seem to be more reliable, more successful and more profitable for races run on the All-Weather Tracks in the UK - Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Wolverhampton & Southwell. (Great Leighs was not around long enough to get a proper grasp of the figures).

Obviously, following more success for the figures at these courses I began to take more of an interest in the All-Weather side of racing, and that is where the idea of this blog came from, an opportunity to share my knowledge, thoughts and quite possibly the many rants at certain jockeys, along with the figures I produce and the opportunity to share some winning wagers.

I aim to update the blog on a weekly basis - other commitments permitting - with a write-up of what I, along with my speed figures, believe to be the single All-Weather 'performance of the week', along with any other related information which I feel may be beneficial.

I've now rambled on for far too long, so I will sign off and concentrate on my first 'performance of the week' blog, thanks for reading and may all of your bets be winning ones...

Hollywood_G