Could pace provide the answer to $10million question?

The 2011 Dubai Carnival draws to a conclusion Thursday night at Meydan, with the meeting serving as an interesting prelude to the big night on March 26th.

Godolphin's stranglehold on this years carnival shows no signs of relenting, with a total of 23 horses entered across the seven races, highlight of which is the G2 Zabeel Mile on the Turf at 17.45 (GMT).

Llanfranco has opted to ride last years impressive Royal Hunt Cup winner Invisible Man, in preference to Australian G2 winner Caymans. Slightly disappointing in their respective starts out in the Desert, both need to step up on recent form to be competitive in what looks a decent contest. 

My idea of the winner is Marco Botti's Fanunalter. This son of Falbrav ran a fine race on his Dubai debut behind subsequent Al Fahidi Fort runner-up Raihana, and can improve on that performance to get the better of the ex-Pat Eddery trained G1 Gran Criterium victor Hearts of Fire. Now under the care of Qatari Ibrahaim Al Malki - now responsible for Qatar International winner Joshua Tree - he steps back to a mile following an improved effort in the 9f G2 Jebel Hatta behind Wigmore Hall. Qatar based jockey Adrie De Vries takes the ride.

After a too-bad-to-be-true performance on his Tapeta debut, JJ The Jet Plane reappears back on a more suitable turf surface hoping to book a ticket to the Al Quoz sprint on the World Cup card. Again conceding weight all round due to his lofty rating of 122, he may prove susceptible to something lurking lower in the weights. Doug Watson has had a somewhat disappointing season by his recent high standards, however Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's ex-William Haggas inmate Musaalem was not fully exerted behind War Artist three weeks ago and following a 3lb drop in the Handicap, could be running on strongly at the finish of the 6f event.

Godolphin's Spring of Fame was no match for the impressive Bold Silvano last time out in Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge, but should find the 9.5f 100-116 Tapeta Handicap within his grasp. If he wins impressively enough, he may still be aimed at the World Cup itself. 

That brings me nicely onto the Dubai World Cup and as the field is starting to take shape, I have some initial thoughts on the three main protagonists for the $10million prize. 

*Where prices are quoted they are the best currently available.

Twice Over - Henry Cecil *7-2.

Often bracketed as slightly below Top-Class, Twice Over holds the prestigious accolade of being the last ever winner of Newmarket's Champions S. following his back-to-back success in the October show-piece. Campaigned a little differently in this seasons quest for the World's biggest prize, he arrived in Dubai much earlier than when attempting the race last year and showed an impressive turn of foot to land his prep race in Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge over the World Cup distance. Although not a scintillating final time (in fact the slowest over the distance at this years carnival), Twice Over did record the fastest final quarter of any race above 8f to be run at Meydan this season, covering the 400m in 23.06, and the final furlong in an ultra-quick 11.77. 

Bold Silvano - Mike De Kock *5-1.

The South African 'hype' horse coming into the Carnival, I blogged HERE anticipating his impressive Meydan debut and HERE following his facile victory. In the aftermath of that victory - when apparently not fully primed - he was instilled the clear favourite for the World Cup. However, he has since suffered a slight setback and missed a potential clash with Twice Over in Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge last week due to a bruised foot. De Kock does not seem too perturbed by the setback, telling the Racing Post..

"It is just a bruised foot, nothing serious and I would think he will just miss a few days. The short break may actually be a blessing as we have been keeping him busy in the mornings. He will now have to go to the World Cup without another run but that is no great issue as he was very fit and well before this minor setback."

Cape Blanco - Aidan O'Brien *6-1.

Having not had a runner in Dubai since 2005, mainly due to a well-publicised Coolmore/Godolphin spat, Aidan O'Brien surprised fans of racing with the announcement that last seasons Irish Derby and Champion S. winner Cape Blanco, along with three-year-olds Master of Hounds and Alexander Pope had been entered in the World Cup and UAE Derby respectively. 

Ultra-impressive when landing the Irish Champion, Cape Blanco set a torturous pace that day and, after increasing the pain entering the straight, was kept to task by Seamus Heffernan with Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over treading water in behind.   

 

In a further twist regarding Cape Blanco's participation in the 10f event, it has recently been announced that Mrs Fitri Hay, wife of former senior BP executive Jim Hay has purchased a 'substantial' share in the four-year-old.

Mrs Fitri Hay - new owner of significant %
of DWC hope Cape Blanco.

The Dubai-based Hay's are well-known within the Thoroughbred racing industry with horses in training with Paul Cole, Stan Moore and Tom Tate in the UK.

Full details of the deal have not been divulged, although it has been confirmed the horse will run in the Hay's Pink & Green colours thiscoming season.

Early race thoughts:

Anticipating the pace of the race could prove the key ingredient in determining where in the World the prize will reside for the following 12 months.

Last year's World Cup fractions of 26.72, 25.42, 25.79, 24.04, 22.87 indicates that Gloria de Campeao set a steady early pace and stepped on the gas between the 6-8f point of the race to  just hold on in a bunched, but very fast finish. (The final furlong was covered in 11.24 secs).

This kind of scenario would seem ideal for Twice Over, given the change in gear he showed in his prep race and the fact that he ran a sub 12-sec final furlong, without being overly extended. He has the ability to quicken off a slow pace and given a better draw than last year, has an excellent chance of landing the spoils.

It is unclear what pace scenario would be the ideal for Bold Silvano, given the muddling affair apparent on his Dubai debut. With no obvious pacesetter, Soumillon decided to dictate his own relatively slow pace before increasing the tempo some 600m from the wire. (23.47 final 1/4). Again, showing the ability to quicken off a slow pace without maximum exertion.

Unlike Twice Over, stamina shouldn't be an issue, given that he won the G1 Durban July over an extra furlong in his homeland. Theoretically therefore, he shouldn't be too inconvenienced by a stronger pace, although stamina can soon evaporate given too strong an early pace.

The lack of sectional timing in the UK and Ireland hinders pace analysis of Cape Blanco's past performances somewhat. With the aid of video footage and a stopwatch it is possible to come up with some very crude measurements. It is also difficult to safely estimate ground conditions on turf and rail re-alignment throws yet another spanner in the works.

However, from the Irish Champion S. replay above, I hand-timed Cape Blanco's final 1/4 mile to be in the region of 27.20. This is slow, simply due to the very fast early fractions set by the son of Galileo. Given a final time of 2:03.89 for the 10 furlongs, I estimate that the initial mile of the contest was covered in 1:36.69, assuming even pace (although unlikely) then this equates to exactly 12secs per furlong, a pace that simply broke the trailing pack. 

Conversely, this video shows Cape Blanco's performance in winning the Dante S. at York, where he lowered the colours of the Derby and Arc winner Workforce.

Again, some crude hand-timing estimates a final 1/4-mile fraction of 23.90, much quicker than the Irish Champion S, due to the much slower early pace. (Assuming even pace would work out in the region of 12.5 secs per furlong in the Dante).

This also indicates that Cape Blanco too has the ability to quicken on a decent surface (my speed figures indicate the Dante going was certainly Good to Firm).

Note: After reviewing the Juddmonte International (where Twice Over was narrowly beaten) over the Dante course & distance, the hand timing of the final 1/4 was in the region of 26.4 -

2.5s slower than recorded by Cape Blanco. Although slower going (Good) would have played a part in this, further timing from the gate to the top of the straight show that the Juddmonte's early pace was marginally quicker than that of the Dante.

As you will appreciate, a lot of the above is simply estimations and conjecture, although it does give us an idea of the kind of pace that might suit the 'big 3' at the head of the market.

Once the final field for the main event is established, we can predict the pacemakers and from there make an estimated guess at the kind of fractions to be expected and the main beneficiaries.

Hollywood_G

Meydan recap - Digesting the figures....

There are times when you see things on a racecourse that take your breath away, and dependent on your proclivity, there may be a multitude of reasons to blame for the apparent asphyxiation.

For the National Hunt enthusiast, it may be a bold leap at a tricky open ditch, while a lover of the flat may be more taken with an impressive mid-race turn of foot. Whatever it is; you know when you see it.

Unfortunately, as is often the case in the cold light of day, the breathtaking performance doesn't always turn out to be as spellbinding as first thought.

I can be as visually captivated by a performance as the next, but being a man of the clock, I refuse to allow myself to get too excited until I can fully absorb the final times and crunch the numbers to produce my speed ratings.

Like many, I was initially very taken by two performances at Meydan on Thursday evening.

As I stated here, Mike De Kock's Bold Silvano (SAf) touched down in Dubai with a lofty reputation and some notable showings from the Rainbow Nation in his luggage. Although De Kock reported his stable-star somewhere in the region of 85% ready for his Tapeta debut in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was sent off the 7-4 favourite and did not disappoint his backers.

Visually, the performance was extremely striking, despite the slight edge to the right in the final furlong as, ever the showboat, Christophe Soumillon took a second to admire his riding technique in the giant Meydan television screen. Come World Cup night, the Belgian may not have that luxury.

The second eye-catching Tapeta performance came in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f, where, on a night dominated by Mike De Kock representatives, it was a surprise to see his Our Giant (Aus) beaten into fourth as the 7-4 favourite.

The winner, Hong Kong representative Dynamic Blitz (Aus), is something of a synthetic superstar in his native land with four wins at Sha Tin, and the seven-year-old son of Elusive Quality (USA) became only Hong Kong's third winner at the Dubai Carnival in its seven year history.

Owned by Yam Lin Kee and trained by Ricky Yiu - more famous for the exploits of crack sprinter and 2009/10 horse of the year Sacred Kingdom (Aus) - the gelding was formerly trained by Len Freedman in Australia where he was known as Stage Presence and is a half to Reset (Aus), winner of the 2004 G1 Australian Guineas and Fururity S.

Connections are now keen on a tilt at the G1 Golden Shaheen over course and distance on World Cup night itself.

Now that the dust has settled on the Meydan action I have taken the time to review the above recordings and work the figures - anticipating an outcome that would curb my initial enthusiasm.

To enable some perspective, I will first detail the figures recorded on the Tapeta on last year's World Cup card.

Without my par tables or any of my supporting data then the figures will not mean a great deal, however they will at least provide an indication of the relative merit of Thursday's performances.

G2 UAE Derby - Musir (Aus) 124
G1 Golden Shaheen - Kinsale King (USA) 123
G2 Godolphin Mile - Calming Influence (Ire) 118
G1 World Cup - Gloria De Campeao (Arg) 126

It can be seen that figures in the region of 120+ are the benchmark in order to be competitive in a quest for the big money prizes on World Cup night itself.

Firstly, let us consider the performance of a supposed 85% ready Bold Silvano.

From the 105 races, over varying distances, to take place so far on the Meydan Tapeta, only 9.5% (10) of them have been won by horses that have led early. Compare this with the fact that 56% (59) have been won by horses held up off the early speed and you can see that the job of hare at Meydan is not ideal.

With a distinct lack of pace in the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge, Christophe Soumillon took on the task of making the running and set a fairly pedestrian pace on the favourite, covering the first 600m in 39.4 seconds.

Briefly headed by the eventual second Spring of Fame (USA) with around 1000m to run, he regained the lead in the final half mile and with an 11.34 secs furlong between 1400 & 1600m, effectively put the race to bed with a quarter mile to run. Never in any danger thereafter, he was heavily eased towards the finish to record a final time of 1:57.70.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

From a time perspective, this was not a great performance, and earned a rating of 111++.

However, taking into account the ease of victory, the fact he was forced to make most of the running, not to mention that he was reportedly short of his peak on his reappearance and Tapeta debut, then it is not beyond the realms of my imagination that he improves some 10-15 points (around 6-8 lengths) before the end of March. He will almost certainly be competitive in the big race and at a current price of 11/2 with Hills, he rates decent value.

On the other hand, Dynamic Blitz had something of a perfect trip in the slipstream of Dandy Nicholls' Inxile (Ire), who scorched the Tapeta through opening fractions of 24.10 for the 1/4-mile and 46.87 for the 1/2-mile.

Easily getting the better of the fading pacesetter at the quarter pole, he kept on well on the run to the wire to record a final time of 1:10.47 - only .04 seconds shy of the record set by Alo Pura (GB) in December.

Without doubt this was an impressive performance on the clock, earning a speed figure of 118.

Image: Andrew Watkins / Emiratesracing.com

At the distance, this equates to a performance around 2 1/4-lengths inferior to last years G1 Golden Shaheen figure achieved by Kinsale King.

Immediately after the race, jockey Olivier Doleuze admitted his shock at the victory, and hinted that the horse may not have too much more improvement in him, while his owner opined the opposite that he would improve on his first run since November.

When the gates open in the Golden Shaheen he will no doubt get a scorching pace to aim at, though he will not be guaranteed a near-perfect trip akin to the one enjoyed on Thursday. And although at seven, he may be approaching his sprinting prime and could feasibly improve, we do not yet know who the opposition will be on the big night and he may prove susceptible to other globe-trotting sprinters.

Hollywood_G

Escape the British mediocrity with red-hot Desert action....

Racing fans wishing to escape the mediocrity of the British National Hunt season prior to the Cheltenham Festival are in for a treat of sublime proportions on Thursday evening as the Dubai Carnival at Meydan overflows with top-class action.

The highlight of a mouthwatering card is the second leg of the G3 Al Maktoum Challenge at 1810 (GMT), a contest that sees the eagerly-awaited Tapeta debut of Mike De Kock's World Cup contender Bold Silvano (SAf). Not seen in public since his victory in the GI Durban July at Greyville in his South African homeland 187 days ago, he is apparently working well in the Desert with his trainer reporting on his website that, "Bold Silvano is where we want him to be, well on target and still impressive. He makes the move to the all weather and he's short of his best, I'd say 85% ready-but we're expecting a big run."

The son of Silvano (Ger) was honoured as Horse of the Year after defeating stable-mate Irish Flame (SAf) at Greyville, a performance that prompted jockey Anthony Delpech to hail him superior to Vengeance of Rain (Nz), the winner of the 2007 G1 Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba.

Destined to go to post a short-priced favourite, there is no shortage of challengers ready to dent his lofty reputation if De Kock's stable star does not turn up with his A-Game in tow.

I was overly keen on Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando (GB) for last year's World Cup (see previous post: here) but he was never really in the race under Kieren Fallon despite finishing less than 2 lengths adrift of Gloria De Campeao (Brz). Botti has taken a different tact with Team Valor's charge this year, shipping him to Dubai early in order to better acclimatise the colt for a tilt at the £10 million prize.

Reportedly cherry ripe for this reappearance, a further change in tactic from Botti and Valor comes in the form of Hong Kong-based big-race jockey Weichong Marwing, who partnered Asiatic Boy (Arg) to victory in the UAE Derby in 2007. South African-born Marwing will partner the five-year-old for the first time in Thursday's 9.5 furlong event.

Other notable contenders for the G2 event include last year's shock 40/1 G1 Dubai Duty Free victor Al Shemali (GB). Formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute and third in the 2007 Dante won by Authorized (Ire), the chestnut swapped Freemason Lodge for Godolphin at the end of his Classic season and after a disappointing time in the Royal Blue for Saeed bin Suroor, was transferred into the care of UAE based Mubarak bin Shafya, before heading to Ali Rashid Al Raihe prior to last year's carnival. The seven-year-old returns to the scene of his finest hour some 263 days after a spirited third to Lizard's Desire (SAf) and Gloria De Campeao (Brz) in the G1 Singapore International at Kranji in May.

There may be no horses of the calibre of Workforce (GB) in the line-up, but in Interaction (Arg) we have the 2009 Argentine Horse of the Year, and winner of that year's International Grand Prix Carlos Pellegrini - the South American equivalent to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - for former trainer, Buenos Aires based Alfredo Gaitan Dassie.

He was subsequently sent to the tutelage of French maestro Pascal Bary, for whom he has so far managed only one appearance - disappointing in a bog-like Longchamp listed event in September. Unperturbed by that performance, Bary is confident the horse can redeem himself on better ground, and although unproven on a synthetic surface and possibly needing his first run, he should not be discounted from the reckoning.

After landing his 100th Carnival winner last week, Saeed bin Suroor will be hoping for more of the same at this weeks double header and last months comfortable course and distance Handicap victor Spring of Fame (USA) (speed figure 87) is his sole representative here. The ex-Mikael Magnusson five-year-old needs to improve on that, based strictly on the figures, but that is not outside the realms of possibility and as is the case with the majority of the field, he cannot be easily dismissed.

Verdict:
With a distinct lack of pace in the race, there is always the chance of an upset and it is a race to watch with an eye on the future, rather than a meaningful betting proposition. For those inclined to play, it could pay to take a chance on the fitness angle with My Indy (Arg), Spring of Fame and Trois Rois (Fr) all holding a fitness advantage.

I was very keen on Gitano Hernando for last year's event and with a more measured preparation this time around, he has to be in the shake-up come the last Saturday in March. I've had a little nibble in the World Cup ante-post market at 10/1, in the hope that an impressive performance causes his odds to tumble.

Thursday selections (sorry for the unimaginativeness of some)
Race 2 - Roayh (USA)
Race 3 - Mahbooba (Aus)
Race 4 - Telluride (GB)
Race 5 - Alo Pura (GB) - if absent Our Giant (Aus)
Race 6 - Colonial (Ire)
Race 7 - Gitano Hernando (GB)

Good Luck
Hollywood_G